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FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003196

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2016
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: BLAST FROM THE PAST: FORMER PRESIDENT ECHEVERRIA
OFFERS TOUR D'HORIZON

REF: 05 MEXICO 6612

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR WILLIAM H. DUNCAN, R
EASONS: 1.4(B/D).

¶1. (C) Summary: In a July 5 breakfast with poloff, former
Mexican President Luis Echeverria Alvarez (1970-76) offered
his views on the state of U.S.-Mexican relations and the
current election campaign. He expressed concern about the
damage the migration issue was doing to U.S.-Mexican
relations and about the possibility that a large number of
undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. could be repatriated to
their economically stagnant states of origin, provoking
social unrest. He predicted considerable post-election
turmoil within the third place Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI), opining that it would have to offer a new image
to the Mexican public -- and possibly even change its name --
to remain competitive. Although the former president remains
frail following a January 2006 stroke, he appears clear
minded, well-informed, and interested -- if not engaged -- in
politics. End comment.

¶2. (C) The breakfast, held at Echeverria's Mexico City
residence, was organized by former PRI presidential candidate
and one-time Echeverria aide Everardo Moreno Cruz (reftel).
Echeverria, Moreno Cruz and poloff were the only
participants. The 84-year old Echeverria suffered a stroke
in January that temporarily left him with partial paralysis.
He appears to have recovered from the stroke and is
well-informed and clear-minded, although his speech is a bit
labored, and he appears to need some help in walking. During
the discussion, he did not raise the issue of the recent
criminal proceedings seeking to hold him accountable for the
killing of student protesters by security forces in 1968
(when he was Secretary of Government) or during the so-called
"Corpus Christi Massacre" of 1971.

Concerned About U.S.-Mexican Relations, Economics
--------------------------------------------- ----

¶3. (C) Echeverria professed great concern as to the damage
that the issue of migration was doing to U.S.-Mexican
relations. He said he feared that if comprehensive
immigration reform failed to pass the U.S. Congress, the USG
would seek to repatriate millions of undocumented Mexicans
living in the U.S. to their Mexican states of origin, which
could seriously destabilize Mexico. He urged the USG to
provide economic assistance targeting those Mexican states
responsible for the largest number of migrants. He also
favored a bilateral migration accord.

¶4. (C) Turning to the issue of bilateral economic relations,
he urged the USG and GOM to work together to address the
shared threat posed by cheap Chinese imports. He argued that
Mexico could not compete with China in all sectors and that
the GOM therefore needed to pursue an "industrial policy"
favoring specific industrial sectors that had the potential
to be competitive.

A Debilitated PRI Cries Out for Help
------------------------------------

¶5. (C) Echeverria admitted that the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) was severely debilitated and that
there undoubtedly would be a blood-letting within the party
after the election. He conceded that the party needed to be
reformed and modernized but believes it is strong enough to
survive. He predicted that in seeking to rebrand itself, the
party might even change its name. He saw Felipe Calderon and
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as representing the two extremes
in Mexican politics, and said that despite his admitted
weakness as a candidate, Madrazo's centrism and the PRI's
nationwide electoral machine kept him in contention.

Former Presidents Get No Respect
--------------------------------

¶6. (C) In a side conversation after the breakfast, Moreno
observed that once Mexican presidents leave office, they tend
to withdraw from political life and lose virtually all of
their political influence. He said that although Carlos
Salinas had been an exception to this tendency, even his
influence within the PRI recently had been dwindling, given
his poor relations with Madrazo and perceived preference for
Calderon. To further illustrate his point, Moreno said that
former President Miguel de la Madrid (1982-88) recently had
complained to him that Roberto Madrazo had made absolutely no
effort to contact him during the campaign. He added that he
had spoken to former President Ernesto Zedillo last week
about the latter's current visit to Mexico for a conference
on management. He said Zedillo planned to avoid any contact

MEXICO 00003196 002 OF 002


with political figures during his visit, to avoid even a hint
of involvement in the campaign.

Comment: Once a Statist, Always a Statist
-----------------------------------------

¶7. (C) Comment: Echeverria appeared especially interested
in discussing events during his presidency, particularly his
dealings with President Nixon over the admission into the UN
of the People's Republic of China, and his state visit to
Beijing and meeting with Mao. Notwithstanding his call for
remaking the image of the PRI, it appears that the hard-line
PRIista remains a dyed-in-the-wool statist, philosophically
opposed to the free market policies of the last two PRI
presidents.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

BASSETT