VZCZCXYZ0004
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSP #0783/01 1792036
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 282036Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7044
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT OF SPAIN 000783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TD
SUBJECT: NEW T&T POLITICAL PARTY LOOKS TO DOOKERAN FOR 
INSPIRATION 
 
REF: A. PORT OF SPAIN 00488 
 
     ¶B. PORT OF SPAIN 00676 
 
Classified By: DCM Eugene Sweeney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Gerald Yetming, Member of Parliament 
formerly with the United National Congress has forged a new 
political party out of three small, struggling parties.  The 
new party, the Democratic National Alliance, has been formed 
in Opposition UNC Political Leader "(Winston) Dookeran's 
image."  Yetming strongly believes that the Democratic 
National Alliance and Dookeran both appeal to a large "third 
constituency" of voters dissatisfied with both the ruling and 
opposition parties.  It remains to be seen if Yetming and 
Dookeran will actually join forces and if they will be able 
to maintain their momentum with voters to win enough seats to 
dictate which party forms the Government.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
YETMING'S POLITICAL HISTORY AND PLANS 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Political officer met with Gerald Yetming, a Member 
of Parliament formerly with the Opposition United National 
Congress (UNC) but now a back-bencher attempting to forge a 
new political party.  Yetming came to the UNC out of the 
National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR), and left when 
Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj was effectively brought back to the 
UNC fold in February (ref A).  Yetming claims that Maharaj is 
power hungry and an "evil, dangerous person who is not to be 
trusted."  The only reason, according to Yetming, that Basdeo 
Panday brought Maharaj back is so that Maharaj could help 
Panday with his legal troubles.  Panday's move may have 
larger repercussions for the UNC:  Yetming asserts that 
current Leader of the Opposition Kamla Persad-Bissessar may 
be involuntarily warming the seat for Maharaj.  Yetming 
speculates that Maharaj will eventually be elected as an MP, 
possibly from Couva North if Panday either resigns his seat 
or is required to give it up while waiting for appeal.  If 
this is the case, Maharaj will clearly be Panday's "anointed 
successor" and the UNC rank-and-file will look to Maharaj to 
become Leader of the Opposition.  Rather than Maharaj 
providing clarity to the UNC leadership, this tension between 
him and Persad-Bissessar is only exacerbating the current 
leadership crisis in the UNC. 
 
¶3.  (C) After leaving the UNC, Yetming joined the Democratic 
National Assembly, a small, struggling political party. 
Recently, the Democratic National Assembly joined forces with 
the Democratic Political Party of T&T (another small, 
marginal party) and the remnants of the NAR to form the 
Democratic National Alliance (DNA).  Yetming claims that the 
DNA only came about because of his leadership. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
DISSATISFIED VOTERS MAY SWING PARLIAMENTARY BALANCE 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4.  (C) Yetming believes that, apart from the core supporters 
of the UNC and the ruling Peoples' National Movement (PNM), 
most Trinbagonians are fed up with politics as they stand 
now.  He further asserts that this "third constituency" will 
likely flock to a party that exhibits clear leadership, 
demonstrates effectiveness and is free of corruption.  In 
Yetming's eyes, Winston Dookeran, embattled Political Leader 
of the UNC, fulfills these requirements, as would any non-UNC 
party associated with him.  Recognizing this, Yetming is 
actively courting Dookeran, going so far as to state in a 
public forum that the DNA's platform was created "in 
Dookeran's image."  Yetming believes that Dookeran will 
voluntarily leave the UNC rather than wait for the UNC to 
expel him.  Once this happens, Yetming is unsure if Dookeran 
will actually join the DNA or if he will form his own party. 
If the latter, Yetming is certain he can form an electoral 
coalition with Dookeran when the elections are called. 
 
¶5.  (C) Given the first-past-the-post electoral system and 
the ethno-political distribution in T&T, Yetming believes 
that a party other than the UNC or the PNM has little chance 
of winning more than two or three seats in the lower House of 
Representatives.  Though numerically small, those few seats 
actually confer immense political power on the leader of that 
party:  the support of those two seats can be enough to 
determine which party sits as Government and which as 
Opposition, making the head of the small party, in essence, a 
kingmaker.  Realistically, Yetming hopes that Dookeran would 
be able to carry a third party, or a coalition involving the 
DNA, to victory in enough constituencies to dictate the power 
distribution in Parliament. 
 
--------------------------- 
CAN THEY MAINTAIN THE PACE? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) COMMENT:  Like Dookeran, Yetming's goal seems to be 
politics based on issues, not ethnicity.  Yet Yetming has a 
reputation as a standoff opportunist and lacks Dookeran's 
growing public appeal.  Further, if Yetming is truly intent 
on getting away from personality-based politics, as Dookeran 
clearly is, his insistence on Dookeran as key to his plans 
seems somewhat hypocritical, or it might be a realistic 
reading his own political weaknesses.  Interestingly, his 
comments about Dookeran's support among the third 
constituency echo former UNC Senator Robin Montano's 
assessment (ref B).  The question is whether or not Dookeran 
can maintain his momentum with the people and if Yetming can 
ride Dookeran's coattails.  It will likely be a long road 
until the next general elections, which we anticipate will 
not be called before they are required in 2007.  END COMMENT. 
AUSTIN