VZCZCXRO6119
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2602/01 1811314
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 301314Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5517
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOE NEA/ARP, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS 
FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN PINR KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: PRO-REFORM CANDIDATES WIN 
LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN JUNE 29 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 2600 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 2593 
     ¶C. KUWAIT 2568 
     ¶D. KUWAIT 2394 
     ¶E. KUWAIT 2392 
     ¶F. KUWAIT 1638 
     ¶G. KUWAIT 1637 
 
Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) Summary and comment: Pro-reform candidates won a 
resounding victory in the June 29 parliamentary elections as 
voters sent a clear message to the Government on the need for 
political reform to combat corruption.  Pro-reform MPs now 
have a clear majority (34) in the 65-member Parliament. 
Overall Islamist representation increased from 15 to 18 seats 
with the bulk of these gains going to the Islamic 
Constitutional Movement (ICM), the political arm of the 
Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood.  Shi'a representation fell by one 
seat to four total; two pro-Government Shi'a MPs were 
replaced by two pro-reform, but also Iranian-leaning, Shi'a 
candidates.  Although female turnout was low and none of the 
27 female candidates were elected, women's participation in 
these elections for the first time in Kuwait's history had a 
tremendous impact and directly contributed to the reformers' 
victory.  The outcome of the election demonstrates the 
wellspring of popular support for reform and presents a 
direct challenge to the Government, and the Al-Sabah family 
in particular.  The challenge for reformers will be holding 
together the fragile liberal-Islamist coalition at the heart 
of the pro-reform alliance.  If it holds together, this 
pro-reform alliance will be a force for political change. 
Ultimately, these elections are unlikely to significantly 
impact the close U.S.-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship. 
Kuwaiti Islamists are not monolithic and largely support 
Kuwait's strategic relationship with the U.S.  The election 
of more reformers will put more pressure on the Government to 
implement political reforms, though it may further delay 
passage of Project Kuwait.  End summary and comment. 
 
A Landslide Victory for Reformers 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C/NF) Pro-reform candidates won a landslide victory in 
Kuwait's June 29 parliamentary elections, gaining a clear 
majority (34) of the 65-member Parliament.  (Note: The Prime 
Minister is required to appoint one elected member of 
Parliament (MP) as a Minister.  Therefore, there are always 
49 elected MPs and 16 Cabinet Ministers, who serve as ex 
officio MPs, in Parliament.  End note.)  The elections were 
precipitated by the Amir's dissolution of Parliament on May 
21 after the Government and pro-reform MPs failed to reach 
agreement on an electoral reform proposal.  This was the 
first national election in which Kuwaiti women participated, 
both as candidates and voters, since being granted full 
political rights in May 2005.  Overall turnout in the 25 
electoral districts averaged 65 percent; female turnout was 
lower, averaging only 35 percent, though in urban areas 
female turnout was significantly higher. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) In all, 31 incumbents were re-elected, of whom 21 
were part of the 29-member pro-reform bloc in the dissolved 
Parliament.  The biggest losers were members of the 18-member 
pro-Government Independent Bloc in the last Parliament, of 
whom 11 were defeated.  As expected, Sunni Islamists achieved 
slight gains, increasing their overall representation from 15 
to 18.  These gains were achieved primarily by the moderate 
and pragmatic Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), the 
political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood (refs F and 
G), which won four additional seats, bringing its total 
representation in Parliament to six.  It is important to 
note, however, that Kuwaiti Islamists are not a monolithic 
bloc, and that their increased representation should not be 
viewed as a threat to U.S. interests in Kuwait or a setback 
to our freedom agenda (ref D).  In one way, their success 
could be viewed as an ideal outcome: Islamists gained enough 
seats to give the pro-reform bloc a majority, but not nearly 
enough to push through their conservative social policies. 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Shi'a representation in Parliament fell from five 
seats to four.  The nature of the Shi'a representation also 
changed dramatically: two pro-Government incumbents, 
including former Minister of Commerce Dr. Yousef Al-Zalzalah, 
were defeated and replaced by two members of the National 
Islamic Alliance (NIA), a conservative, pro-Iran Shi'a 
political association.  The number of liberals remained the 
same with four seats, though Faisal Al-Shaye from the Kuwait 
Democratic Forum (KDF) replaced Basel Al-Rashed.  (Note: For 
 
KUWAIT 00002602  002 OF 003 
 
 
a brief overview of Kuwait's different political 
associations, see our classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/.  End note.)  There 
are also several new MPs whose political leanings are 
uncertain (ref B); it is as yet unclear whether or not they 
will join the pro-reform bloc. 
 
A Triumph, Despite not Being Elected 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) Although no female candidate was elected, two came 
in fifth and one fourth in their respective districts.  Dr. 
Rola Dashti, a high-profile political activist and the 
recipient of several MEPI grants, received the most votes of 
any female candidate with 1,539.  This result is particularly 
impressive since Dr. Rola was running in a hotly contested 
district that included five other female candidates, one of 
whom, Nabila Al-Anjari, also received more than 1,000 votes. 
Despite the relatively low turnout among female voters, many 
in Kuwait are hailing their participation as a momentous 
achievement and an historic moment for Kuwait.  During visits 
to polling stations June 29, Emboffs observed the enthusiasm 
and exuberance of female voters and campaigners, which 
contrasted sharply with the more sedate atmosphere at men's 
polling stations (ref A).  Women's participation had a 
dramatic impact on both the issues and rhetoric of the 
elections, and directly contributed to the reformers' 
victory.  It also broke many conservative social taboos and 
laid the groundwork for women's full integration into 
Kuwait's political system (ref E). 
 
The Gauntlet Thrown 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C/NF) The resounding victory of pro-reform candidates 
demonstrates the wellspring of popular support for political 
reform in Kuwait and the opposition to corrupt members of the 
Government and ruling family.  According to one political 
analyst, voters have sent a clear message to the Government, 
and the ruling Al-Sabah family more specifically, on the 
"sweeping desire for reform" and their support for cutting 
down the number of constituencies.  The results also suggest 
that despite the rumors of some members of the ruling 
family's flagrant support for pro-Government candidates, they 
were unable to significantly affect the outcome of the 
elections.  One of those most sharply accused of corruption, 
Energy Minister Ahmed Al-Fahd, appeared on Al-Rai TV, a 
private television station, the night before the elections to 
respond to the allegations leveled against him and to explain 
his support for Project Kuwait, an $8.5 billion plan to 
develop Kuwait's northern oil fields.  Clearly his message 
did not take with voters.  The loss of a parliamentary 
majority will represent a significant challenge to the 
Government, which is already suffering a lack of confidence 
from its handling of the standoff over electoral reform. 
 
¶7.  (C/NF) The challenge for pro-reform MPs will be holding 
together the fragile liberal-Islamist coalition at the heart 
of the pro-reform alliance.  Prior to the elections, there 
were some indications that rifts were beginning to emerge as 
each group jockeyed for support during campaigning (ref C). 
If they can hold the alliance together, this pro-reform 
majority will be a powerful force for political change.  For 
that reason, the Government is likely to expend every effort 
to undermine the cooperation between the alliance's 
ideologically opposite groups. 
 
Impact on U.S.-Kuwait Relations 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C/NF) The composition of the new Parliament is unlikely 
to significantly affect U.S.-Kuwaiti cooperation on OIF and 
other key shared security interests.  The increased number of 
Sunni Islamists should not be seen as a threat.  Kuwaiti 
Islamists are relatively moderate by regional standards and 
most support a long-term U.S.-Kuwait strategic relationship. 
Of some concern is the election of two pro-Iran Shi'a 
Islamists, who might use the Parliament as a soap box to 
criticize U.S. policy towards Iran.  It is important to note, 
however, that the Parliament has little, if any, influence on 
Kuwait's foreign policy, which is set by the Government.  On 
the domestic front, the victory of more reformers will likely 
increase pressure on the Government to adopt political 
reforms, starting with a reduction in the number of electoral 
constituencies.  This could potentially lead to a more open, 
representative democracy in Kuwait, which could serve as a 
model for other Gulf countries.  Ironically, the election of 
more reformers could also delay parliamentary approval of 
 
KUWAIT 00002602  003 OF 003 
 
 
Project Kuwait, which is strongly backed by Energy Minister 
Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, who is seen by many reformist 
MPs as one of those most responsible for rampant corruption. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶9.  (C/NF) The Cabinet will submit its resignation on July 1, 
as is customary after elections.  The Amir is expected to 
call on the Prime Minister to form a new Cabinet later next 
week after concluding his traditional consultation period. 
The first session of Parliament is expected to take place on 
either July 12 or July 15.  The new Cabinet is normally sworn 
in during the first session.  Parliament must also vote on 
all legislation issued by Amiri decree during the dissolution 
period.  In addition, pro-reform MPs could introduce, and 
theoretically even pass, a five constituency bill during the 
first session.  Parliament is expected to meet only a couple 
of times before recessing for summer, probably before the end 
of July. 
 
¶10.  (C/NF) Post will continue to follow post-election 
developments closely, paying particular attention to the 
composition of new Cabinet and the cohesiveness of the 
pro-reform alliance.  We are also working on ways to 
encourage Kuwaitis to capitalize on this pro-reform momentum. 
 Just one example, the Charge is hosting an ice cream social 
July 3 for pro-reform youth activists.  Over the longer-run, 
we will also seek to identify potential candidates for 
appropriately-themed IVP and MEPI-funded programs.  Bios on 
the new MPs should be available on our classified website 
later this week. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
TUELLER