VZCZCXRO5806
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHHK #2709/01 1810921
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 300921Z JUN 06
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7557
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM 
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2031 
TAGS: PHUM PINR PGOV PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR JULY 1 MARCH DESPITE 
ANSON CHAN'S PARTICIPATION 
 
REF: A. 03 HONG KONG 2489 
 
     ¶B. 04 HONG KONG 4029 
     ¶C. 05 HONG KONG 5374 
     ¶D. HONG KONG 2638 
     ¶E. HONG KONG 2003 
     ¶F. 05 HONG KONG 3167 
 
Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Organizers expect only 30,000 to 40,000 
people to participate in this year's July 1 pro-democracy 
march in Hong Kong, despite the high-profile participation of 
popular former Chief Secretary Anson Chan.  Nevertheless, the 
organizers hope that by placing less emphasis on other social 
issues, as they did last year, and focusing on the core theme 
of universal suffrage, turnout will be higher than last 
year's disappointing 21,000.  Whatever the turnout, it will 
be far below 2003's half a million marchers or the 300,000 of 
¶2004.  People's aspirations for democracy have not waned, but 
average Hong Kongers, pragmatic as always, may feel some 
sense of futility about democratization following last year's 
failure to achieve either gradual constitutional reform of 
the electoral system or a timetable for the introduction of 
universal suffrage.  Other factors, such as a robust economy, 
a popular Chief Executive, and the lack of an immediate 
issue, also may encourage a lower turnout.  A pro-Beijing 
parade and carnival, where organizers are offering a free 
seafood lunch and other benefits, could attract more people 
than the pro-democracy march.  End Summary. 
 
Back to Basics 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (C) After a disappointing turnout of only 21,000 people at 
last year's pro-democracy July 1 rally, in which organizers 
tried to increase attendance by promoting a diffuse set of 
social issues ranging from gay and lesbian rights to a 
minimum wage, this year the same organizers are attempting to 
return the rally's focus to the core theme of universal 
suffrage.  Some democracy activists were uncomfortable with 
last year's diverse approach, which they criticized as more 
like a "carnival" than a solemn march for universal suffrage. 
 While organizers have once again invited a broad range of 
organizations and activists to participate -- the catch-all 
slogan for this year's march will be "A New Hong Kong, With 
Equality and Justice" -- they are hoping that those who are 
primarily interested in promoting democracy will return in 
force this year.  Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) member and 
march organizer Jackie Hung told us on June 29 that she 
expects 30,000 to 40,000 people to participate, though many 
independent observers believe the total will be closer to 
20,000, especially given the forecast for scattered 
thunderstorms on July 1. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Whatever the turnout, it seems certain to be far 
below the 500,000-plus of 2003 or the 300,000 of 2004.  In 
2003, a volatile mix of economic downturn, SARS, and Article 
23 national security legislation stoked the anger that 
precipitated a massive and unexpected turnout for the rally 
(ref a).  In 2004, continuing frustration with Tung's 
ineffective governance and the National People's Congress 
Standing Committee's interpretation that ruled out universal 
suffrage for the 2007 and 2008 elections led to 
higher-than-expected participation (ref b).  Those events 
have now given way to a feel-good atmosphere in Hong Kong 
where the economy is buoyant and the Chief Executive's public 
approval rating is 63 percent -- factors not conducive to 
mobilizing mass protest marches. 
¶4. (C) Furthermore, the pro-democracy movement is currently 
at a low ebb following its failure last year to secure either 
constitutional reform of the electoral system or a timetable 
for the introduction of universal suffrage.  An editorial in 
the "South China Morning Post" on June 28 captured the mood 
among many when it lamented that "As the next possible 
opportunity to implement universal suffrage is six years 
away, it is hardly surprising that a feeling of remoteness, 
indifference and futility has eroded the 'can-do' spirit of 
July 1."  Nevertheless, Hong Kongers have shown repeatedly 
that they will take to the streets in large numbers to push 
for universal suffrage if there is an immediate and 
convincing cause.  The surprisingly large turnout (about 
100,000) for a pro-democracy rally in December 2005 (ref c), 
just as the Legislative Council was preparing to vote on the 
Government's plan for electoral reform, was a clear 
demonstration that popular desire for democracy is alive and 
well. 
 
 
HONG KONG 00002709  002 OF 003 
 
 
A Smorgasbord of July 1 Events 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) July 1 events begin with a formal flag raising 
ceremony at 8:00 am at the Wanchai waterfront, with admission 
by invitation only.  Next, there will be a pro-Beijing 
"patriotic" parade from the Hong Kong Stadium to the Southorn 
Playground in Wanchai, followed by a carnival at the 
playground, starting at 10:30 am.  Finally, the pro-democracy 
march from Victoria Park to the Central Government Offices 
will start at 3:00 pm.  The patriotic parade and carnival, 
organized by the Federation of Trade Unions and the Chinese 
General Chamber of Commerce, are expected to attract about 
30,000 people, possibly exceeding the turnout for the 
pro-democracy march.  Soldiers from the People's Liberation 
Army will reportedly march in the parade, which organizers 
hope will help boost the turnout.  Organizers are also 
offering a free seafood lunch and discount tours of Hong Kong 
landmarks as an enticement for people to attend the parade 
and carnival.  The Bank of China (Hong Kong) is reportedly 
giving its staff HK$100 (US$13) in cash and gifts if they 
attend the parade.  Feeling the competition, organizers of 
the pro-democracy march have emphasized that there is no 
reason why people can't attend the parade in the morning, eat 
a free lunch, and then march for democracy in the afternoon. 
 
 
The Anson Chan Show 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Organizers of the march are publicly welcoming former 
Chief Secretary Anson Chan's high profile announcement one 
week in advance that she will participate (ref d), though 
some worry privately that she may hijack the rally to advance 
her own political ambitions.  Chan's decision to march, and 
her calls for Hong Kongers to join her have been front page 
news in Hong Kong all week.  Chan fueled the press frenzy by 
announcing on June 27 that she would talk to the media every 
day in the run-up to the rally.  Speaking on a radio show on 
June 28, Chan advised Chief Executive Donald Tsang to "show 
more courage in pushing for greater democracy."  She also 
blamed Beijing for the lack of progress, saying "In the early 
stage of reunification, the central government had indeed 
implemented the promises made under the Basic Law.  But there 
have been a number of impediments in recent years, resulting 
in a loss of people's confidence in the central government." 
Political commentator Chris Yeung wrote in the South China 
Morning Post on June 28 that Chan is actually taking a huge 
political risk by being so out-front in calling for Hong 
Kongers to march on July 1.  Yeung wrote, "A lackluster 
turnout on Saturday could deal a severe blow to Mrs. Chan's 
popularity and the democratic movement."  Despite the media's 
attention on Chan, organizers are downplaying her 
significance for the rally.  Jackie Hung predicted to us that 
Chan's participation was unlikely to significantly affect the 
turnout, though she admitted that it has increased the 
public's interest in the rally.  A survey published by the 
independent "Ming Pao" newspaper on June 30 found that 6.3 
percent of likely participants in the pro-democracy rally 
were doing so due to Chan's participation. 
 
Chinese Dissidents to March 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Chinese dissident scholar Yu Jie will reportedly march 
as well.  Yu, who met with President Bush at the White House 
in May, arrived in Hong Kong on June 28 from Beijing and had 
no problems getting through Hong Kong immigration despite 
media reports last month that he was banned from entering 
Hong Kong (ref e).  Yu was accompanied by fellow dissident 
Zhang Qianjin, who said that the pair had received a phone 
call before leaving Beijing instructing them to keep a low 
profile in Hong Kong.  Yu said he would march wearing a 
t-shirt with a photo of jailed mainland civil rights activist 
Chen Guangcheng.  While in Hong Kong, Yu also plans to meet 
with Szeto Wah, Chairman of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support 
of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China, a group labeled 
"subversive" by Beijing, and Reverend Chu Yiu-ming, a 
democracy activist. 
 
Catholic Turnout 
---------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Catholics may return in larger numbers this year 
following an apparent boycott last year due to the selection 
of a homosexual rights group to lead the march.  In 2005, 
Christian groups objected to the participation of gay rights 
 
HONG KONG 00002709  003 OF 003 
 
 
activists and did not actively mobilize their members as they 
had in previous rallies (ref f).  Gay rights groups will not 
lead this year (though they will participate) and the issue 
has not been mentioned in the press.  Hung said that Cardinal 
Zen, who played a key role in mobilizing extensive Catholic 
participation in the 2003 and 2004 marches, would lead a 
prayer service in Victoria Park prior to the march as he has 
in past years.  In 2005, Zen said publicly that he would not 
urge Catholics to march -- a statement that seemed almost 
designed to discourage participation.  Zen has remained 
silent this year, neither encouraging nor discouraging 
participation. 
Cunningham