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66879
2006-06-06 13:29:00
06MEXICO3081
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL

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TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MX
SUBJECT: PAN LEGISLATORS OPINE ON CAMPAIGN/PARTY DYNAMICS 
AND ROLE OF THE NEXT CONGRESS  
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR LESLIE BASSETT, REASONS; 1. 
4(B/D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  In separate meetings with TDY Poloff, both 
Senator Maria Luisa Calderon (sister of ruling National 
Action Party (PAN) presidential Candidate Felipe Calderon) 
and Federal Deputy German Martinez (party representative to 
the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE)), expressed their 
frustrations with the leadership of PAN president Manuel 
Espino and the influx of Institutional Revolutionary Party 
(PRI) refugees into the party.  Calderon and Martinez also 
agreed that the PAN will not have a majority in Congress, but 
are confident they will increase their representation 
substantially, giving a potential Felipe Calderon 
administration a good shot at forming a working majority. 
Not surprisingly, US migration legislation and border 
security were hot topics for the PAN legislators. End 
SUMMARY. 
 
A Divided PRI Up For Grabs as the PAN Calculates 
Congressional Odds 
 
¶2. (C) When asked about the role of Congress in the next 
sexenio both confided that PAN internal polls show that it 
will be almost impossible for the party to have a majority in 
the lower house.  The PAN could increase its representation 
to about 225 seats.  The Senator predicted that Calderon 
would be more successful at working with Congress because he 
is a much better politician than President Vicente Fox.  She 
commented that President Fox never  learned how to deal with 
Congress.  Fox still acts like a CEO, she continued, overly 
pragmatic and wanting to win at all costs.  Candidate 
Calderon, she said, would work with the opposition but 
without weakening the power or authority of the Executive. 
While Senator Calderon admitted the possibility of a special 
session of the sitting Congress, she said it would only take 
place after the elections and with the concurrence of the 
president-elect.  If Calderon wins, he will seek to revisit 
the radio portion of the TV and Radio law and clean up minor 
lose-ends of the Fox administration. 
 
¶3. (C) While Martinez did not speculate on a special session, 
he did predict the PRI will play a key role in the next 
Congress, but not as the united force of the past.  The party 
will split when Roberto Madrazo loses, Martinez suggested, 
and the subsequent infighting will spill into Congress.  The 
PRI Governors will control their federal legislators in the 
lower house, while PRI strongman Manlio Fabio Beltrones will 
control the Senate.  PRI dinosaur Manuel Bartlett's decision 
to support Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador is the latest sign of the fractures 
deepening within the PRI.  Martinez  is confidant that with 
the support of younger, progressive PRI Governors, such as 
Enrique Pena Nieto (Edomex), Eduardo Bours (Sonora) and 
Eugenio Hernandez (Tamaulipas), a PAN government will have 
enough votes in Congress to have a working majority. 
Martinez said that the PRI as we know it will cease to exist 
on July the third, a victim of defeat and the financial 
consequences of bad decision-making by candidate Madrazo. 
Madrazo's decision to ally with the Green Party, for example, 
will cost the PRI eight percent of federal subsidies (which 
are calculated on the basis of the vote each party attains). 
The central PRI structure was already short of money, and a 
poor showing in the July vote would further exacerbate its 
financial woes. 
Making Deals with the Devil 
 
¶4. (C) On the issue of former and current PRI officials 
joining the PAN, the Senator firmly stated that the party's 
National Executive Committee and the campaign are two 
different organizations.  According to Calderon and Martinez, 
PAN President Manuel Espino's performance has been awful for 
several reasons, including making deals with the devil 
(suggesting the PRI).  Martinez added that Espino, who is 
close to first lady Marta Sahagun, tramples all over PAN 
principles in his zest to get votes, wherever possible.  The 
Senator said that Espino, not Calderon, has given priority to 
non-PAN politicos who bring votes, not values, to the party. 
As a result the presidential campaign and the party are 
somewhat distant.  According to Martinez, some PRIistas are 
more acceptable than others.  For example, former PRI 
president Genaro Borrego (who resigned from the party 6/5) 
came from a primarily PANista family.  Luis Tellez, a Zedillo 
cabinet member set to support Calderon, is a technocrat who 
is almost apolitical.  On the other hand, Ruben Mendoza, 
former candidate for governor of Edomex,  was a colossal 
disaster.  Martinez squarely blames Espino for pushing 
forward Mendoza's nomination and costing the PAN a very 
public setback.  On the subject of acceptable technocrats, 
the Senator confirmed that IMF deputy managing director 
 
MEXICO 00003081  002 OF 002 
 
 
Agustin Carstens, a PRI member, has been touted as a 
potential Secretary of Finance under a Calderon 
administration.  She said that her brother is pragmatic 
enough to choose the best man to run the economy even if the 
person is not a PANista.  The Senator did add that Calderon 
would place trusted aides in Under Secretary positions to 
keep an eye on those non-PANista Secretaries. 
Sojo Factor and Other Campaign Issues 
 
¶5. (C) Martinez told us that Fox advisor Eduardo Sojo has 
been a calming influence with the relatively young Calderon 
team.  Sojo participates in war room meetings and serves as a 
link between the campaign and Los Pinos.  Martinez added that 
Calderon likes Sojo and expects him to play a significant 
role in a possible Calderon administration.  Martinez 
confirmed reports that the Calderon team is not working with 
teachers' union (SNTE) president Elba Esther Gordillo -- 
because she wanted too much in exchange for her union's 
support.  (Note:  It thus seems likely that her competing 
presidential candidate, Roberto Campa, will finish the race 
under the "New Alliance" banner.  End Note). 
 
¶6. (C) Martinez was not terribly disappointed with IFE's 
ruling against the PAN's "AMLO is a danger to Mexico" spots 
and said the campaign has already moved on.  The strategy now 
is to focus on the debate, he said.  If Calderon does well 
and it is reflected in post debate polls, the campaign will 
take a more passive approach and act presidential.  On the 
other hand, if Lopez Obrador does better than expected, the 
Calderon campaign will go back to being aggressive.  Martinez 
expects the debate to be tough for Calderon, and believes 
Lopez Obrador will quickly turn the event into a "good vs. 
evil" exercise.  Martinez, like many in the PAN, dismissed 
the PRI, and suggested that PRI candidate Madrazo's recent 
overtures to the PRD reflect desperation.  Martinez added 
that any PRI-PRD alliance hurts Lopez Obrador and helps 
Madrazo.  It also helps the PAN because they can easily paint 
both opponents with the same brush, however, Martinez said 
the campaign is worried that a PRI-PRD alliance could spark 
unrest if Calderon only wins by a couple of points. 
 
Cabinet Selections and other Key Bilateral Issues 
 
¶7. (C) Martinez stressed that candidate Calderon has a great 
deal of confidence in the military (SEDENA), and in current 
Secretary of Defense Vega.  Calderon will keep with tradition 
 
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and allow Gen. Vega to submit his top five choices for his 
replacement.  Calderon will be very involved with all 
Secretariats, not just SEDENA, while he learns the issues. 
 
SIPDIS 
Only after Calderon feels comfortable with the agenda, 
Martinez predicted, will he delegate to his Cabinet members. 
Martinez said that besides migration, Calderon,s priority in 
his foreign policy with Washington will be to shift the 
public debate on border security.  According to Martinez, 
Calderon wants Mexico to take more ownership of issue and be 
a more active partner with Washington.  The goal of a 
Calderon administration would be to find commonalties between 
terrorism-security and narco-security.  Economics will be 
another key priority. 
 
Comment 
 
¶8.  (C)  Both Senator Calderon and Martinez indicated that 
tensions between the campaign and the PAN party structure 
remain  strong even at this late date in the campaign, and 
after Calderon's brief but impressive rise in the polls.  The 
campaign and the party have been effective partners in the 
effort to win as large a PAN faction in Congress as possible, 
and in putting out effective messages against the other 
presidential candidates.  After the election, especially if 
Calderon wins, he may well try to shake up party leadership 
to better reflect his priorities. 
 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA