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RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2051

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS 
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW 
USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/23/2016 
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC KPKO AS TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP: ALKATIRI MAY RESIGN TOMORROW 
 
REF: DILI  327 
 
DILI 00000329  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy 
Dili, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
(1) (U) Summary: 
---  Alkatiri may resign tomorrow; Gusmao defers his decision 
for a day; 
---  Fretilin mulls candidates for successor Prime Minister; 
---  Ramos-Horta may rejoin Fretilin; 
---  President addresses demonstrators; 
---  Security. 
End Summary. 
 
Alkatiri may resign tomorrow; Gusmao defers his decision for a 
day 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
(2) (U) In a meeting with the Dili diplomatic corps this 
afternoon, Foreign/Defense Minister Jose Ramos-Horta announced 
that Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri has agreed "in principle" to 
resign tomorrow.  Ramos-Horta stated that the President of 
Parliament, Franscisco Lu'Olo Guterres, had a brief meeting with 
President Gusmao this afternoon and convinced Gusmao to wait 
until tomorrow to announce his resignation. Lu'Olo reportedly 
assured the President that Alkatiri has agreed to tender his 
resignation at tomorrow's meeting of the Fretilin Central 
Committee (CCF).  While Ramos-Horta said it was theoretically 
possible the CCF would insist that Alkatiri remain in office, he 
thought this unlikely.  Rather, at tomorrow's meeting or soon 
thereafter, the CCF plans to designate a new candidate for Prime 
Minister to be presented to President Gusmao.  (Article 106 of 
the Constitution provides that the party with the majority of 
seats in Parliament "proposes" a Prime Minister and that the 
President "appoints" the Prime Minister after consultation with 
all parties having seats in Parliament.)  Assuming the candidate 
nominated by Fretilin is acceptable to the President, Fretilin 
would maintain its control of the Government. 
 
(3) (SBU) However, Ramos-Horta also indicated --- in what he 
presented almost as an aside --- that the Prime Minister's 
resignation might not become effective immediately.  He said 
"the Prime Minister is willing to stay on for as long as is 
necessary to help with the budget and other matters."  When 
asked if the President was aware of this aspect of the plan, 
Ramos-Horta responded to the effect that transitions always take 
time and that the President surely understands this.  The 
President, however, has previously rejected compromise proposals 
under which Alkatiri would submit a resignation that would be 
effective at some distant or indefinite time in the future. See 
Reftel. 
 
(4) (C) According to Special Representative of the UN Secretary 
General (SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa, who met today with Alkatiri 
and separately with Gusmao, the situation may be even more fluid 
than Ramos-Horta suggested.  Hasegawa said that as of late this 
afternoon Gusmao was still uncertain whether Alkatiri will 
really resign tomorrow, and that he was still writing his own 
resignation speech to be given in the event Alkatiri does not 
step down tomorrow.  Hasegawa also said that when he asked 
Alkatiri about this, the Prime Minister responded only that "the 
President knows what I have agreed to do."  Hasegawa said he 
also discussed these conversations with Ramos-Horta, who for the 
last several days has been attempting to act as a mediator. 
Ramos-Horta was frustrated at the President's uncertainty, 
suggesting that Alkatiri's commitment was clear but that Lu'Olo 
might not have communicated it clearly to the President. 
 
(4) (U) During Hasegawa's visit with President Gusmao, Hasegawa 
urged Gusmao not to resign, insisting that the President's 
continuance in office is essential for stability in East Timor. 
The President received similar entreaties from many others 
today, including both of East Timor's Catholic Bishops. 
 
 
DILI 00000329  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Fretilin mulls candidates for successor Prime Minister 
------------------------------------------ 
 
(5) (C) The leading candidate to become Fretilin's nominee for 
Prime Minister is reportedly Minister of Agriculture Estanislau 
Da Silva, a close Alkatiri associate and former Mozambique 
resident who lacks the hard edge characteristic of many members 
of the "Mozambique group."  Da Silva is a cabable official who 
is generally regarded as having done a reasonably good job at 
the Ministry of Agriculture.  The United States Embassy has a 
good relationship with Da Silva, arising in part from his 
Ministry's role as principal partner/beneficiary on a number of 
USAID economic development programs.  Nevertheless, it is not 
yet clear whether Da Silva would be acceptable to President 
Gusmao as the new Prime Minister.  Other names being mentioned 
include Lu'Olo, who is the second-highest Fretilin officer but 
who is not generally regarded as being up to the job of Prime 
Minister; Dr. Rui Araujo, the highly regarded Minister of 
Health; and Foreign/Defense Minister Ramos-Horta.  Either Araujo 
or Ramos-Horta would be acceptable to the President, but neither 
is likely to be the first choice of Fretilin insiders, in part 
because neither is a Fretilin party member.  But see paragraph 6. 
 
Ramos-Horta may rejoin Fretilin 
-------------------------------- 
 
(6) (U) In his meeting with the diplomatic corps today, Foreign 
Minister Ramos-Horta noted that he was a founding member of 
Fretilin (then the Timorese Social Democratic Association or 
ASDT) in 1974, but that he resigned in 1988 because of what he 
regarded as ethical problems in the party.  He said he had met 
with Lu'Olo and Alkatiri today and offered to rejoin Fretilin if 
they thought it would be helpful --- "not in order to contest 
the leadership, but in order to make clear that the next step 
[after Alkatiri's resignation] will not be everybody ganging up 
on Fretilin."  He said Lu'Olo and Alkatiri would discuss this 
with the CCF tomorrow. 
 
President addresses demonstrators 
----------------------------------- 
 
(7) (U) At about 6 p.m. today President Gusmao appeared in front 
of the Palacio do Governo to speak to the crowd of anti-Alkatiri 
demonstrators, who now number several thousand.  His speech 
imparted no news but elaborated on the themes of "Viva Timor 
Leste," "Viva National Unity", and "Easterners and Westerners 
Together."  Demonstration organizers report "more than ten 
thousand" demonstrators in Dili, but Emboffs could estimate only 
that the crowd numbered at least two thousand. Embassy contacts 
have reported that there are many more demonstrators on the 
outskirts of Dili who are being prevented by international 
forces from entering the capital, but when Emboff visited the 
suburb where these demonstrators were said to be waiting, no 
such group was present.  There are also reports that people in 
the Eastern districts are being actively discouraged by local 
government officials from coming to Dili either to join the 
anti-Alkatiri demonstration or to stage a counter-demonstration. 
 The demonstration thus far has been peaceful. 
 
Security 
------- 
(8) (U) The situation in Dili today was reasonably calm.  There 
were no incidents reported in connection with the demonstration. 
 The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported one arrest for 
assault during the night.  They also confiscated a pistol and 
191 rounds of ammunition from a police (PNTL) officer who said 
he had thought he was only required to turn in his long gun and 
not his pistol. 
REES