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C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000560 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BO
SUBJECT: LEBEDKO EXPLAINS HIS OPPOSITION TO MILINKEVICH 
 
Classified By: Ambassador George Krol for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  In a May 23 meeting with Ambassador, 
Belarusian opposition figure and United Civic Party (UCP) 
chairman Anatoliy Lebedko discussed his recent visit to 
Washington, points of disagreement within the opposition 
coalition and commented on Russian-Belarusian relations. 
Lebedko is pushing for the coalition to develop a concrete 
"plan of action" and supports holding a congress of the 
democratic coalition to confirm the coalition's strategy. 
Lebedko acknowledged his positions put him at odds with 
coalition leader Milinkevich, but he downplayed their 
differences as more over form than substance. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) Lebedko described his recent meetings in Washington 
with Washington officials at State, NSC, OVP and on the Hill 
as interesting and useful. He was particularly pleased to 
hear the USG is pushing hard to place Belarus on the agenda 
of the upcoming G-8 summit in St. Petersburg. 
 
 
First Chat with Milinkevich 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Turning to relations within the democratic opposition, 
Lebedko noted that the day before he had his first one-on-one 
long discussion with coalition presidential contender 
Aleksandr Milinkevich. He acknowledged they did not manage to 
resolve all their differences, especially over the 
coalition's future strategy, but he downplayed their 
disagreements as more form than substance. He commented that 
the coalition needs to open up and accommodate the new people 
who emerged in support of change after the March 19 
elections, including finding a way to work with presidential 
contender Aleksandr Kozulin and his people. Lebedko contended 
Milinkevich and  Kozulin were splitting the same 
pro-democratic segment of the country. 
 
 
Coalition Strategy Needs Action Plan 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Lebedko noted his party had abstained from voting on 
the coalition strategy presented and discussed by the 
coalition governing council the day before (note: the UCP was 
the only coalition member not to endorse the strategy). 
Lebedko claimed his party's rules dictate that the party's 
governing council had to discuss and review any document 
before endorsing it. He implied this would take a little time 
but he clearly noted his main problem with the proposed 
strategy (which he claimed had been authored by BNF chairman 
Vyachorka) is its lack of a concrete "plan of action." 
Lebedko maintained an action plan is crucial to move the 
coalition beyond words and rhetoric to keep the interest and 
the support of the new people who want to take action to 
promote change and not simply talk about change. Elaborating 
on the action plan, Lebedko maintained it must contain 
proposals specific to each region of Belarus. He indicated 
the UCP is actively formulating this plan. 
 
 
Needed:  A Congress and National Committee 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C)  Lebedko argued the coalition should hold another 
congress comprised of the already elected members as well as 
the new people and Kozulin's people to show greater unity and 
bless formally the strategy and action plan. Noting some 
coalition members argue a congress could have a destructive 
effect on coalition unity, Lebedko was adamant it would not 
as long as personal political ambitions are contained. 
 
¶6. (C) Lebedko worried that the opposition was becoming too 
pre-occupied with word games, such as whether to call itself 
a movement or a campaign.  He also complained that too many 
look through what Lebedko called the "prism of Milinkevich." 
He contended the national committee created by the coalition 
during the campaign (which he headed) needed to be preserved, 
and actively engaged with the people. For this reason he 
believes the committee should have its own web-site separate 
from any party and keep people informed of coalition stances 
as well as answer questions from interested citizens on 
coalition policies. Breaking the information vacuum and the 
government's propaganda monopoly would have to be a key part 
of the coalition action plan. 
 
¶7. (C) On Russia, Lebedko expressed deep concern Moscow may 
be undertaking strong efforts to absorb Belarus. Preventing 
this had to be a part of the coalition's action plan.  He 
hoped the outside world could help by raising Belarus at the 
G-8 summit in St Petersburg and giving Russia a sharp 
warning. 
 
 
Dispelling Rumors 
----------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Ambassador told Lebedko frankly that some European 
countries present at the Vilnius CDC conference expressed 
concern over undisguised Lithuanian efforts to promote 
Lebedko against Milinkevich, and this could hurt Lebedko's 
and the coalition's image in Europe. Ambassador also noted 
rumors circulating that the USG supports Lebedko against 
Milinkevich. Ambassador reiterated to Lebedko that the USG 
encourages a united democratic opposition in Belarus and is 
not picking favorites. Lebedko expressed gratitude for the 
Ambassador's frankness, claiming he had heard such rumors 
himself. As for his image in Europe, he hopes to deal with 
that when he travels to Germany next week. 
 
 
Lebedko Reelected As Chairman 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) On May 28, the UCP reelected Lebedko as its chairman 
during the party's tenth convention. Lebedko was supported by 
138 of the 164 delegates. Vladimir Chervonenko, the chairman 
of the UCP regional organization in Grodno, and Igor 
Shinkarik, chairman of the Minsk city organization, were 
elected deputy chairpersons.  Lyudmila Gryaznova and Yaroslav 
Romanchuk were reelected as deputy chairpersons. 
 
¶10.  (U) The UCP also adopted a resolution calling for a 
second Congress of Democratic Forces to discuss the recent 
presidential campaign and to define the opposition's strategy 
for the post-election period.  Lebedko suggested that 
Kozulin's supporters and those who demonstrated in October 
Square should participate in the congress. 
 
¶11.  (U) The convention also voted to increase efforts to 
delegitimize Lukashenko's government. These efforts would 
include a campaign called "Solidarity for Freedom" to 
pressure the government to release all political prisoners, 
inform the public about the human rights situation in 
Belarus, and bring the regime before an international 
tribunal. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C)  COMMENT: Lebedko claimed he has no intention of 
splitting the coalition and only wants to strengthen it. It 
is clear, however he thinks Milinkevich is less action 
oriented than he would like and acknowledges Milinkevich only 
as a leader but not the leader of the democratic opposition. 
It is a good sign he and Milinkevich agreed they needed to 
have more one-on-one discussions together as they had this 
week. They will probably never see eye to eye but perhaps can 
recognize the benefit of maintaining at least to the outside 
world and to the Lukashenko regime a united front. 
Krol