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FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
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RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0836
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1011
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000214 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PREL MARR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: QARASE CONFIRMED AS FIJI'S PM; MILITARY COMMANDER 
UNHAPPY 
 
REF: SUVA 209 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C)  By scraping through to a win in a disputed seat, 
Prime Minister Qarase's SDL party secured a tiny 
parliamentary majority in Fiji's national election.  Two 
SDL-oriented independents add cushion.  The losing FLP may 
still sue, but that is an issue only for the longer term. 
Qarase has announced an offer of major cabinet ministries to 
the FLP, a surprise which FLP members are now digesting. 
Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama 
returned to attacking Qarase in the media today and alleged 
New Zealand will provide a new RFMF commander soon.  The GNZ 
has denied it.  Reportedly, though, Qarase's office is 
seeking a new ethnic-Fijian commander.  After waffling, 
Bainimarama now intends to follow through on a visit to 
Hawaii next week, which would appear to indicate he has no 
immediate plans to take drastic action.  End Summary. 
 
SDL wins; Qarase sworn in as PM 
------------------------------- 
¶2. (U)  Laisenia Qarase and his SDL party have won Fiji's 
general election.  The second recount in a suburban Suva seat 
saw SDL win the seat by 9 votes out of 15,701.  That, plus 
written commitments from both "independent" seat winners, 
provides Qarase 38 seats in Parliament, compared to the 
FLP-UPP coalition's 33 seats.  On the afternoon of May 19, 
President Iloilo swore in Qarase for another term as Prime 
Minister. 
 
Cabinet proposal, with "multi-party" offer 
------------------------------------------ 
¶3. (SBU)  Qarase wasted no time in announcing his cabinet 
plans, which, under the Constitution, must include a 
proportional offer of positions to the FLP.  Qarase said that 
given the FLP won 44% of the seats in Parliament, he has 
given his SDL parliamentarians 10 cabinet seats and has 
offered the FLP 7: Agriculture, Commerce and Industry, Energy 
and Minerals, Environment, Health, Labor, and Local 
Government.  Qarase intends also to name the two independents 
and a few Senators to cabinet positions, slots which he 
believes do not have to figure into the SDL/FLP percentages. 
He envisions a full cabinet of 20 or 21.  He asked the FLP to 
respond by next Monday with a list of 12 names, from which 
the PM can choose. 
 
¶4. (C)  Comment: Qarase's math is slightly off (the FLP won 
43.7% of the seats and the offer is 41.2% of the SDL/FLP 
portion of cabinet), but the offered positions are important 
posts, particularly for a domestically-oriented labor party. 
The offer appears intended to test the FLP's ability to 
maintain a chip on its shoulder, and could be read as an 
olive leaf, though perhaps one which Qarase expects to be 
declined.  FLP leaders have never been known for their 
conciliatory natures.  Still, in a press conference at end of 
day, FLP leader Chaudhry admitted the offer is "substantial" 
and one which his caucus will consider.  We hear the FLP may 
decide to accept the cabinet positions, but that Chaudhry may 
opt to stay away and become Opposition Leader again.  End 
comment.) 
 
FLP still might sue 
------------------- 
¶4. (U)  In his press event, Chaudhry complained that the 
election was "not free and fair," for the various reasons we 
have reported on previously (refs), and he confirmed the FLP 
is considering legal action to challenge results.  A prime 
target of any suit would be the constituency where the FLP 
and minor parties allege 15 ballot boxes suddenly appeared 
after counting procedures had begun.  The FLP lost that seat 
on preferences.  If the result were eventually to be turned 
around, the SDL would be left with only a minority 35 seats 
on its own, which would open the possibility of a "no 
confidence" vote and would put the two independents in 
position to dictate who governs.  Still, for now and at least 
the immediate future, the Qarase government has the reins of 
power in Fiji. 
 
Military Commander attacks Qarase yet again 
------------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C)  Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama told the media today, via radio interviews and a 
press conference, that Qarase and some other winning SDL 
candidates have "attacked the military" in recent days, even 
though "Fiji faces more important issues than fighting the 
 
SUVA 00000214  002 OF 002 
 
 
military."  He argued a focus on the military "does not augur 
well" for Fiji, which needs to concentrate on "good 
government."  He added that he has heard "through the 
grapevine that New Zealand is to send a commander of the RFMF 
to replace me in the next couple of months."  He said 
categorically: "That is not going to happen;" if there is to 
be a change it would "have to be a local."  (Note: The GNZ 
has put out a press statement denying there has been any such 
Fiji request.) 
 
A new RFMF leadership option? 
----------------------------- 
¶6. (C)  Prior to the recount result which assured the SDL its 
slim majority, Bainimarama publicly urged the two independent 
victors in the election to side with the FLP.  Now that 
Qarase is re-installed as PM, Bainimarama must consider his 
options.  Per septel from Suva DAO, retired RFMF LtCol. 
Serevakula has urged Bainimarama to try to rebuild bridges to 
the Qarase government.  That would take a great deal of work 
and self-discipline on Bainimarama's behalf.  It would also 
require receptivity from Qarase, who has no confidence in the 
Commander.  Qarase responded to Bainimarama's public attack 
today by noting that the new cabinet must "sort out" the 
situation shortly.  Per septel, we have heard that Qarase's 
office has quietly asked Serevakula to return from his 
lucrative UN assignment in Afghanistan to take the Commander 
job.  That choice might be palatable to many in the RFMF 
officer corps, though it would not please Bainimarama.  It is 
not yet clear how Serevakula will respond. 
 
Bainimarama Visit to Hawaii an opportunity 
------------------------------------------ 
¶7. (C)  A few days ago, Bainimarama shelved plans to visit 
the Solomon Islands this week.  This morning, his staff 
informed the Embassy that he was also canceling a trip to 
Hawaii for next week to observe Exercise Tafakula; however, 
Bainimarama changed his mind a few hours later and now does 
plan to do the Hawaii trip.  That would suggest he does not 
intend any immediate drastic action at home. 
DINGER