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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 017671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM AND DRL/PHD 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI PHUM CH
SUBJECT: Moving on Up?  Dongzhou Doesn't Faze Guangdong 
Party Secretary 
 
REF: A) Guangzhou 15624; B) Guangzhou 14820; C) Guangzhou 
 
13564; D) Guangzhou 3991; E) 05 Guangzhou 31940 
 
(U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE 
PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.  NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S. 
GOVERNMENT CHANNELS.  NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite the problems of the December 
Dongzhou and other recent protests, the credibility of 
Guangdong Provincial Party leaders appears strong.  On the 
public side, Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang has given a 
number of well-received speeches instructing local leaders 
on how to better manage land development and citizens' 
complaints.  Meanwhile, within the Party, a mid-April trip 
to North Korea led by Zhang's deputy, and the recent 
sentencing of 12 Dongzhou protestors, lend credence that 
Zhang and his Deputy could be promoted this fall.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Guangdong Province is susceptible to land protests 
because the area is so densely populated with residential 
and industrial interests, which seek to develop the limited 
land outside of cities.  The apex of the problem came in 
December 2005, in the Dongzhou village protest which left 
between three and thirty people dead (ref E).  In the wake 
of Dongzhou and other protests, Guangdong Provincial Party 
Secretary - Zhang Dejiang - appeared to be on the way out 
 
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(see refs C and D).  However, since December, Zhang and 
other Guangdong leaders have been creatively trying to deal 
with issues of land compensation and citizens' complaints. 
There have been a number of speeches in the past few months 
describing the proper handling of land development and 
complaints from the people.  The Guangdong Party School has 
increased its training in anti-corruption and management 
skills (ref B).  It appears that Zhang has rebounded from a 
previous slump in confidence and may perhaps earn a 
promotion by this fall's Central Party Committee (CPC) 
meeting 
 
"Three Taboos" of Land Development 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The first major speech to improve land development 
occurred on December 23 at the ninth Guangdong Communist 
Party Committee (quoted by the People's Daily on January 4). 
Zhang Dejiang offered three "taboos" before building 
projects could begin.  The taboos were, 1) construction 
projects cannot start without complete documents and 
formalities for land requisition; 2) building projects 
cannot go ahead without a democratic consensus on 
compensation reached with farmers involved in the land 
requisition; and, 3) work cannot begin on any construction 
project where farmers have not been paid compensation in 
full. 
 
"Listen to the People":  The Petition System 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On March 24, Zhang addressed the importance of the 
petition system for effective management.  In front of a 
delegation of officials from petition departments all over 
the province, Zhang commented on the role of the petition 
office as a right of the people and responsibility for the 
communist leadership.  He said, "Making petitions is the 
democratic right of the people...It is the responsibility of 
the party committee and the government to solve petition 
problems.  Party committees and governments at all levels 
should attach great importance to petitions, strengthen 
leadership in the petition work, and earnestly solve the 
people's petition problems.  Leaders not paying attention to 
petitions mean they have little feeling for the people." 
 
Petition System Remains only "Administrative" Solution 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Professor Dong Jianxin, a leading political 
scientist from Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Zhang's 
speeches indicate there is new emphasis on improving the 
petition system in Guangdong.  Nevertheless, Dong believes 
that the implementation of petition law at the lower levels, 
not the provincial level, is more important.  Overall Dong 
considered the petition system ineffective because it is not 
"judicial, only administrative."  The judicial branch 
remains very weak in China and the petition system only 
 
GUANGZHOU 00017671  002 OF 003 
 
 
implements party decisions.  In terms of land development, 
currently farmers must work against private developers to 
prevent their land from being consumed in development.  Dong 
said the government should be the middleman to protect the 
farmers, with the judicial branch as a channel for these 
complaints. 
¶6.  (SBU) Dong was unwilling to directly assess Zhang's 
performance, but he did say that Guangdong's strong economic 
position bodes well for Zhang.  Overall the trend in China 
has been to emphasize the quality of leadership, not the 
quantity.  On May 26, the South China Morning Post reported 
that Beijing has moved to introduce a new scheme for 
assessing the performance of local governments.  The new 
assessment mechanism aims to change local cadres' mindset 
from boosting growth at all costs to enhancing the efficient 
use of resources, lowering wastage and reducing pollution. 
This is long-overdue and hopefully will lead the mainland on 
the path to sustainable development.  Next month, Beijing 
will release, for the first time, figures on how different 
regions are doing in meeting national goals on reducing 
energy consumption and alleviating pollution. The central 
government has also pledged to punish cadres who fail to 
achieve so-called green GDP indicators. It is to be hoped 
that these measures will combine to slow down, if not halt, 
the rapid rate at which the mainland environment has 
deteriorated and lead to quality growth. 
The Rehabilitation of Mr. Zhang 
------------------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) There have been a number of signs that indicate 
Zhang has fully recovered from the blemish of the Dongzhou 
incident.  First, on February 16, the front page of the 
People's Daily complimented Guangdong for its successful 
development in 2005 based on "scientific development 
approach".  Most recently, Shanwei prefecturial judges (the 
city responsible for Dongzhou) sentenced 12 of the Dongzhou 
villagers to at least a three-year prison sentence for use 
of bombs to disrupt public order (see ref A).  Meanwhile the 
local party officials involved in the incident received only 
internal party warnings.  The light sentence would indicate 
that Zhang's leadership was not to blame. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Finally, Zhang Dejiang has also gotten more 
attention from national media.  CCTV recently conducted 
exclusive interviews with Zhang Dejiang as well as Liu Qi 
(Beijing's Party Secretary) and Chen Liangyu (Shanghai Party 
Secretary), to review the CPC's large campaign of 
 
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"maintaining the advanced status of the CPC".  The interview 
is said to be soon broadcasted in CCTV and published in 
seven central newspapers, including the People's Daily. 
 
Bright Future for Deputy Secretary 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Moreover, in mid-April, Guangdong Deputy Party 
Secretary Liu Yupu's led a national-level CPC delegation to 
 
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North Korea.  This might be a signal of his promotion.  It 
has been a CPC routine practice to send promising officials 
with great potentials to take official visits overseas 
before their promotion.  Supporting evidences of this "rule" 
have been found from state leaders like Deng Xiaoping, Zhao 
Zhiyang, Li Peng, Hu Jintao, Li Changchun (former Guangdong 
Party Secretary), and Huang Ju (former Shanghai Secretary 
and now a standing politburo member).  Moreover, like Hu 
Jintao, Liu has a Youth League background.  From 1982 to 
1986 Liu was a member of the Standing Committee of the Youth 
League Central Committee, and the secretary of the Youth 
League Committee of Institutions of CPC Central Committee 
and the State Government. 
 
Comment:  Some New Guests at the Party 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Zhang Dejiang governs China's possibly most 
difficult province.  Guangdong has China's largest single 
economy, largest overall population (estimated at 110 
million) and the largest migrant population (estimated as 
high as 30 million).  These factors coupled with numerous 
land and urban protests and intense media attention from 
Hong Kong mean that Zhang's actions are carefully followed. 
Zhang nevertheless appears to have recovered from his 
problems in December.  The recent sentencing of the Dongzhou 
villagers, which likely was influenced by higher authorities 
in Beijing, further bolsters Zhang's credibility by 
supporting the police crackdown as a necessary, albeit 
 
GUANGZHOU 00017671  003 OF 003 
 
 
aggressive, responsive to a violent group. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) This fall the Central CPC Committee will hold 
its 17th Party Congress.  We will see leadership changes at 
provincial, municipal, and county level.  In Guangdong 
Province, one change may include the addition of non- 
Communist members.  On June 1 the Guangzhou Communist Party 
Committee held a meeting to reshuffle its government 
officials on the prefecturial level and declared that at 
least one non-Communist Party member should hold a deputy 
position at each government level.  On the provincial level, 
it will be interesting to observe whether Zhang will be 
promoted to Beijing and replace the sick Standing Politburo 
member, Huang Ju, and whether Liu Yupu will become the next 
Guangdong Party Secretary.  Zhang Dejiang belongs to the 
"Shanghai Gang" (a group of top officials associated with 
Jiang Zemin).  The "Shanghai Gang" surely will not want to 
lose their influence and control by losing Zhang's position 
to the "Beijing Gang" (officials associated with Hu Jintao 
and Wen Jiabao).  Thus the "Shanghai Gang", might make a 
deal with Hu to make Zhang a Standing Politburo member, and 
let Liu Yupu become the new Guangdong Secretary. 
 
DONG