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INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 5985
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RHMFISS/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 002664 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2031 
TAGS: PREL APEC ARF MARR CH KS JA
SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TRILATERAL, SESSION 
2: THE CONTINUING EMERGENCE OF CHINA 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 2654 
     ¶B. TOKYO 2663 
 
TOKYO 00002664  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan.  Reasons:1.4(b/d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  In Session 2 of the U.S.-Japan-ROK 
trilateral policy planning talks on May 12, S/P Director 
Stephen D. Krasner, Japanese Deputy Vice-Minister for Foreign 
Policy Masaharu Kohno and Korean Deputy Minister for Policy 
Planning and International Organizations Park In-Kook 
outlined their respective countries' policies toward China's 
continuing emergence. 
 
--  All three delegations saw opportunities and challenges 
ahead; 
 
--  Kohno expressed concern over China's domestic instability 
and rapid military build up, particularly its development of 
naval forces; 
 
--  Park wondered whether China would choose a democratic or 
authoritarian model after it reached an appropriate level of 
economic development; 
 
--  Krasner emphasized the importance of the PRC becoming a 
responsible stakeholder in the international system and 
China's domestic transition to a society based on the rule of 
law; 
 
--  Krasner expressed U.S. concern over the trajectory of 
regional architecture; 
 
--  Kohno asserted that Japan had no intention of excluding 
the United States from Asian organizations and said Japan 
would be happy if the U.S. participated in existing pan-Asian 
groups; 
 
--  Park said Asia needed to find the right balance between 
its traditional reliance on the United States and the need to 
promote Asian regional integration; 
 
--  The U.S. and Japanese delegations noted developments in 
the U.S.-Japan alliance, discussed Chinese views of the 
alliance, and encouraged the ROK to recognize the benefits of 
enhanced U.S.-Japan defense relations. 
 
End Summary. 
 
Japan's Views on China 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Japan's Deputy Vice Minister Masaharu Kohno began 
the discussion on China by highlighting the PRC's focus on 
economic growth and regional stability.  While successful in 
achieving rapid economic growth, Chinese authorities have 
been less successful in dealing with the increasing number of 
violent domestic protests, corruption, the wealth gap, 
environmental problems, energy problems and higher 
educational costs.  Japan is concerned that growing domestic 
dissatisfaction may negatively impact Japanese economic 
interests in China, including the more than 100,000 Japanese 
living in the PRC.  Japanese concerns about the lack of 
transparency in China's rapid military buildup is focused on 
increased blue-water naval capabilities and potential threats 
to Japanese sea-lanes.  Japan is also concerned about China's 
growing political and economic influence in the Asian region. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Underscoring that China and Japan hold similar views 
of their bilateral relationship, Kohno noted that both 
countries want to improve the relationship, see no 
possibility for compromise on history issues, and seek to 
increase people-to-people exchanges and economic relations. 
Japan is working to expand people-to-people exchanges, 
particularly among Chinese youth, to increase China's 
understanding of and familiarity with Japan.  Kohno observed 
that Japan supported PRC participation in Asian regional 
groupings as a means of influencing China and thus promoting 
the Japanese goal of a stable and democratic China. 
 
Korean Views on China 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  Korean Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and 
 
TOKYO 00002664  002.3 OF 004 
 
 
International Organizations Park In-Kook noted the growth in 
Korea-China economic relations since the establishment of 
diplomatic relations in 1992.  China has become Korea's top 
trading partner and number one destination of Korean foreign 
investment.  Over 3.5 million Koreans visited the PRC in 
2005, and more than 100,000 Korean students are studying in 
China.  Beijing has played a useful role in multilateral 
organizations.  China is still in a "learning phase" with 
respect to its WTO obligations, but Beijing has been 
particularly helpful in hosting the Six-Party Talks and its 
participation in APEC, EAS, and ASEAN Plus 3 has been 
constructive.  Despite Beijing's claims to the contrary, 
Seoul believes the PRC does have substantial influence on 
North Korea's foreign policy.  Fully one-third of China's 
total foreign aid budget goes to North Korea, and Kim Jong-Il 
has made four visits to China since 2000, highlighting his 
interest in economic reform and China's own experiences. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Looking over the next 30 to 40 years, Park cited the 
need to consider the level of economic development China 
would attain before its economic growth reached a plateau. 
What kind of society would China then become, he asked. 
Would it follow the Japan-ROK model of transition to 
democracy or would it seek to emulate Singapore's combination 
of a market economy but authoritarian political system?  Even 
if China adopted a democratic model, how would the Chinese 
tendency toward a China-centric worldview affect its foreign 
policy? 
 
U.S. Views on China 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  S/P Director Krasner pointed out that as China 
developed it would need to transition to a society based on 
the rule of law.  The United States has pressed China to 
become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international 
system, noting that as China benefits from international 
regimes, it is important for the PRC to honor regime rules. 
Failing to do so will damage the system and, because China 
benefits from the system, thereby also hurt China's own 
interests.  China's efforts to obtain energy security by 
investing in badly governed, unstable countries is one 
example of how China's behavior could ultimately harm Chinese 
interests -- as the PRC is ultimately a beneficiary of a 
stable global energy market.  The United States does not seek 
to "contain" China or balance against it in the traditional 
fashion of 19th century great power politics.  Rather, the 
United States is especially concerned about difficulties that 
might arise from a failed or a badly governed China.  China 
should share this interest.  Moreover, domestic instability 
in China itself may increase nationalist sentiment, leading 
to trouble over China's relations with Taiwan.  The United 
States is pressing both China and Taiwan to maintain the 
status quo, S/P Director Krasner said. 
 
China in the International System 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Nobukatsu Kanehara of Japan's Embassy in Washington 
agreed that China, along with all Asian countries, should be 
a responsible stakeholder in the international system and 
suggested that China needed help in understanding what that 
meant for Chinese foreign policy.  He expressed concern that 
China's "rising power mentality" and its traditional tendency 
over thousands of years to view relationships hierarchically, 
would keep the PRC from adopting a global perspective.  S/P 
Director Krasner observed that China was experiencing a 
period of competing values and opined that its choices would 
not be constrained by history.  Rather the PRC would adopt 
policies that benefited Chinese interests.  Chinese leaders 
would eventually determine that a society based on the rule 
of law is in China's interests, he averred.  S/P Member Evan 
Feigenbaum warned against generalizing from Chinese history 
or concluding that its interests were fixed.  Thirty years 
ago, China promoted revolution, proletarian solidarity and 
guerrilla struggle.  No longer.  Likewise, a country that 
once did almost no trade does not have the same interests as 
when it is the world's third or fourth largest trading power. 
 The United States, Japan and Korea needed to work together 
to encourage China to exercise its growing capacity to 
support the international system. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Kohno acknowledged that Beijing would have 
 
TOKYO 00002664  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
stakeholder interests as long as it continued its policy of 
increasing incomes through rapid economic growth, but 
wondered how China's behavior might change once it reached an 
acceptable level of economic development and adopted a new 
set of policies.  Noting that maintaining social stability in 
order to sustain economic growth provided the current 
rationale for retaining the communist party, Kohno asked 
rhetorically how long the current situation would continue. 
Wondering whether the Singapore model would be adaptable to 
such a large country, Kohno advised paying close attention to 
CCP leadership interests over the mid-term. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Park observed that Chinese leaders were greatly 
self-confident because of their achievements over the past 
thirty years.  However, they also suffered from a persecution 
complex that led to such PRC efforts as attempts to secure 
China's own access to energy and was responsible for China's 
sensitivity over sovereignty rights, particularly with 
respect to Taiwan.  Park urged continued dialogue with the 
PRC. 
 
China, the United States and Asian Architecture 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶10.  (C)  Turning to recent developments in Asian regional 
groupings, Krasner said the United States is concerned that 
Asian initiatives to accommodate China may inadvertently 
stumble into a regional architectural structure that excludes 
the United States.  Deputy Minister Park observed that the 
recent global trend toward regional integration meant that 
Asian countries needed their own regional groupings.  The 
challenge, he suggested, is to harmonize Asia's need for 
integration with the region's traditional reliance on the 
strong role played by the United States. 
 
¶11.  (C)  DVM Kohno noted that participation in regional 
organizations provided China the opportunity of demonstrating 
its acceptance of a stakeholder role.  He stressed that Japan 
had no intention of excluding the United States from Asian 
organizations and noted Japan's interest in expanding 
membership in Asian groupings to include India, Australia, 
Mongolia and other countries.  Kohno emphasized the 
importance of cooperation and coordination among regional 
organizations. 
 
¶12.  (C)  Sketching out a conceptual framework, S/P Director 
Krasner observed that Asian regional and trans-Pacific 
groupings tended to be organized on the basis of either 1) 
functional cooperation; 2) shared values; or 3) having many 
meetings on the assumption that if leaders meet often enough 
common interest would emerge.  Although U.S. alliances were 
based on functions and values, organizations among Asian 
countries often tended to promote interaction among leaders 
for its own sake.  The U.S. concern is that a grouping based 
merely on leadership interaction might undermine the 
functional and value-oriented relationships the United States 
has with Asian countries.  DVM Kohno said the three countries 
needed to consider how to reinforce the existing regional and 
trans-regional organizations, as APEC, ARF, ASEM, etc. could 
all be criticized for making little tangible progress after 
many years. 
 
China and the U.S.-Japan Alliance 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (C)  Deputy Minister Park asked about China's response 
to the recent reinforcement of the U.S.-Japan alliance and 
inquired as to the alliance's scope.  Kanehara noted that 
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Japan began to 
consider how it might participate in international 
peacekeeping operations.  In line with that thinking, the 
U.S.-Japan alliance had become global in scope.  Feigenbaum 
said the United States was delighted by recent developments 
in the alliance and supported an expanded role for Japan in 
the international system.  Feigenbaum acknowledged that this 
had led some in China to shift their view of the alliance, 
believing that the United States no longer "corked the 
bottle" of Japanese militarism, but encouraged a more robust 
security role for Japan.  However, he noted, the United 
States thought that an enhanced Japanese role was good for 
Asia and, for that matter, for China since the PRC benefited 
not only from the peace and stability engendered by the 
alliance in Asia, but across the globe as well. 
 
TOKYO 00002664  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶14. (U)  Participants: 
 
United States 
------------- 
 
Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff 
Joe Donovan, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy Tokyo 
James Zumwalt, Economic Minister-Counselor, Embassy Tokyo 
Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member 
David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo 
Steve Hill, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker) 
 
Japan 
----- 
 
Masaharu Kohno, MOFA Deputy Vice-Minister for Foreign Policy 
Nobukatsu Kanehara, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Washington) 
Koji Tomita, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Seoul) 
Hiroshi Kawamura, MOFA Director, Policy Planning Division 
Shinya Fujita, MOFA Deputy Director, Policy Planning Division 
 
South Korea 
----------- 
 
Park In-Kook, MOFAT Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and 
International Organizations 
Yeon Sang-Mo, Minister-Counselor, Embassy of Korea (Tokyo) 
Kim Ki-Woong, MOFAT Director, Inter-Korean Policy Division 
Park Ki-Jun, MOFAT Deputy Director, Northeast Asia Division 
Park Young-Kyu, MOFAT Deputy Director, Policy Planning and 
Coordination Division 
Oh Song, MOFAT Director, Policy Planning and Coordination 
Division 
Hahn Choong-Hee, MOFAT Director, North America Division 
 
¶15.  (U)  S/P Director Krasner cleared this message. 
DONOVAN