VZCZCXRO8391
PP RUEHGA RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHHA #0112 1651002
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 141002Z JUN 06
FM AMCONSUL HALIFAX
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1026
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0373
RUEHHA/AMCONSUL HALIFAX 1092

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000112 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA ELECTION: INCUMBENT CONSERVATIVES BACK WITH 
SMALLER MINORITY 
 
REF: HALIFAX 0110 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald will serve 
another term in office following the June 13 provincial 
election, but once again, as the leader of another minority 
government.  MacDonald's Progressive Conservative Party failed 
to get enough seats to capture a clear majority and the 
re-elected Premier  will again be looking to form a 
collaborative arrangement with the second place New Democrats 
and third-place Liberals.  If there is a victor in this 
inconclusive contest it was the NDP, which picked up five seats 
to a historic high of 20.   END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  Nova Scotians woke up the day after the June 13 provincial 
election wondering why they even had gone to the polls as 
nothing has changed significantly on the political landscape. 
At the time of his election call, Nova Scotia Premier Rodney 
MacDonald and his Progressive Conservatives had 25 seats in the 
52-seat Legislature, the NDP 15, and the Liberals 10 (There was 
also one independent and one vacancy.)  Now MacDonald has found 
himself in a slightly worse situation with 23 seats, versus the 
NDP with 20, and the Liberals with nine.  One of our IVLP 
candidates, NDP house leader Kevin Deveaux, won re-election with 
64% of the vote. 
 
¶3. All three political parties had big hopes for the campaign. 
MacDonald was looking for a clear majority to end the almost 
three-year stalemate situation his party had in the legislature. 
 The party did not make a hoped-for breakthrough in MacDonald's 
home region of Cape Breton, and lost two races close that they 
had to win, in the district of Queens (usually solid Tory 
territory) and in downtown Halifax Citadel, where Tory 
leadership hopeful Bill Black lost by less than 200 votes to NDP 
candidate (and Consulate contact) Leonard Preyra.  The NDP were 
looking for an historic breakthrough to see them form the 
first-ever NDP government east of Ontario, and while they did 
not get that, they did get their all-time best result.  The 
Liberals were looking to at least better their count in the 
House dominated by the PCs and the NDP; in the event their 
leader, Francis MacKenzie, failed in his bid to be elected in 
Bedford, a Halifax suburb, and will step down as leader soon, 
leaving the party further in disarray. With no clear victor in 
the election, it's now back to the negotiating table to see if 
the three parties can work out another collaborative deal to 
keep the government functioning. 
 
¶4. COMMENT:  Strategists will be going over the results in the 
post-mortem phase of the election to explain just how and why 
Nova Scotians ended up voting for virtually the same 
configuration as they had before in the House.  Whatever the 
reason, the voters have spoken and Premier MacDonald has little 
choice but to go cap in hand to the NDP and the Liberals to ask 
for their support.  We will see an early indication of just how 
successful the re-elected Premier will be in that endeavor as he 
must quickly open the legislature and pass the budget that was 
held up by the election events.  To add to his worries he will 
have to make some required revisions to the document in his new 
quest to pay for a fistful of campaign promises for an election 
he had hoped would have had a  different ending.  We do not see 
any significant changes in provincial attitudes on bilateral 
issues.  END COMMENT 
 
HILL