VZCZCXYZ0004
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #2744/01 1740435
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230435Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2629
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 8617
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 4808
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 4715
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4258
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1431
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0423
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA 0395
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ-5 CJIACG//

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AFR/AA FOR LPIERSON 
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON, JBORNS 
DCHA/AA FOR MHESS AND WGARVELINK 
DCHA/OMA FOR TBALTAZAR; CMM FOR JDERLETH, EKVITASHVILI 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN 
DCHA/OTI FOR RJENKINS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR BHAMMINK, PASS TO KSULLIVAN 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR MLATOUR 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN, PASS TO AMB. RAGSDALE, CPATCH, 
KAMPALA FOR MELLIS 
KHARTOUM FOR EWHITAKER 
SANAA FOR MSARHAN 
STATE S/CT VPALMER 
STATE S/CT MHAWTHORNE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: SECDEF OSD SOLIC
SUBJECT:  GETTING TO AN INTERAGENCY 3D APPROACH TO 
COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE HORN OF AFRICA 
 
REF : A) 05 Nairobi 00137; B) Nairobi 01263; C) Nairobi 
 
01653 
 
SUMMARY 
 
1.(U)  USAID/East Africa organized a meeting (June 5 to 
June 7) to advance an interagency planning framework to 
counter terrorism and extremism in the Horn of Africa 
(HOA).  The participants represented all the three ?Ds? 
of the 2006 National Security Strategy? Diplomacy, 
Development and Defense.  Attendees included staff from 
the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Ethiopia, USAID Kenya, 
Ethiopia and East Africa (including staff from the 
Limited Presence Countries/Somalia), USAID/DCHA/OMA, 
senior planning staff from Combined Joint Task Force- 
Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) and the Office of the 
Secretary of Defense/Stability Operations and Low 
 
SIPDIS 
Intensity Conflict (OSD/SOLIC).  This meeting was a 
follow-up to a 3D meeting hosted by CJTF-HOA at Camp 
Lemonier military base in Djibouti (Reftel B). 
 
2.(U)  The three day meeting was a positive step 
forward for further coordination of the 3D strategies 
for the region and combating terrorism in general. 
Participants agreed to develop a joint planning 
framework, mechanisms for coordination, and a 
monitoring process.  Adopting an identified set of 
factors that leaves the HOA vulnerable to extremism 
(Reftel B), participants targeted specific strategic 
geographical areas for further analysis and program 
development.  Another meeting will be held within two 
months.  Improved field-level collaboration, such as 
this meeting, can serve as a model to enhance 
intergovernmental collaboration in areas that are 
unstable or vulnerable to extremism. 
 
3.(U) This is an Action Cable see para 17. 
 
 
INTRODUCTION 
 
 
4.(SBU) USAID/East Africa Mission Director, Dr. Andrew 
Sisson, opened the meeting by presenting an 
unclassified brief of the recent regional Chiefs of 
 
SIPDIS 
Mission (COM) meeting in Nairobi on counter-terrorism 
to help guide the discussions.  He reported that the 
COM meeting concluded there was a terrorist threat in 
the region largely emanating from Somalia, as it is 
widely recognized that Al Qaeda is present but 
supported by other actors.  A regional approach to 
combat terrorism is necessary and should include the 
objectives of denying safe havens for terrorists and 
addressing the underlying social and economic 
conditions that foster extremism. 
 
5.(U) In order to efficiently and effectively employ 
USG resources to counter the threat in the region, Dr. 
Sisson stressed the need to build knowledge capital and 
intellectual leadership and maintain real time 
knowledge capital in order to respond to issues such 
as: where do we focus, what are the underlying 
conditions, what end-state do we desire, how do we 
monitor progress, who do we invest in, and who do we 
partner with.  Sisson strongly emphasized that any work 
from this group must come under the leadership of the 
 
State Department in the region. 
 
6.(U) Jim Derleth from USAID/DCHA/OMA summarized 
progress in Washington since the meeting at Camp 
Lemonier in late February (Reftel B).  He stated that 
high-level support in Washington for 3D collaboration 
is evident in critical aspects of the National Security 
Strategy and National Strategy for Combating Terrorism 
and further exemplified by Congress' passage of Section 
1207 of the FY06 National Defense Authorization Act, 
which provides DoD the authority to transfer funding to 
civilian agencies for reconstruction and stabilization 
assistance.  USAID's Office of Military Affairs is 
leading joint USAID-DOD civil affairs training 
exercises to build intellectual capacity and 
interagency understanding while enhancing operational 
flexibility and impact in Afghanistan and Iraq. 
 
7.(U)  Embassy and USAID teams representing Kenya and 
Ethiopia identified mitigation of the terrorism threat 
as a high priority and discussed their progress in 
developing activities to combat this threat.  The teams 
realize that the process to date has not targeted 
development assistance effectively at populations 
vulnerable to extremism in key geographic areas. 
Collaboration with CJTF-HOA is providing tangible 
results.  USAID/Ethiopia has drafted an innovative MOU 
with CJTF-HOA to address key aspects of program 
collaboration. 
 
 
THE SHINN CRITERIA FOR COMBATING TERRORISM 
 
 
8.(U)  Results of the USAID-solicited counter-terrorism 
study, "Understanding and Responding to Extremism, 
Instability, and Terrorism in Yemen, East Africa, and 
the Horn of Africa (YEAH)," by former US Ambassador 
David Shinn were presented.  The presentation provided 
a recap of the study, criteria for identifying 
vulnerable areas, indicators for measuring success, and 
lessons learned from the Trans Sahel Counter-Terrorism 
Assessment.  See Reftel B (para 5) for brief 
description of the presentation.  A copy of this 
presentation is available from USAID/East Africa. 
 
9.(U)  The Shinn report identified the following six 
main factors that leave the region vulnerable to 
extremism: 
 -- Porous borders 
 -- Fundamentalist religious ideology and extremist 
external influences 
 -- Endemic poverty 
 -- Political marginalization and economic and social 
alienation 
 -- High levels of corruption 
 -- Poor governance 
 -- Opposition to USG policy (added by the 
participants) 
 
10.(U) The participants agreed to use these criteria, 
along with the seventh added at the meeting, to 
identify key geographic areas for targeting interagency 
collaboration, activities, and measurements of 
progress.  Based on the Shinn criteria, Missions will 
also continue/expand/modify programs that are targeting 
 
key vulnerable populations such as the Pastoralist 
Livelihoods Initiative in Ethiopia that focuses on the 
Somali region and several of USAID/Kenya's activities 
in the North Eastern Province including investments in 
health and education sectors. 
 
 
IDENTIFYING KEY VULNERABLE AREAS AND NEEDS 
 
11.(SBU) Employing the Shinn criteria, participants 
identified the following areas as vulnerable to 
extremism and, therefore, focal points for 3D planning 
and program development/expansion (detailed notes of 
these discussions are available from USAID/EA): 
 
 Kenya: 
 -- Slums in Nairobi especially Eastleigh; 
 -- North Eastern Province (Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and 
Ijara Districts, particularly urban centers); 
 -- Coast (Mombasa, Malindi, and Lamu and other areas 
along the coast and Kenya-Somalia border); 
 -- Isiolo; 
 -- Nairobi-Mombasa highway. 
 
Ethiopia: The discussions focused largely on the Somali 
region bordering Kenya and Somalia. 
 -- Dollo; 
 -- Ogaden (Gode and Jijiga); 
 -- Harar; 
 -- Dire Dawa; and 
 -- Urban areas, including Addis Ababa and Jijiga. 
 
12.(SBU)  Somalia was discussed at length but given the 
current fluid situation in Somalia, further guidance 
from Washington is necessary before areas of strategic 
focus can be identified.  There was consensus that 
Somalia remains the epicenter of the threat but all 
3D's seek clarity of direction from Washington and 
would require additional resources and authority to be 
able to proceed with planning.  In this regard, a 
recent cable (Reftel C) prioritized programming options 
for increased engagement, including human and financial 
resources necessary to implement increased engagement. 
 
13.(SBU) Despite ongoing activities, participants 
acknowledged that serious gaps in understanding the 
specific extremist threats related to international 
terrorism inhibit targeted programming in many of the 
areas identified as critical. 
 
 
KEY CONCLUSIONS OF MEETING AND NEXT STEPS 
 
14.(U)  The above exercise led to the recognition of 
gaps in information and development program focus. 
Next steps include creating an interagency assessment 
of target areas to include risk of the extremism 
threat, programs to mitigate the risk and indicators to 
measure progress.  In addition, participants also 
understood that despite the fact that this meeting was 
a significant step forward in working collaboratively, 
there was much more needed on developing interagency 
collaboration.  There was a general agreement over the 
next three to four months to develop and finalize a 
planning framework and coordinating mechanisms that 
incorporate all 3 Ds.  An example would be to develop a 
 
regional strategy drawing from bilateral strategies and 
draft a regional MOU coordinated by USAID/East Africa 
and CJTF-HOA with guidance from DOS/AF/E and affected 
Embassies.  Bilateral MOUs are either in place or are 
in the process of being negotiated and would serve to 
inform the regional MOU.  This strategy would include 
developing a 3D monitoring and evaluation plan 
following focused assessments using the Shinn criteria 
to develop regional and area specific programs.  In 
addition, all agreed to ensure continuity in spite of 
staff rotating out of the area.  Finally, participants 
highlighted a principle of engagement among the 3Ds - 
to strengthen African capacity to manage and respond to 
instability and extremism. 
 
 
TIMELINE FOR DELIVERABLES AND WAY FORWARD 
 
 
15.(U) The participants agreed to move forward with 
priority on improved coordination and integrated 
planning, recognizing that strategies and programs 
should be coordinated and complementary on three 
levels: 1) Among the 3Ds elements; 2) Regional and Bi- 
lateral; and 3) USG and African institutions (host 
nation governments and regional organizations). 
 
16.(U) Increasing interagency liaisons, personnel 
exchanges, and cross-training will greatly assist in 
coordination and improved planning and programming. The 
way ahead detailed below can be achieved through 1) 
strengthened country teams and 2) meeting as a regional 
3D body every six weeks. The next regional meeting is 
planned for late July/early August to ensure positive 
momentum. 
 
17.(U)  The list of actions includes: 
a.Develop and agree upon a vision for an end-state for 
the region.  To be developed at the next meeting in 
late July/early August and coordinated by USAID/East 
Africa. 
b.Discuss current programs and activities to develop an 
understanding of how these activities are mitigating 
g 
the threat of extremism and define gaps in 
programming and information.  To be 
presented/prepared in draft form by each bilateral 
mission at the next meeting in late July/early 
August. 
c.Develop a data collection plan to assess assumptions, 
define needs, fill gaps in knowledge, and support a 
monitoring and evaluation plan.  To be accomplished 
by late July/early August.  An interagency team 
comprised of bi-lateral and regional staff from the 
3D entities in the region will be responsible for the 
success of this task. 
d.Develop a structure to ensure continued information 
flow (as identified in the collection plan).  To be 
finalized by October 30th. 
e.Identify roadblocks and possible solutions.  This 
will be an ongoing process. 
f.Finalize a structure for ongoing planning 
coordination and integration with the end goal of 
developing an Interagency Regional Operational Plan 
to support coordinated bi-lateral plans such as 
Mission Performance Plans, Country Operational Plans, 
 
ns, 
and Theater Security Cooperation Plans.  This step 
would include the development of an iterative 
planning process building on the above listed 
elements to ensure open communication and flexibility 
in operations.  To be finalized by October 30th. 
USAID/East Africa will coordinate this effort with 
guidance from DOS/AF/E and the bilateral missions and 
embassies. 
 
18.(U) While representation from Washington is vital at 
regional meetings, representatives from USAID/East 
Africa and CJTF-HOA will be identified as the key 
points of contact and liaison between Washington and 
the regional and bi-lateral field missions.  A State 
point of contact and liaison still needs to be 
identified as State does not have a regional entity in 
the field. 
 
19.(U) CJTF-HOA will continue to coordinate its country 
plans with USAID and Embassies. USAID Missions will 
coordinate their country operational plans with 
Embassies and CJTF-HOA elements.  Embassies, in turn, 
will guide overall planning as indicated by S/F 
guidance forthcoming on COPs.  BELLAMY