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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. PASS TO USTR/WENDY CUTLER, MICHAEL BEEMAN 
PASS TO INR/B 
COMMERCE FOR OFFICE OF JAPAN/MELCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: DIET MEMBER CHUMA ON LDP ELECTION: RACE IS OPEN 
 
 
Classified By: CG Daniel Russel, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Cabinet Minister Koki Chuma described several 
scenarios for the upcoming LDP Presidential election, including 
one in which local LDP city and prefectural assemblymen play a 
deciding role in who will succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. 
Chuma claimed that front-runners Abe and Fukuda, both from the LDP 
Mori faction, are engaged in intense politicking behind the scenes 
to improve their odds.  Chuma said the role of the so-called 
Koizumi children would be greatest in a runoff in an open session 
of the Diet, but that FM Aso still had a chance to act as a 
kingmaker by throwing his weight behind either of the front-runners. 
Chuma was nuanced in his personal support but he characterized Abe 
as the candidate most likely to follow through on Koizumi's reforms. 
Chuma downplayed the importance of the Yasukuni issue on the PM 
race. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) At a one-on-one lunch in Osaka June 21, Mr. Koki Chuma, 
Minister of State for Administrative and Regulatory Reform and 
LDP Dietmember from Osaka, told the Consul General that there 
are several scenarios for how the LDP presidency race will play 
out. Fukuda remains a real contender, and even Aso cannot be ruled 
out in the event the election goes to a parliamentary runoff. 
 
¶3. (C) Faction leader and former PM Mori and Fukuda himself 
until recently held out hope that Abe could be brought along to 
accept the package deal whereby Fukuda, as "sempai" would serve 
first then yield to Abe after the 2007 Upper House elections. 
Now that it is clear Abe will run there is intense behind the 
scenes politicking within the Mori faction.  Fukuda is a careful, 
traditionalist, methodical politician and is moving slowly while 
gauging his support.  His personality, experience, and 
credentials as a veteran make him quite attractive to many LDP 
politicians.  There is a chance he will drop out of the race, 
although Chuma tended to think he would stay in.  Chuma 
confirmed that Fukuda very much wants to become PM. 
 
¶4. (C) Chuma warned me not to underestimate the influence of the 
mainstream LDP veteran politicians--especially the Prefectural 
and City Assemblymen who act as local political fixers and have 
significant clout.  Local LDP members will generally vote 
according to the "recommendations" of their local political 
leaders.  Since Fukuda is respected by many of these LDP veterans 
as a reliable and steady hand, he may do well in the party 
election.  The freshmen "children" on the other hand have 
virtually no influence in their districts and won't deliver 
many votes for Abe.  Now that Mori has gotten Koizumi to agree 
not to come out publicly in support of Abe, the PM's influence 
in the party-wide election will be somewhat muted. 
 
¶5. (C) If the vote goes to a runoff in the Diet, as seems 
likely, then Koizumi's "children's" votes will count heavily. 
In this scenario Aso's interests are served well because he has 
a chance to act as a "kingmaker" between Abe and Fukuda.  Chuma 
also entertained the scenario in which Fukuda pulled out at 
this point but threw his weight behind Aso, who Chuma claims is 
respected for his business experience.  Since many Fukuda 
followers resent Abe, and many other factions are wary of the 
Mori group getting a third consecutive prime ministership, this 
scenario is less far-fetched than it might sound, according to 
Chuma.  Comment: Since Chuma is friends with Aso and from the 
same Kono faction, Chuma's comments should be taken with a grain 
of salt. End Comment. 
 
¶6. (C) Koizumi definitely backs Abe, but he is not going to 
become a puppet-master like previous prime ministers.  He himself 
gained power by flouting the traditional backroom deal system and 
is not going to play it himself.  (Note: Chuma's close connection 
with Koizumi and cabinet positions stem from having been one of 
the earliest backers to encourage Koizumi to challenge Hashimoto 
Ryutaro for the LDP presidency in the mid '90s.  End Note.) 
 
¶7. (C) Chuma said he felt that Abe was far more likely to follow 
through on the reforms that Koizumi has launched (and Chuma has 
helped implement).  He felt strongly that this was only the 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000332  002 OF 002 
 
 
beginning and the important and hard work of implementing real 
reforms lay ahead.  At the same time he emphasized how important 
good Sino-Japanese relations were and was clear that under Abe 
the process would be harder and slower.  China has gone from an 
economic threat to Japan (the challenger that was stealing 
markets and customers) to become Japan's most important market. 
For commercial reasons it was important to improve 
Sino-Japanese relations.  It was also important for strategic 
reasons to prevent the Chinese leadership from using Japan as an 
external enemy and an excuse to resist reforms and democratization. 
That said, Abe would be able to improve relations with Beijing 
over time. 
 
¶8. (C) He dismissed the Yasukuni Shrine as an issue, saying it has 
been "solved."  When pressed for an explanation, he said that 
the WWII survivors group, whose votes Koizumi had sought when he 
initially promised to regularly visit Yasukuni, has atrophied and 
now has very little political clout.  There is no need for the 
LDP to woo them.  Chuma said a plan was well in the works for a 
secular war memorial in keeping with the Constitutional separation 
of church and state.  Yasukuni would not be an issue for Abe, he 
insisted. 
RUSSEL