VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRO #1667/01 1570510
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060510Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4969
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3137
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY 1602
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 0080
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 1513
RUEHSI/AMEMBASSY TBILISI PRIORITY 0203
RUEHTI/AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 4270

UNCLAS ROME 001667 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
BAKU: PLEASE PASS TO EUR DAS MATTHEW BRYZA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EPET AZ TU GR AL IT
SUBJECT: EDISON ITALIA OUTLINES THE WAY FORWARD FOR 
TURKEY-GREECE-ITALY NATURAL GAS PIPELINE 
 
REF: A. ROME 1005 
 
     ¶B. ROME 834 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  A/EcMin met May 25 with Roberto Poti, 
Edison Italia's Vice President for Corporate Development, to 
discuss Edison's investment in the Turkey-Greece-Italy 
Interconnector pipeline designed to ship Azeri natural gas to 
Europe.  Edison has partnered with DEPA, Greece's state-owned 
gas transport company, in the Greece-Italy portion of the 
pipeline.  Edison has committed 175 million euros to the 
trans-Adriatic natural gas pipeline with an annual capacity 
of eight to ten billion cubic meters of gas.  Poti also 
briefed A/EcMin on Edison's presence in Iran, where Poti said 
the company has no "impressive" investments or ongoing 
operations.  End summary. 
 
====================================== 
The Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector 
====================================== 
 
One pipeline, three sections 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Poti said the Turkey-Greece-Italy (TGI) 
Interconnector, for which it has partnered with the Greek and 
Turkish national oil companies, is a "strategic" project for 
Edison.  Construction and financing of the TGI Interconnector 
can be divided into three parts.  According to Poti, 
construction of the first portion of the pipeline, from the 
Shah Deniz natural gas field in Azerbaijan to Erzurum, 
Turkey, will be funded by the Shah Deniz consortium and will 
be finished by the end of 2006.  Poti listed British 
Petroleum, Statoil, and SOCAR (the Azeri national oil 
company) as members of the constortium.  The second leg of 
the pipeline, running from Erzurum, Turkey, to the 
Turkey-Greece border will involve upgrading existing Turkish 
natural gas pipelines and building a pipeline connecting 
Turkey and Greece.  Poti anticipates completion of the 
Turkey-Greece portion of the pipeline by the end 2007.  The 
final leg is the Italy-Greece Interconnector Pipeline (IGI 
Pipeline)  under the Adriatic Sea from Thessaloniki to Italy. 
 The GOI and GOG signed a bilateral agreement for the 
construction of the IGI Pipeline, which Poti said gives 
Edison needed political cover.  Poti expects the IGI pipeline 
to be finished by the end of 2008 or 2009.  When it is 
completed, the IGI Pipeline will deliver eight to ten billion 
cubic meters a year (bcm/year) of natural gas to Italy, ten 
percent of the country's natural gas demand. 
 
Financing 
--------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Poti's explanation of how construction of the 
pipeline is being financed was limited to the pipeline west 
of Erzurum, Turkey, and excluded the pipeline being built by 
the Shah Deniz consortium.  According to Poti, the pipeline 
across Turkey will be an upgrade to existing pipelines.  The 
upgrade is necessary to increase pipeline capacity from 2-3 
bcm/year to at least 10-11 bcm/yr.  Although Poti did not 
provide figures, he indicated the upgrade would not be 
expensive, as it only requires the addition of compression 
stations along the existing pipeline. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Poti stated that DEPA will likely put out bids for 
the construction of the pipeline across Greece.  He noted the 
Greek government (which owns a majority interest in DEPA) 
supports the project, which will double DEPA's assets. 
Construction of the underwater pipeline linking Greece and 
Italy will be financed jointly by Edison and DEPA through 
Poseidon, a 50/50 joint venture formed for the purpose of 
building the pipeline.  Poti said construction of the 
underwater (Poseidon) pipeline will cost 350 million dollars, 
or 175 million each for Edison and DEPA.  He added that 
construction of the pipeline across Greece (from the 
Turkey-Greece border west) will cost between 600 and 700 
million dollars, and said the Greek government will seek EU 
financing for the project. 
 
Feasibility and Availability of Azeri Natural Gas: 
"If You Build It, Gas Will Come." 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The TGI Interconnector is being built in 
anticipation of natural gas exports from Azerbaijan's Shah 
Deniz natural gas field, which Poti said will be ready to 
export natural gas in 2010 or 2011, as much as three years 
after the TGI Interconnector is completed.  Poti said surplus 
Turkish gas (purchased in anticipation of demand which did 
not materialize), perhaps including "Bluestream" gas imported 
from Russia, could be used to fill the TGI Interconnector in 
the period before Azeri gas is available for export.  He 
commented that although the Russian government has opposed 
construction of the Nabucco pipeline (to Austria), its 
attitude towards the TGI Interconnector has changed over time 
from opposition to interest in using it as another means to 
ship Russian gas to Europe. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Although final figures for phase two of the Shah 
Deniz natural gas field will not be ready until September, 
Poti said Edison has already completed its feasibility 
studies.  According to Poti, the project is feasible assuming 
that Azeri natural gas will be available, that natural gas 
prices stay above a certain level, and that transit fees are 
not excessive.  Poti views the Shah Deniz consortium's 
decision to go ahead with construction of a pipeline from 
Azerbaijan to Turkey as a sign the gas will be available.  As 
for price, Poti pointed out that European demand for natural 
gas has been increasing for some time, and shows no sign of 
decreasing.  (Note: Italy is a case in point.  It currently 
produces 40 percent of it electricity using natural gas. 
This number is expected to increase to 70 percent by 2015. 
End note.)  High oil prices will keep demand and prices up 
for natural gas, too. 
 
Possible Pitfalls 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Poti views Albania as being a potential source of 
problems.  Albania will receive approximately 500 million 
cubic meters of gas a year via a pipeline spur running from 
Greece north into Albania.  At one point, consideration was 
given to running the pipeline between Greece and Italy 
through Albania in order to minimize the length of the 
underwater pipeline in the Adriatic.  This idea was shelved 
in favor of running the pipeline south of Albania in order to 
prevent possible problems with the Albanians taking more than 
their contracted share of natural gas from the pipeline.  As 
the pipeline is currently envisioned, the Greeks will be able 
to shut off gas flows to Albania after the Albanians have 
taken their share of the natural gas.  According to Poti, 
Albania is trying to exert political pressure on the EU to 
re-route the pipeline through Albania, and a Swiss company 
has proposed an alternative to the Edison/DEPA project. 
While it is unclear what the effect of this pressure will be, 
it concerns Poti, who noted the GOI is very sensitive to 
issues concerning Albanian political stability.  (Comment: We 
note that neither Switzerland nor Albania are members of the 
EU, and think that Poti may be overestimating the exent to 
which EU and Italian concern regarding Albanian stability 
will affect their support of this economically important 
project.  Poti noted that the added cost of routing the main 
pipeline south of Albania is negligible.  End comment.) 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Poti seemed frustrated by Turkey's slow movement on 
the TGI Interconnector, and seemed to think that Turkish 
recalcitrance is in part caused by concerns over how the TGI 
project will affect Turkey's relations with Russia.  Poti 
noted that a proposal to convert the bilateral Italy-Greece 
agreement regarding construction of the Greece-Italy portion 
of the pipeline into a trilateral agreement covering the 
entire TGI Interconnector has gone nowhere -- the GOI and GOG 
are still waiting for a response from the Turkish government. 
 
============================================= = 
Edison's Position in the Italian Energy Market 
============================================= = 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Edison is Italy's second largest importer of 
natural gas and second-largest generator of electricity using 
natural gas.  Edison is half owned by Electricite de France 
(EDF) and half owned by Italian municipalities.  Poti said 
that by 2015 EDF will consume 40 billion cubic meters of 
natural gas a year (bcm/year), half of which will be provided 
by Edison.  Edison currently buys natural gas from Eni, 
Italy's parastatal oil and gas company. Eni imports gas from 
Libya and Algeria (30 percent), Norway (30 percent), and 
 
Russia (30 percent).  Edison plans to invest two to three 
billion euros in the near future on projects that will expand 
its ability to import natural gas independent of Eni. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Edison has partnered with ExxonMobil and Quatar 
Gas in the construction of a regasification plant near 
Rovigo, on the Adriatic Sea.  Long stalled by NIMBYism, Poti 
said the plant will open in 2008 with a capacity of eight 
bcm/year, which will be provided by Quatar Gas.  Poti noted 
that Rovigo will be the first non-Eni facility to bring 
natural gas to the Italian market.  In this way, he noted, it 
is similar to the Turkey-Greece-Italy Interconnector, which 
will introduce Azeri natural gas to the European market 
outside of channels owned by Eni or Gazprom. 
 
========================= 
Edison's Presence in Iran 
========================= 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Poti said Edison has no "impressive" investments 
in Iran (relative to the estimated 2.5 billion dollars Eni 
has spent there). He estimates Edison has invested between 50 
and 100 million dollars in Iran in oil and gas exploration. 
While Edison has a representative office in Iran, it has 
never had any production in Iran, and has no active wells in 
Iran.  Poti noted that Edison had been awarded the concession 
for the construction and operation of a power plant, but that 
the project never went through because of concerns about 
expropriation.  The way the contract was written, the power 
plant project "was not bankable," according to Poti.  Poti 
did not rule out future investments in Iran, because Edison 
needs oil and gas to fuel its power plants in Europe and "it 
is always possible we might invest" in Iran. 
 
======= 
Comment 
======= 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Completion of the TGI Interconnector will be a 
large step towards making the GOI's vision of Italy as a 
"southern gas hub" for Europe a reality and will help bring 
stability to European energy markets through the introduction 
of market-priced natural gas.  Poti was clearly concerned 
that Russia's influence on Turkey may cause the GOT to delay 
completion of the Turkish leg of the TGI, and cited Turkey's 
silence on the proposed trilateral (GOI-GOG-GOT) agreement on 
the TGI as evidence of this.  While he admitted that a 
trilateral agreement is not necessary for the completion of 
the TGI, Poti said it would provide needed "political cover" 
for the project and said a trilateral agreement might help 
Turkey finance upgrades to its existing natural gas pipelines 
as a part of the TGI Interconnector.  A trilateral agreement 
might also help Edison and DEPA counter Albanian efforts by 
to have the pipeline routed through Albania.  End comment. 
SPOGLI