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RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHSK #0565/01 1521223
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011223Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4467
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1165
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PHUM BO
SUBJECT: Lukashenko's State of the Republic Tirade 
 
Refs: (A) 05 Minsk 498, (B) Minsk 558 
 
MINSK 00000565  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In his May 23 annual address before parliament, 
Lukashenko declared all is well in Belarus.  He raised the trial 
balloon of establishing a Party of Power, but said he himself did 
not need it.  He ordered the parliament and government to work with 
the four pillars of society, labor unions, local government, youth 
and veterans' groups, to keep Belarus stable.  On economics, he 
claimed a massive international demand for Belarusian goods exists, 
but acknowledged the poor quality of these goods.  He asserted 
Belarus faces serious but "absurd" pressure from the West, but is 
equally threatened by rising energy prices.  He supported union 
with Russia, but added that Belarus and Russia are still 
determining what form the union would take.  Answering several 
questions from MPs, he announced the GOB would challenge western 
visa bans in international court and ban U.S. and Canadian planes 
from flying over Belarus.  Lukashenko gave one of the shortest 
speeches in memory (less than an hour) and read most of it. 
However, during the Q and A session he seemed more like the old 
Lukashenko, feistally fending off implied threats and criticisms. 
End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On May 23, Lukashenko gave his annual state of the country 
speech to parliament, senior government officials and assorted 
diplomats.  At 53 minutes, this year's speech was less than half as 
long as in previous years.  Although Lukashenko traditionally has 
given this speech in mid-April, he claimed this year that he had to 
postpone his presentation because of elections (March 19) and the 
All-Belarusian People's Assembly (first week of March).  Lukashenko 
seemed to have recovered some of his pre-disappearance energy, but 
he was not the same pre-election firebrand Lukashenko.  Speaking 
less bombastically than last year, Lukashenko frequently mopped his 
face and cleared his throat, and his cheeks appeared sunken. 
 
 
All is Well; Presidential Mandate 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Lukashenko opened by explaining that there are no grounds in 
Belarus for conflict; the economy is growing, changes are occurring 
gradually, and people have the highest confidence in government. 
He claimed the high level of support (officially 83%) he received 
in March elections proves this statement, and shows, "Citizens 
voted for a decent life, for Belarus' independence and well-being." 
Later Lukashenko explained that authorities would continue to work 
for the well being of citizens, but they would also learn to obey 
the people's wishes.  Justice, he said, is finding a sound balance 
between the interests of the state, society and individuals. 
 
¶4. (U) Regardless, Lukashenko emphatically stated that the massive 
support he received for his re-election showed the populace has 
confidence in him and "in the whole system of power."  In return, 
he claimed the government would repay this debt to the people for 
their support, stating, "We are ready to listen to all working 
constructively for the benefit of our homeland, who can hear, who 
want to work and act, but not for those wishing to get incomes from 
political campaigns and processes [the opposition]." 
 
 
Representative Democracy 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Stressing, "We do not declare populist slogans under the 
guise of democratic values, we do not cry about pseudo freedom and 
justice," Lukashenko claimed all of Belarus' major issues are 
solved by the people through elections, referendums, and all- 
Belarusian assemblies [note: which occur every five years].  Saying 
that, "Opponents dwell on the creation of civil society in the 
republic," he argued that a strong civil society already exists, 
with more than 2,000 public associations, 17 political parties, and 
41 labor unions.  Lukashenko claimed the state and society are two 
components of one whole, linked by constructive cooperation. 
 
 
Party of Power, Maybe, But Not to Democratize 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Lukashenko stated that in recent years more and more people 
have asked him to create a "Party of Power."  He admitted it would 
be good if such a party existed, but modestly argued that such a 
party must arise from below, not be created from the top. 
Therefore, he will not try and create such a party, but would 
support one if it arose.  However, referring to himself in the 
third person Lukashenko stressed that this, "does not mean that 
Lukashenko will quit politics for the construction of a sort of 
 
MINSK 00000565  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
civil society and will create a sociopolitical force for himself... 
And this does not mean that Lukashenko is trying to make a gesture 
to signal the state's democratization, in inverted commas, under 
western pressure." 
 
 
Four Pillars of Society: Trade Unions 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Stealing a plank from the opposition, he then claimed 
Belarusian society depends on four pillars, which the state must 
support: trade unions, local councils of deputies, youth and 
veteran organizations.  He expects trade unions to become more 
active in supporting state policies, for the benefit of the people, 
and took the credit over the past several years of making the 
unions, "deviate from those wild and unclear policies they were 
implementing and stay next to the people, reach out to the people, 
and become the people's backbone and carry out the policies the 
people need."  [Note: in 2001 Lukashenko's main electoral opponent 
came from the trade unions.  Shortly after the election the GOB 
took control of the largest trade union group.]  He charged trade 
unions with improving workplace safety and defending workers' 
rights, especially against private employers.  He concluded, "I am 
confident that if people feel real support from the Federation of 
Trade Unions of Belarus, 100 percent of workers will join your 
ranks.  Your authority is a strong means against attacks from 
various international and opposition structures which speculate on 
slogans of protection of human rights." 
 
 
Local Councils of Deputies: Defend Against the Opposition 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶8. (U) Lukashenko criticized local government deputies for failing 
to work with the people to solve their problems.  He was especially 
sharp in accusing them of heartlessness and arrogance in refusing 
to eliminate excess bureaucracy.  However, he did argue that local 
deputies should help the people for their own sake, but to block 
the opposition.  He claimed that presidential and parliamentary 
elections have shown "who and what the vast majority of the 
population" support, but the opposition is planning to take 
advantage of the people's lack of support in local government to 
win seats in next year's local elections.  Lukashenko argued, "Our 
opponents are getting ready for a tough battle, dreaming of revenge 
for their recent crushing defeat and hoping to create a springboard 
for the future.  It will not be the government machinery but 
specific candidates who will oppose this.  Decent, authoritative 
people who have initiative and care about their compatriots' 
problems.  All of us should be working in this direction now." 
 
 
Youth Groups: Working for the State 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Lukashenko charged youth groups with defending Belarus' 
youth from "various information and ideological processes" and 
"those destructive associations which use the immature intellects 
of boys and girls for extremist purposes [the opposition]." 
Lukashenko especially tasked the Belarusian Republican Youth 
Movement (BRSM, sometimes referred to as the "Lukayouth"), with 
leading this charge.  Admitting the BRSM has been frequently 
useful, Lukashenko promised to keep providing them with "all-out 
state support."  He also tied the BRSM to its Soviet heritage, 
"Young people are eager to participate actively in the public life 
the Komsomol once experienced.  They want to improve themselves, 
realize themselves, deal with serious problems for the benefit of 
their homeland... Your main task is to mobilize youth initiatives 
for the sake of public interests." 
 
¶10. (U) He chided the BRSM for failing to "find a common language" 
with students, and ordered them to work more with the Young 
Pioneers and other youth groups.  Lukashenko concluded, "I would 
like the BRSM to become a real leader of the entire youth movement. 
The state is doing its utmost to make sure each young man in 
Belarus is of use to his country.  We view our young people as 
partners of the authorities and expect their more active 
participation in governing the state." 
 
 
Veteran's Groups 
---------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Lukashenko charged veterans' groups, including "labor" 
veterans, with providing patriotic education and a sense of 
history.  Especially now, "when Belarus is facing massive pressure 
 
MINSK 00000565  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
from outside, there is spcial need for veterans' wisdom and 
experience.  I want to assure you, you defended the country in 1945 
and we will defend it now." 
 
 
Quality is Job One 
------------------ 
 
¶12. (U) Switching to economics, Lukashenko stated there is "massive 
demand" for Belarusian goods worldwide.  However, partially due to 
"drunkenness, absence without leave, and low labor productivity," 
and partially due to complacency from this high demand, he 
complained that the quality of Belarusian goods is too low.  For 
example, he objected that Belarusian tractors are often shoddily 
made precisely because of high demand, and that Minsk's road repair 
crews have to "patch the same holes every day."  He specifically 
tasked the Prime Minister with improving quality, but also called 
on all Belarusians to do what they can. 
 
 
State Support Only to Deserving Enterprises 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (U) Lukashenko announced that as of January 1, 2007 the GOB 
would reduce its support, subsidies and tax breaks for many 
enterprises.  "Only self-sustainable and competitive projects will 
be supported," and the money saved would be used for cutting-edge 
technologies.  State support would also switch from large 
enterprises to more small and medium enterprises.  Lastly, he 
claimed that state control over businesses would be reduced only to 
cover, "the fulfillment of their obligations to the state, 
customers and employed workers.  As for other parts of economic 
life, freedom of action should be given to company managers and 
labor collectives." 
 
 
Belarus' International Problems 
------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (U) Lukashenko stated that Belarus has two major international 
problems.  The first is the, "unprecedented pressure from the West 
on our country, constant threats of imposing sanctions and other 
inadequate, I would even say absurd, measures."  The second is 
rising global energy costs.  [Note: He never mentioned Russia in 
context with rising energy costs.]  While claiming the rising costs 
of energy and other basic materials could lead to worldwide 
economic collapse, he maintained Belarus will continue to develop 
and pursue "a multidirectional policy aimed at expanding sales 
markets for our goods."  He added that a unipolar world is not 
acceptable to Belarus, therefore Belarus will continue to be active 
in the Non-Aligned Movement, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 
and will continue to build close ties with states in Africa and 
Latin America, as well as with the U.S. and EU.  He stated that 
China is the main target of Belarus' "eastern policy." 
 
 
Union with Russia Important, But What Kind of Union? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶15. (U) In addition to promoting integration through the CIS, the 
Eurasian Economic Community and the Collective Security Treaty 
Organization, Lukashenko called the benefits of union with Russia 
"indisputable."  However, he added that, "joint efforts are being 
made to find the optimal model of cooperation within the union 
state." 
 
 
Orders to Parliament 
-------------------- 
 
¶16. (U) Lukashenko finished his speech with a set of directives for 
parliament.  First, he ordered them to create a legal basis for the 
decisions made at the All-Belarusian People's AssemblyF. 
Specifically, he called on parliament to reduce bureaucracy, 
suppress corruption, strengthen the family and boost the birth 
rate, streamline the way prices are set, and provide more high- 
quality and affordable housing.  He also demanded parliament 
simplify the tax code once and for all.  Lukashenko complained the 
Ministry of Taxation adopted 123 new legal acts and 69 amendments 
to previous tax bills in 2005.  During the first quarter of 2006 
the GOB amended the tax code a further 42 times, making six changes 
to VAT alone.  He called for parliament to once and for all create 
a stable tax system. 
 
 
 
MINSK 00000565  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
Questions 
--------- 
 
¶17. (U) As in past years, Lukashenko opened the floor to questions. 
Unlike last year when parliament was silent, seven MPs presented 
questions, which Lukashenko spent another 40 minutes answering. 
Most were not broadcast on television.  Four of the MPs had 
questions dealing with Belarus' shrinking population.  Lukashenko 
turned down a suggestion for a new holiday, Day of the Father, and 
suggested that Belarusian women have five children each. 
 
 
Lukashenko in the Protests? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶18. (U) Proving that all was not scripted, MP Olga Abramova (a 
quasi-independent politician) asked three questions which provoked 
Lukashenko's ire: would Lukashenko reconcile with the opposition?, 
why is the GOB closing independent newspapers?, and what are the 
benefits for Belarus in a proposed strategic partnership with 
China?.  This sparked a lengthy presidential rant, in which 
Lukashenko claimed opposition leaders Aleksandr Milinkevich and 
Aleksandr Kozulin asked him not to break-up post-election protests 
so they could "save face."  Lukashenko stated that he ordered 
Viktor Sheyman, then head of the Presidential Administration, "do 
not touch anybody.  Do what they ask -- let them save face."  But 
the opposition then turned "impudent," and Lukashenko had to react 
appropriately.  He then stated, "They are not opposition, they are 
thugs."  Lukashenko further claimed he was "physically present in 
the thick" of the opposition protests on election night.  He 
concluded that he is, "ready for dialogue with those opposition 
forces which set normal tasks dealing with preserving the people 
and the state.  But what dialogue can be held with the current 
Belarusian opposition leaders who are calling for economic 
sanctions against the people?" 
 
¶19. (U) Lukashenko then claimed the GOB had "not touched" any 
opposition newspapers, but that some had closed for financial 
reasons.  He was glad this happened, since these papers only 
published "false and tendentious rumors."  He claimed he is proud 
China wants to be a strategic partner to Belarus, and said Belarus 
is not isolated internationally.  He added that the U.S. and 
Canadian Ambassadors did not attend his speech as they would be 
ashamed to hear him speak the truth.  [Note: No EU Ambassadors were 
present either, and there is no resident Canadian Ambassador.]  He 
concluded that the western visa bans are "funny' and a sign of the 
West's weakness. 
 
¶20. (U) MP Vasily Khrol launched into a sycophantic tirade agreeing 
with everything Lukashenko said and complaining of the western 
media's coverage of the Montenegrin referendum.  Khrol asked 
Lukashenko to make Easter Monday a holiday, to which Lukashenko 
bluntly replied Belarusians already have too many holidays. 
 
¶21. (U) In the last question of the day, MP Nikolay Cherginets 
repeatedly attacked the U.S. and agreed with Lukashenko's 
characterization of western policy.  He then asked why Lukashenko 
had stayed silent when the West falsely accused him of electoral 
falsification.  Lukashenko replied the West could criticize if it 
feels such a need.  He said he had instructed his government to 
challenge the visa bans in international courts and mentioned that 
the GOB should ban the flight of U.S. and Canadian planes over 
Belarus (ref B) as a response to the "absurd" decision of U.S. and 
Canadian authorities to deny PM Sidorsky's plane service. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶22. (SBU) Lukashenko's speech basically repeated the themes of his 
most recent addresses, but his almost obligatory attacks on the 
West have lost much of their fire and even his attacks on the 
opposition were rather subdued.  Perhaps recognizing the threat 
from civil society, the youth and workers, Lukashenko ordered his 
regime to make inroads with these same groups the opposition has 
been courting: youth, the elderly, and local city councils. 
Nothing Lukashenko said indicated any dramatic change in regime 
foreign policy or that Lukashenko might initiate domestic reforms 
now that he has secured his third term.  Most notable was the 
relative absence of Russia in his speech and the adulation of 
Belarus' new "strategic partner," China.  This may reflect the 
current cooling in Belarusian-Russian relations as Minsk and Moscow 
joust over energy prices and the future of the union. 
 
KROL