VZCZCXRO0035
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHAH #0644/01 1661106
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 151106Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7461
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2557
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SCA/CEN FOR LFRESE, EUR/CARC FOR KWITMER, BPRM FOR ETOURE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL SMIG TX AM PHUM
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN,S RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA: COLD AND 
BLEAK 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4(b) AND (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) During two conversations with the Armenian Consul in 
Turkmenistan Artak Kalachyan on June 12 and 13, PolOff 
discussed the &cold8 state of relations between Armenia and 
Turkmenistan, the plight of ethnic Armenians in Turkmenistan 
and Kalachyan,s predictions for a possible post-Niyazovian 
future. Although Armenians make up a significant minority 
population in Turkmenistan, it is rapidly shrinking as life 
becomes harder for everyone, but more so if one is not an 
"ethnically-pure" Turkmen. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
1990s: Niyazov the Protector 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Throughout the 1990s, Armenia enjoyed excellent 
relations with Turkmenistan, with many Armenian businesses -- 
especially building subcontractors and electrical firms -- 
working on new construction projects in Ashgabat.  At the 
time of independence, there were over 80,000 ethnic Armenians 
living in Turkmenistan, including a large number who fled 
Azerbaijan during the 1991-1992 anti-Armenian ethnic violence 
in the cities of Baku and Sumgayyit and the conflict in 
Nagorno-Karabagh.  Following their departure, according to 
Kalachyan, Azerbaijani &agents provocateur8 allegedly 
followed them to Ashgabat and Krasnovodsk (Note: Renamed 
Turkmenbashy. End Note.), and tried to incite similar ethnic 
conflicts in Turkmenistan against the Armenians.  Niyazov 
intervened &after just one day8 and thenceforth was seen by 
ethnic Armenians living here as their sole protector in an 
otherwise hostile Turkic world. 
 
2002: Et tu, Shyhmyradov? 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) However, after the 2002 violent coup attempt against 
President Niyazov, Kalachyan said, relations declined 
precipitously, largely due to the fact that one of the 
plot,s main plotters, former Deputy Chairman of 
International Relations and Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris 
Shyhkmyradov has an Armenian mother, speaks Armenian fluently 
and was well-connected to Ashgabat,s Armenian community.  As 
a consequence, the sense of betrayal felt by Niyazov is 
intense, since he stood up to guarantee their safety and was 
rewarded by an attack on his life by one of this community, 
according to Kalachyan.  Already paranoid about outside 
enemies and forces, Niyazov,s mistrust had severe 
consequences among the ethnic Armenian minority, and strongly 
impacted relations with Armenia itself, which Kalachyan 
described as &cold8 with &no hope of progress.8 
 
Armenians in Turkmenistan: Twice Cursed 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Today, Armenians are still one of the largest ethnic 
minority populations in Turkmenistan, with roughly 30,000 
living throughout Turkmenistan, mostly in the cities of 
Ashgabat and Turkmenbashy.  Yet, every year the population 
continues to dwindle as life becomes harder economically for 
all citizens, but especially for non-ethnic Turkmen, who are 
virtually excluded from government positions, according to 
Kalachyan.  Along with the economic impetus, the lack of 
educational opportunities has also forced the Armenian youth 
to study elsewhere, with 15-20 students per year studying in 
Yerevan through an Armenian government program, and even more 
going to Russia to complete high school so that they can 
enter university there.  Kalachyan pointed out that almost 
anywhere in the world that there is an Armenian population, 
there are Armenian schools, newspapers and churches.  But in 
the current political climate in Turkmenistan, &it is simply 
not possible.8 
 
¶5.  (C) According to Kalachyan, roughly 300 families apply 
every year to resettle permanently in Armenian, but there may 
be many more, since although there is a visa regime between 
the two countries, it is &very easy8 for ethnic Armenians 
to get tourist visas, and once they are in Armenia can easily 
choose to apply for 10-year validity residence permits.  In 
his opinion, &many, many more8 Armenians have already 
immigrated to Russia where they have family members and there 
are greater economic opportunities. 
 
¶6.  (C) Speaking more generally, Kalachyan talked about 
Niyazov,s desire to isolate the population, take away their 
 
ASHGABAT 00000644  002 OF 002 
 
 
education, and eliminate connections to the outside world, 
and how it has increased sharply since the 2002 coup attempt. 
 &He is always keeping his thumb on them,8 he said.  When 
asked why the international Armenian Diaspora organizations 
do not openly protest or lobby Niyazov, he said that this 
would only exacerbate the situation.  &If Niyazov received 
such (a letter of protest) at first he would make a few 
changes, but later on would make things even worse8 for the 
lives of ethnic Armenians. 
 
Everyone Hates Armenia 
---------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Throughout the conversation with PolOff, Kalachyan 
whispered conspiratorially, nervously scanning the deserted 
caf in case someone was lurking and listening to what he had 
to say.  He also went on several long tangents, and had a 
variety of conspiracy theories to share.  Some of the more 
interesting ideas he posited were that Israel didn,t support 
the Armenian quest for genocide recognition in the U.S. 
Congress through &its American pro-Israel lobby,8 that the 
Azerbajianis are working to stop the Georgians from selling 
gas to Armenia, that the Russians are paying &big money8 to 
destabilize Georgia, and that the Turkish &special 
services8 recruit ethnic Turkmen who study at Turkish 
universities to create a cadre of secret "pro-Turkey" 
supporters in Turkmenistan for after Niyazov dies. 
 
Turkmenistan Post-Niyazov: Chaos, Turco-Russian Rivalry 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶9.  (C) As to what would happen in a post-Niyazov 
Turkmenistan, Kalachyan was firm in his belief that it would 
be nothing short of protracted civil war.  Describing a 
situation of &intense ethnic conflict8 between the various 
tribal groups of Turkmenistan, he thought that &the 
mullahs8 would exert influence and that &the power would 
have to be divided among them.8  He described Turkmenistan 
as a place that is &very secure8 with Niyazov in power, but 
&without stability8 if he were not in power.  He also 
thought that foreign actors would take part, especially 
Turkey, whom he described as having &many business 
interests8 in Turkmenistan, and Russia, &for the gas.8  He 
said that very few people &thought like the United States 
and the West,8 but that it would come down to which ones 
were on the side of these two countries in the end. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Although Kalachyan comes off as a colorful character 
with a number of paranoid fantasies, much of what he says 
rings true.  While his view is colored strongly by Armenia,s 
often difficult foreign relations, his assessment of the 
experience of Armenians and people in general in Turkmenistan 
is spot-on:  While Niyazov remains in power, ethnic 
minorities must either accept their role as second-class 
citizens or depart to take their chances elsewhere.  End 
Comment. 
 
JACOBSON 
JACOBSON