VZCZCXRO3337
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKU #2593/01 1791421
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 281421Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5503
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUWAIT 002593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: ELECTION COUNTDOWN:  KUWAITI CANDIDATES REPRESENT 
A BROAD SPECTRUM AND DEFY NEAT CATEGORIZATION 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 2446 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 2419 
     ¶C. KUWAIT 2150 
 
Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary and Comment:  Two hundred and fifty-two 
candidates will compete in Kuwait's National Assembly 
elections on June 29.  Over 340,000 voters will go to 91 
polling stations between 8:00 am and 8:00 pm to elect two 
representatives from each of 25 electoral districts. 
Fifty-seven percent of the voters and 27 of the candidates 
are women, and will be voting for the first time in a 
national election since they won full political rights in 
¶2005.  Observers often divide the candidates into a number of 
categories: reformist vs. pro-government; liberal vs. 
Islamist; tribal vs. urban; service deputy vs. principles 
deputy; etc.  The range of candidates shows that people are 
taking advantage of the considerable freedom of expression 
that exists in Kuwait.  Tribal candidates, liberals, service 
deputies, and women make for a colorful array of choices on 
Election Day but many of the candidates resist easy 
categorization.  Analysis of the outcome will require a 
nuanced look at the array of Deputies to emerge from the 
election.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
Shoo-ins 
-------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  There are a number of candidates whose election is 
considered virtually guaranteed.  Abdullah Al-Fahma and 
Marzouq Al-Hbaini were chosen by their tribe (the Awazim) in 
illegal election primaries to represent the 25th election 
district, located in an outlying area south of Kuwait City. 
Since approximately 70% of the district's population is from 
the same tribe, and since it is taken for granted that most 
tribal (as opposed to "urban") voters vote according to their 
tribe, these candidates are considered to be unbeatable. 
EmbOffs visited the opening night of the candidates, fourth 
joint election headquarters.  PolOff sat next to former MP 
Mashaan Al-Azmi (1999 - 2003) who lost in the 2003 primaries. 
 Far from being bitter about his loss, he was sitting 
prominently in the front row and supporting his tribe. After 
asking about a visa for his friend, he predicted women would 
have no effect since Awazim vote with the tribe, with the 
implication that the tribe had decided on Al-Fahma and 
Al-Hbaini.  The main issue in this election campaign, he 
said, was the government writing off loans to Kuwaiti 
citizens.  He acknowledged that Hbaini was from the Popular 
Bloc, a group of five MPs who do not follow the liberal, 
Islamist, or pro-government strains, and that Fahma was a 
"service deputy".  Thus, while tribal affiliation seems 
likely to carry the day, the tribe had chosen candidates from 
clearly distinct political strains.  Despite Al-Azmi's 
comments about women, female tribal candidate Laila Al-Rashed 
separately told EmbOff that she had an easier time of 
campaigning than her urban counterparts because she had an 
automatic support base in her tribe. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Other candidates expected to win are former speaker 
Jassem Al-Khorafi and former chair of the foreign relations 
committee Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager.  They have waged 
different campaign styles which have been well received by 
their supporters.  Al-Khorafi, seeking to be re-elected as 
speaker, is from one of Kuwait,s richest families and enjoys 
close relations with the Government.  Yet he capitalized on 
the reformist spirit of this election season by breaking with 
tradition and criticizing the royal family.  Al-Sager has 
campaigned heavily on the need for reform and has threatened 
not to run for election in 2010 if Parliament fails to 
seriously address redistricting.  He has reached out to 
women, holding mixed and women-only events for them and 
including several in his campaign activities. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Marzouq Ali Al-Ghanim, born in 1968, has a strong 
chance as a first time challenger. His pedigree is well known 
-- Al-Khorafi is his uncle, his mother served as the Dean of 
Kuwait University, his father was head of the Kuwait Chamber 
of Commerce, and another uncle is a multi-millionaire 
international businessman -- giving him instant recognition. 
He has encouraged respected academics, activists, and former 
government officials to speak on the issues of the day at his 
campaign tent and featured live webcasts of the forums 
(www.marzouq-alghanim.net/live) to attract tech-savvy younger 
voters.  Al-Ghanim is expected to be a pro-government deputy. 
 
Women Liven the Scene at Liberal Headquarters 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
KUWAIT 00002593  002 OF 004 
 
 
¶6.  (C)  Liberal outgoing MP Basil Al-Rashid has slick 
campaign posters featuring an orange handprint, orange being 
the color of the reform movement and the five fingers 
representing reformers, goal of reducing the number of 
electoral districts from 25 to five. On a recent evening his 
large tent was filled with a section of uniformly dressed men 
and a slightly bigger section of colorfully-clad women.  In 
contrast to the men stoically listening to Al-Rashid and 
occasionally sneaking uncomfortable glances toward the 
women's section, the women were buzzing with excitement. 
Female campaign workers, many with hijab and some without, 
wore bright orange scarves with the candidate's name and 
greeted attendees as they arrived.  Al-Rashid, who made waves 
earlier in the week with harsh criticism of Iran, railed 
against corruption in a very polished political performance. 
He was followed on the stage by Islamist former MP and 
candidate Nasser Al-Sane, who has united with Al-Rashid in 
the push to reduce the number of constituencies.  The 
attendees were not all Westernized liberals: a bearded young 
man outside quoted numerous Koranic verses and used the 
cadence of a Friday sermon to urge LES Political Specialist 
into giving up smoking. 
 
Some Races to Watch 
------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Several women are running high-profile campaigns in 
races that will be closely watched.  Aisha Al-Reshaid, who 
launched her campaign in 2005 shortly after the women's 
suffrage vote, is running in a conservative district against 
well known former MPs.  Her campaign has garnered daily press 
attention not only for her outspoken style, but also because 
of threats made and damage to her posters.  Many Kuwaitis 
believe that she is secretly backed by several members of the 
ruling family and her electoral success would not come as a 
surprise, although few would believe that any win was based 
on merit.  Another candidate believed to have secret Al-Sabah 
support is former Assistant Undersecretary of Tourism Nabila 
Al-Anjari.  She has a slight advantage over other women in 
that many Kuwaitis believe that because of her previous 
Government experience, she is better prepared to work in the 
male-dominated National Assembly.  Dr. Fatima Al-Abdali, a 
Kuwait Oil Company executive, has built a steady following of 
both women and men over the past month.  In addition to 
having a well-defined campaign and reading poetry she has 
composed, she has visited schools, charitable organizations, 
hospitals and diwaniyas to meet with constituents.  In her 
final seminar before a co-ed audience, she compared the views 
of men and women on issues ranging from health to Gulf 
security and argued that women in Parliament would be good 
for the Kuwaiti family.  Both men and women have been 
impressed with her intelligence, vision, and commitment, and 
appreciate her calm demeanor and that she wears a hijab, 
commenting that she is a good representative of Kuwaiti 
womanhood. There has been no mention that she also comes from 
Kuwait's Shi'a minority community. 
 
¶8.  (C)  In the fifth district, liberal former MP Ali 
Al-Rashid, who headed the human rights committee and is a 
strong supporter of women,s rights and fighting corruption, 
faces off against Salafi former MP and Justice Minister Ahmad 
Baqer, a staunch opponent of women,s voting rights, and 
Anwar Jawad Bukhamseen, the son of an ultra rich Shi,a 
businessman.  In the previous parliament, Baqer and 
Al-Rashid, who represent opposite ends of the ideological 
spectrum in Kuwait, represented the district.  However, both 
were considered leaders of the reform movement, which has 
created strange bedfellows.  The district could show itself 
to be completely unpredictable by ousting one of them in 
favor of a traditional pro-government candidate like 
Bukhamseen. 
 
The Longshots 
------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  Kuwait Economic Society head Dr. Rola Dashti, a 
leader of the charge for women's rights and strong backer of 
many of the social status issues introduced to the current 
debate is not favored to win.  She is running against several 
well known candidates, including five other women.  Also, for 
many voters she is not considered sufficiently Kuwaiti.  She 
is a controversial personality and for this conservative 
society is viewed as "too American."  Most importantly, she 
speaks Lebanese rather than Kuwaiti Arabic (her mother is 
Lebanese) and her closest supporters say this will cost her 
the race.  A man at a male candidate,s diwaniya had a 
different interpretation of why she would lose.  He asked: 
"how many females have been elected to other Arab parliaments 
where there are no quotas? Middle Eastern societies just do 
 
KUWAIT 00002593  003 OF 004 
 
 
not want female leaders." 
 
¶10.  (C)  Dr. Saad Bin Tefla, a strong Post contact who 
interpreted for George H.W. Bush when he visited the Kuwaiti 
Parliament for the first time after the liberation from Iraq, 
is an outspoken liberal Shi'a and a former Minister of 
Information.  Dr. Saad, who among other projects has produced 
his own English-Arabic dictionary of democracy terms, set up 
his headquarters only a few blocks from the U.S. Embassy.  He 
will probably fall victim to two of the following: 
pro-government MP Muhammad Al-Mulaifi; Hassan Jowhar, a Shi'a 
Islamist; and Salafi Allam Al-Kandari. 
 
A Snowball's Chance... 
---------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C)  PolChief visited June 25 a seminar hosted by female 
candidate Taiba Al-Ibrahim.  The 78-year-old Al-Ibrahim, who 
has already raised eyebrows by declaring herself an atheist, 
addressed a religiously conservative mixed audience of 200 
and argued that citizens should be free to worship as they 
please, but states should be secular.  While some of the men 
questioned whether she wanted Kuwait to be like Turkey or 
Tunisia, her remarks on politics and piety and attempts by 
some to use the latter to subjugate women drew applause.  The 
large crowd is not a reflection on her support base.  Several 
attendees told PolChief they did not live in Al-Ibrahim's 
district and were simply visiting various campaign tents and 
seminars out of curiosity.  Al-Ibrahim's candidacy is 
indicative of the freedom of expression enjoyed by activists 
and the widespread interest in what candidates have to say. 
 
¶12.  (C) Two blocks from the U.S. Embassy, a candidate who 
made a fortune in the slaughterhouse business held a campaign 
event on June 25.  If elected, he would be a typical "service 
deputy," helping constituents get jobs and complete various 
transactions requiring wasta ("connections" or "influence"). 
As grilled meats, salads, and desserts were laid before 
EmbOffs, Muhammad Al-Hfaiti, the Clown Prince of Kuwaiti 
electoral politics, sat down.  This Oklahoma-educated 
veterinarian has run half-serious election campaigns a number 
of times.  His events have traditionally been some of the 
best-attended in Kuwait because of his wit, though the 35 
votes he got in 2003 was actually an improvement from 
previous years.  Religious fundamentalists scared him into 
abandoning his campaign this year because he had called for 
legalizing alcohol.  Hfaiti told Poloff "how many people 
drink every weekend in the states, 45%? I personally know 
that here in Kuwait it's 75%!" 
 
"Fundamentalist" Candidate 
-------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  Poloff ended a recent night of election 
headquarters visits at the tent of Allam Al-Kandari, who is 
being supported by the Salafi movement.  The speeches had 
ended, and attendees lounged with their tea.  Many crowded 
around the big-screen television to watch the World Cup. 
While Al-Kandari favors the long beard and traditional 
clothes of a religious conservative, his brother is a 
Western-educated liberal.  He currently serves as Assistant 
Undersecretary at the Ministry of Health for legal affairs 
and told Poloff at an earlier meeting that he hated the 
traditional Kuwaiti dishdasha, but could not wear a suit in 
his current position.  Despite his liberal outlook, he and a 
group of other liberal friends explained that although 
candidate Al-Kandari was an "Islamist," he was flexible and 
willing to listen rather than just shout.  As further proof 
of the night's dichotomy, a young boy walked by in a shirt 
that read "Wanted: Meaningful Overnight Relationship" as a 
20-something sporting a beard meant to convey piety, but 
whose pathetic thinness mostly just accentuated his youth, 
repeatedly invoked the prophet Mohammad in relating his 
efforts to get a British visa. 
 
Kuwaiti Candidates Resist Categorization 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (C)  Comment: This brief tour of the candidates shows 
both the range of opinions Kuwaiti candidates represent, as 
well as the difficulty of categorizing candidates.  The two 
tribal candidates, who should be swept into office without 
serious competition based on their tribal affiliation, belong 
to decidedly different parts of the Kuwaiti political 
spectrum.  Fundamentalists scared off the pro-alcohol 
candidate, yet liberals were found shmoozing at a Salafi's 
tent.  And while most people think they know how women will 
vote this year, no one can be quite sure.  Most of the 
candidates are proud of their pro-American views, so while 
 
KUWAIT 00002593  004 OF 004 
 
 
the election could affect the GOK's approach to domestic and 
family issues, it poses little prospect of disrupting the 
grass-roots strength of the bilateral relationship.  End 
Comment. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
TUELLER