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DE RUEHDS #1647/01 1661703
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY ADE2F2A3 MSI6119-695)
O 151703Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1147
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE IMMEDIATE 1203
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001647 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
(C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y) PARAGRAPH 1 CLASSIFICATION 
CHANGE TO SBU 
 
USUN FOR A/S FRAZER 
HAGUE FOR A/DAS REDDICK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IGAD PTER ASEC MARR KPKO AU SO ET
SUBJECT: IGAD AMBASSADORS IN ETHIOPIA DISCUSS SOMALIA 
INTERVENTION 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1634 
 
     ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 1638 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: At a meeting of ambassadors from IGAD member 
states and donor partners June 15, the Ambassador of the 
Somalia TFG to Ethiopia, Abdil Karim Farah, told those 
assembled that the armed units of the Islamic Courts Union 
(ICU) were advancing toward both Belet Dweyne and Baidoa.  He 
said that the ICU was seeking to capture as much territory as 
possible to preempt an international intervention.  He also 
claimed that ICU forces were closing cinemas and had shot two 
soccer fans for watching World Cup matches on television in a 
Taliban-style crackdown.  IGAD Executive Secretary Attalla 
Beshir called for rapid deployment an IGAD Peace Support 
Mission made up of Ugandan and Sudanese troops.  The ExecSec 
also declared that "no one is happy to have fundamentalists 
in this part of the world," and that "the TFG is a baby that 
belongs to all of us."  He expressed openness to any 
initiative, and strongly urged that IGAD chair Kenya be added 
to the Contact Group being formed at a meeting in New York 
June 15.  Sudanese and Uganda reps expressed willingness to 
move quickly to support the TFG militarily; Sudan urged the 
lifting of the arms embargo.  The Ethiopian representative to 
the AU, Sahilework Zewdie, said IGAD members had a duty "to 
protect and support a legitimate government regardless of an 
arms embargo or any other consideration."  She added that "we 
have no time now."  The TFG rep stated that the Transitional 
Parliament had approved international intervention, including 
that of front-line states like Ethiopia, Kenya or Djibouti, 
to counter the advance of the ICU.  Comment: the above 
comments gave post the sense that IGAD states -- particularly 
Ethiopia -- might act militarily in Somalia even in the 
absence of UNSC approval if the TFG appears to be in 
jeopardy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Charge and Pol/Econ Counselor attended the Joint IGAD 
(Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) Partners Forum 
June 15 in Addis Ababa, which was hosted by the Italian 
Embassy.  In attendance were ambassadors or representatives 
from most IGAD  states, including Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, 
Kenya and Djibouti, as well from donor/partner countries 
including major European nations and Japan.  While other 
issues were dealt with, developments in Somalia dominated the 
agenda. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
IGAD SECRETARIAT: TFG BABY BELONGS TO ALL OF US 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) IGAD Executive Secretary Attalla Beshir told the 
group that neither the international community nor Somalia's 
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) have moved quickly 
enough to bolster the latter's effectiveness since it emerged 
from the peace process in 2004.  This lack of progress left a 
vacuum that has now understandably been filled by the Islamic 
Courts Union (ICU).  This development had totally changed the 
scenario in Somalia.  Beshir noted that both Somali warlords 
and the ICU had opposed the TFG.  The ExecSec also declared 
that "no one is happy to have fundamentalists in this part of 
the world," and that "the TFG is a baby that belongs to all 
of us." 
 
¶4. (SBU) He expressed openness to any initiative, but called 
for close coordination of any initiative through IGAD and the 
African Union (AU).  He strongly urged that IGAD chair Kenya 
be added to the Contact Group being formed at a meeting in 
New York June 15.  Beshir noted that at their recent meeting 
in Nairobi, IGAD foreign ministers were eager to move forward 
with a peace support mission to strengthen the TFG.  IGAD had 
waited for two years for action from the UNSC on the arms 
embargo, but had seen none.  Meanwhile, many countries had 
intervened in Somalia unilaterally with arms.  Beshir argued 
that a unilateral intervention, or one simply "imported from 
New York," was bound to fail.  Only a regionally supported 
and coordinated initiative was desirable. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
TFG AMBASSADOR: DON'T LET ICU TIGHTEN ITS GRIP 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
¶5. (SBU)  TFG Ambassador to Ethiopia Abdil Karim Farah stated 
that while the TFG had been blocked from establishing itself 
in Mogadishu, the ICU had filled the vacuum of government 
authority with social service networks, including madrassa 
schools the distorted the views of a generation of children. 
Three months ago, he said, the warlords had put together an 
"anti-terror alliance" to confront the ICU saying openly that 
they were "working with the Americans."  Farah claimed that 
there had been no "popular uprising" in favor of the ICU, but 
rather Somalis were simply fed up with the reign of the 
warlords. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Now the ICU was advancing toward the central town of 
Belet Dweyne, the Ambassador said.  At the same time, ICU 
forces were reinforcing for a move toward Baidoa.  The TFG, 
for its part, had no combat equipment and only a 
lightly-armed militia of 7,000.  Farah argued that the IGAD 
communique of June 13th had prompted the ICU to accelerate 
its military campaign, trying to capture as much territory as 
possible in advance of any international intervention.  In 
their wake, they had begun closing cinemas and had shot two 
soccer fans for watching the World Cup on television, 
Taliban-style.  The TFG rep urged that the international 
community not allow the ICU to tighten its grip on southern 
Somalia. 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUDAN AND UGANDA EAGER TO DEPLOY 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Ugandan Ambassador said the situation in Somalia 
affected all IGAD members and partners.  "It is in our 
interest to do whatever we can to contain and reverse the 
current trend by supporting the TFG," she stated.  She 
recalled the example of successful international action in 
Burundi, and said that "we must do more than we have done so 
far." 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Sudanese Ambassador echoed the Ugandan's 
comments, arguing that "we must support the TFG both 
militarily and politically.  How can you tie someone's hands, 
throw him into a river and expect him to swim."  The Sudanese 
rep stated that if the international community wanted Sudan 
and Uganda to go in to Somalia, the UNSC must lift the arms 
embargo.  Heavy arms would be needed to confront the current 
situation.  "If we just sit here and keep talking, (the ICU) 
will advance all the way to Djibouti," he concluded. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ETHIOPIA EVEN MORE WILLING, EMBARGO OR NOT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) Ethiopia's representative to the AU, Amb. Sahilework 
Zewde told the group that the ICU was not monolithic and some 
elements might be willing to engage the TFG.  She also 
claimed that ultimately clan loyalty would trump allegiance 
to the extremists.  Nonetheless, it was dangerous to allow 
the collapse of the TFG.  "IGAD members must protect and 
support a legitimate government," Sahilework argued, "and 
this commitment should not be contingent on an arms embargo 
or any other consideration."  It was important to act as 
quickly as possible; "we have no time." 
 
¶10. (SBU) TFG Ambassador Farah intervened again to underscore 
the Transitional Federal Parliament's decision the day prior 
to authorize international intervention to support the TFG, 
including from front-line states like Ethiopia, Kenya and 
Djibouti.  He recalled that warlords "had turned the people 
against Ethiopia," but the situation had now changed.  The 
Uganda rep chimed in to say that a mission in Somalia would 
be big and dangerous and Uganda would welcome more help with 
the job.  She also argued for adequate financial support and 
force size to succeed in a difficult environment. 
 
-------------------------- 
EUROPEANS AND USG CAUTIOUS 
-------------------------- 
¶11. (SBU) Several European ambassadors interjected notes of 
caution to the discussion.  The Greek ambassador agreed on 
the need for urgent action, but asked whether there was not 
time solid preparations and a firm institutional underpinning 
for intervention.  He asked how the UN arms embargo would 
impact any intervention, and suggested consultations at the 
upcoming Banjul Summit of AU heads of state in early July. 
He also wondered whether a new AU resolution would be needed 
from the Peace and Security Council (PSC) to authorize 
military action.  (NOTE: An AU PSC meeting began immediately 
after the IGAD meeting.  END NOTE).  British Ambassador Bob 
Dewar, for his part, agreed on the need for extension 
consultations between the Contact Group and the AU/IGAD. 
Dewar noted that the UN had recently agreed to respond the AU 
PSC's request to reconsider the arms embargo.  The British 
rep also questioned whether there was a viable cease-fire for 
a peace support operation to implement.  The Swedish 
Ambassador suggested a high-level meeting of the Combined 
Monitoring Commission (CMC) to express support for the TFG. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
COMMENT: STRONG SENTIMENT FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶12. (SBU) The above comments gave post the sense that IGAD 
states -- particularly Ethiopia -- might act militarily in 
Somalia in advance of any UNSC decision on the embargo or 
intervention if the TFG appears to be in jeopardy. 
HUDDLESTON