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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2016 
TAGS: PREL PTER ASEC KIRF IN PK
SUBJECT: TERRORISTS INCREASINGLY TARGETING HINDUS 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 2998 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Recent terror attacks targeting Hindus could 
impact Indo-Pak rapprochement and spark religious tension.  A 
foiled May 31 dawn attack on the hardline Hindu Rashtriya 
Swyamsewak Sangh (RSS) headquarters in Nagpur that would 
likely have led to communal violence was averted because of 
good police work and bad planning by the terrorists.  Perhaps 
more troublesome, terrorists in Srinagar are attacking J&K's 
economy by targeting buses carrying overwhelmingly Hindu 
tourists from other parts of India.  No non-Indians have been 
reported injured or killed in these attacks, but that 
possibility will remain as long as terrorists seek out 
non-residents.  Post is reviewing our Consular Information 
Sheet to see if updates are warranted.  Both communal 
violence and American casualties have luckily been averted in 
the past year's terrorist attacks, but the rising numbers of 
such attacks and their religious dimension represent a 
worrying new trend in terror in India.  This trend could also 
further limit the UPA's ability to take risks in 
rapprochement with Pakistan, especially as BJP criticism 
mounts.  End Summary. 
 
Dawn Attack on RSS Compound Foiled 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Three terrorists were killed by police in Nagpur 
outside the RSS HQ at approximately 4am on June 1.  Police 
sources told reporters the attackers wore police uniforms, 
carried AK-47s, and were Lashkar-e-Tayyiba members; no group 
has yet publicly taken credit for the failed attack.  (NOTE: 
Terrorists have used security services uniforms as disguises 
in J&K for some time now, and we are starting to see this 
more frequently in the rest of India.  End Note.)  Police 
sources and former RSS spokesman Ram Madhav said the RSS was 
warned a week before the attempt, and then again a few days 
prior, to expect an attack on June 1.  Madhav told us that, 
as a precaution, the group changed its external security 
guards after the first warning, so any terrorist trying to 
infiltrate by pretending to be part of the guard force would 
not have a good knowledge of the compound's lay-out. 
(COMMENT: Presumably, this would have also made it easier for 
a disguised terrorist to pass himself off to the newly-hired 
guards as a police officer, or to insinuate himself directly 
into the compound's guard force.  End Comment.) 
 
¶3.  (C) The RSS headquarters in Nagpur consists of two 
compounds, both heavily protected.  The Mahal facility, which 
the terrorists targeted, is used as a training camp; the most 
likely target at 4am would be the group's dawn shaka (group 
exercises) which would have taken place between 4-5am.  The 
other compound, Reshmi Bagh, contains RSS offices and living 
quarters for the group's top brass, none of whom were in 
Nagpur at the time of the attack (nor are they typically in 
Nagpur at this time of year, according to our PolFSN).  Had 
RSS supremo K. Sudarshan been injured or killed by jihadis, 
RSS mob violence likely would have followed throughout India. 
 What we do not know is whether the shaka (or the facility 
itself) was the actual target, if the terrorists had wanted 
to kill RSS brass but had erroneously selected the wrong time 
and location, or if this was an encounter staged by either 
the local police or the RSS itself to stoke communal tension. 
 
Tourism the New Target in J&K 
----------------------------- 
 
NEW DELHI 00003835  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) The May 31 grenade attack on two tourist buses in 
Srinagar that injured approximately 25 visiting West Bengalis 
suggests terrorists may also be targeting (largely Hindu) 
tourism.  This attack on tour buses near the hotel at which 
the tourists were staying follows similar grenade attacks on 
May 23 (bus driver and one Madhya Pradesh tourist killed, six 
injured on a bus in Srinagar) and May 25 (five Gujarati 
tourists killed and ten injured on a bus on the outskirts of 
Srinagar).  Our contacts in the J&K hospitality industry 
report rising cancellations; Jet Airways says they have 
received no new tourist bookings recently, and the manager of 
the Welcome Hotel, perfectly situated across the Boulevard 
from Dal Lake, told us that tourists from Southern India are 
curtailing their vacations, "the season is finished," and the 
bustling Boulevard "looks like there is a curfew."  (See 
Reftel for J&K tourism atmospherics before these attacks.) 
Post is reviewing our Consular Information Sheet to see if 
updates are warranted. 
 
Comment: Indians Restrained ... For Now 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) We cannot authoritatively say why most of the 
terrorist attacks focused on Hindus over the past year have 
stayed below the Indian threshold for pandemonium and mass 
slayings in the streets (as witnessed after the October 1984 
assassination of Indira Gandhi) or a sharp decline in 
Indo-Pak relations (as after the December 2001 Parliament 
attack).  The Ayodhya, Sarojini/Diwali, Varanasi, and Doda 
attacks -- and now the abortive assault on the RSS compound 
-- have all failed to meet that threshold.  Credit goes to 
the PM and his government, and to the Indian public, for 
having resolutely refused to permit exactly what the 
terrorists want: religious riots.  However, if any of these 
attacks had "succeeded" in causing mass fatalities or 
desecrating a sacred Hindu site -- or if any future attack 
does so -- anti-Muslim mobs may yet take to the streets, and 
Indo-Pak rapprochement may suffer.  Already, the BJP's shrill 
criticism of the UPA's Kashmir, Indo-Pak, and security 
policies is limiting the UPA's ability to take risks for 
Indo-Pak rapprochement. 
 
¶6.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
MULFORD