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RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000209 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI ELECTION TO QARASE'S SDL...PROBABLY 
 
REF: SUVA 206 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C)  In Fiji's general election, Prime Minister Qarase's 
SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP garnered nearly all 
seats, with the SDL, supported by two independent candidates, 
likely to form government with a tiny majority.  Final, 
marginal-seat results are still trickling in.  The FLP hasn't 
given up.  It is lobbying the two independents.  It is also 
challenging results in a suburban Suva seat where it alleges 
15 ballot boxes mysteriously appeared and in another suburban 
seat where SDL is alleged to have influenced the count. 
Voting was mostly party/race-based.  Apart from the two 
significant disputes, which remain unresolved at close of 
day, the process generally appeared to be free and fair, 
though it was very complex and lengthy.  Qarase plans to 
offer cabinet seats to the FLP, as required by the 
Constitution, though some worry the offer won't be genuine. 
Another worry is how Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) 
Commander Bainimarama will react.  Qarase's apparent victory 
may well restart the clock on civil-military tensions in 
Fiji.  End Summary. 
 
SDL, with independents, edges ahead 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (U)  As predicted (refs), Fiji's general election has 
turned out to be very close, with PM Qarase's SDL and 
Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP gaining nearly all the 
seats.  The only exceptions are two UPP "generals" who are 
aligned with the FLP, and two independents.  As of COB, 
several open seats are still cycling through repeated 
preference allocations; however, based on preference 
expectations, it appears the SDL will be able to form 
government.  Even FLP sources tell us they are likely to be 
behind, 35-36 or 34-37.  A couple of factors remain at play, 
though, and we hear both Qarase and Chaudhry have sent 
messages to President Iloilo requesting to form a government. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU)  SDL's margin is based on statements by the two 
independent victors that they intend to align with SDL. 
Chaudhry has said he is trying to woo the two, but that 
appears difficult.  One, Rob Irwin, is an ethnic-English 
businessman who likes Qarase's pro-business stance; the other 
is George Konrote, a former RFMF senior officer who until 
recently was Fiji's High Commissioner to Australia. 
Reportedly Konrote has at least agreed to talk with Chaudhry. 
 Many are speculating Qarase will offer Konrote the Home 
Affairs Ministry with responsibility for the RFMF. 
 
Ballot-box mysteries: a court case? 
----------------------------------- 
¶4. (C)  The FLP is likely to initiate a court challenge 
concerning at least one Suva suburban seat where allegedly 15 
ballot boxes mysteriously appeared after the pre-count 
verification process had commenced.  Officials swear the 
total was always 98, not 83, and that any announcement to the 
contrary was simply a mistake.  They say a complete paper 
trail backs their case.  However, the FLP and three minor 
parties are very skeptical, in part because the FLP candidate 
for that seat had the same sort of unpleasant surprise happen 
to her in 2001.  The four have already filed an electoral 
protest.  Elections supervisors ordered a second full recount 
in another Suva suburban seat late Wednesday after the FLP 
alleged an SDL candidate who initially lost by 4 votes 
entered the counting room and convinced officials to allow in 
additional ballots from outside to give her a 17 vote 
victory.  If the final outcome is 34 or 35 for SDL plus its 2 
independents, the two disputed seats would be the margin of 
victory. 
 
Some valid complaints; mostly "free and fair" but... 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶5. (U)  We heard a number of complaints, particularly from 
the ethnic-Indian parties, of problems with the polls.  The 
most frequent issue was that voters, usually ethnic-Indian 
and often with registration slips in hand, were missing from 
the polling lists or were placed in the wrong constituencies. 
 In most seats, with big victory margins, that did not affect 
the outcome.  In a few, where the margin after preferences 
has been as few as 200 votes, disenfranchisement could have 
been a factor.  Obviously, the outcome of the suburban Suva 
open seat controversies could decide the election.  Another 
concern is that the number of invalid votes was high again 
this year, perhaps 10% or more.  The main cause is a very 
complicated preferential ballot.  While our impression is 
 
SUVA 00000209  002 OF 002 
 
 
that, in general, officials have attempted to provide a free 
and fair election, we reserve final judgment until the Suva 
suburban issues are resolved. 
 
People voted party; race is a factor 
------------------------------------ 
¶6. (U)  Voting was heavily determined by party affiliation, 
and the SDL and FLP are racially based.  SDL rolled with big 
majorities through all 23 Fijian-communal seats, as did FLP 
through all 19 Indian-communal seats.  In open seats where 
one race is dominant, the seats went as race determined.  As 
expected, a group of less than a dozen, racially marginal 
open seats were key.  In a few, FLP scored upsets; in one SDL 
eked out a 200 vote victory on fifth preference count.  Many 
went well into the preference lists.  In those, primarily 
urban-based seats, race played a major role but not an 
absolutely decisive one.  The total inability of the new 
multi-racial National Alliance Party and the historically 
prominent, Indian-based NFP to win anything may signal the 
end of those movements. 
 
A multi-party cabinet? 
---------------------- 
¶7. (C)  PM Qarase has declared victory and has said he will 
follow the Constitution by offering seats to the FLP for a 
multi-party cabinet.  Qarase has made clear, however, that he 
does not like the idea and would prefer Chaudhry and his FLP 
fellows to be in opposition.  Qarase says he wants a 
multi-ethnic cabinet, just not a multi-party one. 
Unfortunately, only two of the SDL's ethnic-Indian candidates 
won open seats, so a meaningfully multi-ethnic team, absent 
the FLP, seems a pipe dream.  Last time around, under court 
order, Qarase ended up offering a bunch of powerless cabinet 
positions to FLP, which Chaudhry rejected out of hand, 
preferring opposition status.  Prominent Indo-Fijian academic 
Brij Lal came to the Ambassador today at request of several 
prominent Indian businessmen to ask for foreign-diplomatic 
help to convince Qarase to make a sellable offer to Chaudhry 
on cabinet seats.  The businessmen fear continued 
confrontational politics otherwise.  We noted that Qarase has 
been quite definitive in his views.  Lal carried a second 
request: that diplomats lobby Qarase and RFMF Commander 
Bainimarama to reduce civil-military tension.  We described 
how we have been doing that for months and would continue to 
do so as appropriate. 
 
The military wild card 
---------------------- 
¶8. (C)  The RFMF's response to the election outcome certainly 
bears watching.  Commodore Bainimarama clearly expected the 
SDL to lose.  However, Qarase has said publicly that the 
RFMF's "truth and justice" campaign against the SDL actually 
helped stimulate ethnic-Fijian turnout for the SDL.  In 
victory statements, Qarase has reiterated that he intends to 
continue pursuing ethnic-based legislation, like the 
reconciliation bill and the fishing-rights bill, which 
Bainimarama strongly opposes.  Also, Qarase has publicly 
announced he intends to seek a Supreme Court judgment on the 
military's proper role under Fiji's current Constitution, as 
a step toward reining in Bainimarama. 
 
¶9. (C)  All this puts a spotlight on the Commander.  Will he 
back off from past threats to remove a reelected Qarase 
government if it attempts to pursue past policies?  Or, might 
he attempt to buttress FLP allegations of election flaws, 
like the mystery 15-box discrepancy?  Bainimarama has 
canceled plans to visit the Solomon Islands this week.  It 
will be interesting to see if he will continue with plans to 
visit Hawaii next week to observe Fiji forces in Exercise 
Tafakula.  We understand retired LtCol. Bill Serevakula, a 
very respected officer now with the UN, who is back in Fiji 
temporarily, talked with Bainimarama today about "exit 
strategies" to ease civil-military tensions.  We hope he was 
successful, and we will report any details ASAP.  For now, 
Suva is calm. 
DINGER