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RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2063

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000335 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS 
PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/28/2016 
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC KCRM AEMR AS TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR 28 JULY 
 
REF: (A) DILI 334; (B) DILI 333 
 
DILI 00000335  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, EXEC, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (U) Summary: 
--- Dili security situation deteriorates overnight; 
--- President "considering all options" for new Government; 
--- Demonstration update: westerners prepare to depart, 
easterners undecided; 
--- UDT leadership announces the replacement of its two Members 
of Parliament; 
--- Government of Portugal activities and concerns. 
End Summary. 
 
Dili security situation deteriorates overnight 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Shortly after 8:00 p.m. last night, there was a 
significant increase in tensions and related security incidents 
throughout Dili.  This followed the national television 
broadcast of newly resigned Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri 
speaking to would-be pro-Fretilin demonstrators --- all from the 
three eastern districts of East Timor --- who were gathered 
approximately 30 minutes outside of Dili.  Embassy contacts 
reported that as soon as the broadcast concluded there was a 
resurgence of the Loromonu (western) versus Lorosae (eastern) 
gang activity that plagued the city a few weeks ago.  There were 
reports through the night of multiple gunshots, hostile roaming 
groups of young men, and multiple home burnings.  Burnings 
continued through today.  Although the official Joint Task Force 
(JTF) estimate was of 16 houses burnt and two incidents of 
gunfire, unofficial reports from individual Timorese were that 
several dozen houses were burnt last night and this morning and 
that sporadic gunfire was heard throughout the night in several 
neighborhoods. 
 
¶3. (U) Some of the participants in the largely peaceful 
anti-Alkatiri demonstrations that have taken place over the last 
few days may have participated in the violence.  It is likely, 
however, that many or most of the participants were the same 
neighborhood-based gangs that have committed similar acts over 
the last several weeks.  Demonstrators to whom Emboffs spoke 
today indicated their unhappiness with the violent turn of 
events. 
 
President "considering all options" for new Government 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite President Xanana Gusmao's announcement on 
Monday evening that he himself would lead the government for 30 
days in order to give the ruling Fretilin party time to 
reorganize itself and propose a candidate for Prime Minister 
(see ref A) sources close to the President report that he is 
actively considering other options that might result in earlier 
formation of an interim government to lead the country until 
elections can be held.  These options include negotiating with 
the Fretilin leadership to name a mutually acceptable Prime 
Minister --- notwithstanding the President's belief that the 
current party leadership was illegally elected and has no 
standing to participate in the process --- and dissolving 
Parliament and calling new elections.  See reftels.  Sources 
close to the discussions said a decision could be announced 
within the next 48 hours. 
 
Demonstration update: westerners prepare to depart, easterners 
undecided 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Organizers of the anti-Alkatiri demonstration, which 
began earlier this week and was made up almost entirely of 
people from western districts --- in part because local 
officials in the East reportedly prevented anti-Alkatiri 
demonstrators from coming to Dili --- told Emboff this afternoon 
that they had taken a decision to end the demonstration and send 
all participants from the districts home.  They reported that 
this decision was made today following a meeting dissident 
leader Major Tara and other organizers held with President 
Xanana Gusmao yesterday.  One organizer from Maliana stated that 
 
DILI 00000335  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
they wanted to follow the President's request to give the 
pro-Alkatiri demonstrators the chance to hold their own 
demonstration.  In addition, he expressed satisfaction with 
Alkatiri's resignation.  The demonstration organizer said he was 
now willing to return home and observe political developments 
over the next few weeks. Other departing demonstrators, in 
addition to reiterating their support for Gusmao, expressed 
weariness with their stay in Dili and a desire to get back to 
their normal lives.  We will continue to check on their status 
to confirm whether the majority are in fact departing. 
 
¶6. (U) Meanwhile, the pro-Fretilin demonstrators gathered about 
30 minutes east of the city remain in place.  According to our 
most recent information, they were expecting another appearance 
by Alkatiri and Fretilin party President Francisco "Lu'olo" 
Guterres this afternoon, at which point they were planning to 
make a decision about whether to come to Dili, continue to wait, 
or cancel their demonstration plans and return to the districts. 
 
UDT leadership announces the replacement of its two Members of 
Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7. (U) The two top officials of the Timorese Democratic Union 
party (UDT) held a press conference today announcing the 
replacement of the party's two Members of Parliament.  UDT is 
East Timor's oldest political party and currently holds two 
seats in Parliament.  According to UDT President Joao 
Carrascalao, the party's MPs enraged the party's governing 
council when they joined other opposition groups yesterday in 
announcing that all opposition members in Parliament should stop 
participating in the work of the legislative branch in hopes of 
persuading the President to dissolve Parliament.  The party's 
leadership was not consulted by the two MPs and Carrascalao 
stated that he found the statement by opposition MPs to be 
irresponsible.  UDT's leadership expressed their full support 
for the President and urged him to take quick and decisive 
action to end the current political crisis.  They continued by 
stating that any interim or caretaker Government would need to 
work with the Standing Committee of Parliament which would 
fulfill the legislative function should Parliament be dissolved. 
 Carrascalao concluded by expressing his hope that a political 
solution can be found among politicians and stated his concern 
that the attempt to start a popular uprising is both detrimental 
to the development of democracy and potentially dangerous for 
the residents of Dili. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although he leads an opposition party, Joao Carrascalao 
is a close personal friend of ex-Prime Minister Alkatiri.  In a 
conversation with the Ambassador just before the press 
conference, Carrascalao expressed strong opposition to the parts 
of the opposition statement that were personally critical of 
Alkatiri and Lu'Olo. 
 
¶9. (U)  Comment:  It is not clear that the UDT leadership has 
the legal authority to replace the party's Members of 
Parliament.  When another party attempted to do this in 2003, 
Lu'Olo ruled that parties did not have the power to replace 
members of Parliament once they are seated.  The UDT leadership 
may be resting its legal claim on the fact that its two members 
were themselves substituted in 2002 for other elected members 
who had resigned from Parliament.  End Comment. 
 
Government of Portugal activities and concerns 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶10. (S/REL/AUS/NZ/UK/CAN) EmbOff met today with several 
UN-funded Portuguese advisors working in an array of government 
ministries.  When questioned regarding the general mood among 
Portuguese advisors and the Portuguese Embassy, the 
interlocutors stated that there was a growing fear that the next 
government --- or indeed even the interim government --- could 
adopt a less pro-Portugal, pro-Lusophone stance than did the 
Alkatiri Government.  Although the issue of Portuguese as a 
national language is still debated in Timor, the Portuguese 
 
DILI 00000335  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
community appears more worried about having a Timorese Prime 
Minister who does not see East Timor as having a special 
relationship with other Lusophone countries.  Should the next 
Government adopt a more balanced approach and seek advisors from 
a wide array of countries, including the United States and 
Australia, the influence of the Government of Portugal would be 
greatly diminished as much of Lisbon's influence here in Timor 
flows directly through these bilateral and multilateral advisors 
rather than through the Portuguese Embassy.  The advisors said 
they had heard that the Portuguese Secretary of State for 
Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Joao Cravinho, made an 
unannounced trip to Dili on Sunday in hopes of convincing Prime 
Minister Alkatiri to resign and influence the selection, within 
Fretilin, of the next Prime Minister.  Cravinho's intervention 
may well have helped to convince Alkatiri to resign and to 
propose his close friend and ally Ana Pessoa to become the next 
Prime Minister. 
REES