VZCZCXRO3507
RR RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0185/01 1240110
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 040110Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3058
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1201
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0820
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0995
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PHUM MCAP FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI ELECTION WEEK: CALM, THEN UNCERTAINTY? 
 
REF: A. SUVA 173 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 167 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C)  Voting in Fiji's general election begins Saturday and 
will run for a week.  Most people expect Prime Minister 
Qarase's SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP to take the 
bulk of the seats, though minor parties and independents 
could hold the balance in a close election.  With the 
ethnic-Fijian vote key and with some indications of shaky SDL 
support, Qarase in recent days has moved to solidify his 
base, arguing that only a Fijian-led party can assure a 
stable future.  Chaudhry, who senses his ethnic-Indian base 
is secure, has questioned how much ethnic Fijians actually 
gained under the present government.  The Fiji Police expect 
a "calm" election week.  The Elections Office has told the 
Fiji military (RFMF) to stay away from the polls, except to 
vote.  It appears Commander Bainimarama will not have his 
forces visibly present, unless there is an unexpected 
emergency.  In public debates this week, PM Qarase noted his 
intention to find a "permanent" solution regarding the RFMF's 
political activism, if the SDL wins the election.  An aspect 
of that solution could relate to a defense "white paper" 
which has yet to be approved but which reportedly argues for 
reduced RFMF infantry strength.  End Summary. 
 
The stage is set 
---------------- 
¶2. (SBU)  Fiji's general election takes place May 6-13.  Well 
over 300 candidates are vying for the 71 seats in 
Parliament's lower house.  Per reftels, most everyone expects 
PM Qarase's ruling SDL and Opposition Leader Chaudhry's FLP 
to garner the most seats.  Independents and candidates from 
four other nation-wide parties and several regional parties 
will play meaningful roles in some seats, per ref B.  Such 
independents and minor parties could also determine who forms 
the next government, if neither the SDL nor the FLP gains a 
majority on its own.  In the end, the party or coalition 
which has 36 or more seats will form the government.  The 
governing party or coalition will then propose the new Prime 
Minister from within its ranks. 
 
Cabinet-sharing question 
------------------------ 
¶3. (U)  Under Fiji's 1997 Constitution, the new PM must offer 
ministerial portfolios to all other parties that win 10% (8 
or more) parliamentary seats.  In 2001 Qarase attempted to 
evade that requirement, believing that to bring arch-rival 
Chaudhry and company into Cabinet would be impossibly 
disruptive; but Fiji's Supreme Court insisted.  In the end, 
Chaudhry's FLP chose to be in opposition rather than take the 
minor portfolios Qarase ultimately offered.  In a radio 
talk-back appearance and a formal TV debate on May 2, Qarase 
and Chaudhry both indicated that this time around they could 
work together, since the Constitution does indeed require 
that approach.  Qarase added, though, that he wants a 
constitutional amendment to remove the "unworkable" Cabinet 
provision. 
 
Qarase's "race card" 
-------------------- 
¶4. (SBU)  With ethnic Fijians constituting a solid 55% or 
more majority in the population, they hold the electoral wild 
cards.  Thus, Qarase, who per ref B senses that "preference" 
allocations have made the SDL vulnerable in key "open" seats, 
has played hard on the theme that, in Fiji's still-young 
democracy, only an ethnic-Fijian-led party (the SDL) can 
ensure future stability.  He has reminded repeatedly that 
both times in the past when the FLP won elections (1987 and 
2000), coups followed.  Another SDL candidate, Tupeni Baba, 
who in 1999 was Chaudhry's deputy in the FLP, has accented 
concerns about instability, claiming the military cannot 
protect Fiji from a coup.  Chaudhry has decried such playing 
of the "race card."  He also is arguing that the Qarase 
government has failed ordinary Fijians, paying out huge sums 
to ethnic-Fijian elites and cronies for development schemes 
that have not improved the lives of the common villager. 
When asked in the TV debate, Chaudhry confirmed that, if the 
FLP wins, he would accept its nomination for PM. 
 
Indicators of SDL concern 
------------------------- 
¶5. (C)  We have observed that, in Suva at least, Qarase 
rallies seem heavy with older Fijians, and Chaudhry rallies 
have attracted a surprising number of younger Fijians.  How 
those observations translate into "open" seat votes remains 
 
SUVA 00000185  002 OF 002 
 
 
to be seen.  Qarase told us after the TV debate that he 
thinks the SDL will still win enough seats on the first 
ballot count (see ref B for explanation), but the margin may 
be thin.  Interestingly, we hear that Qarase recently 
instructed his office staff to begin shredding "confidential" 
Cabinet documents.  We are told the guidance a few weeks ago 
had been to maintain the documents. 
 
Observers at the ready; Police expect "calm" 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶6. (U)  Electoral observers have arrived in force from 
abroad, including 40 from the EU, 7 from Australia and 7 from 
New Zealand as part of a Pacific Islands Forum group, and 6 
from the Commonwealth.  With our own resources, we intend to 
visit polling booths across Fiji's two big islands and on at 
least one smaller one.  The Fiji Police have dedicated most 
of their forces to maintain order at some 1000 polling 
stations over the seven days of voting.  Police Commissioner 
Hughes has assured the public that the atmosphere will be 
calm. 
 
Military on alert, but asked to stay away 
----------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C)  Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama and his spokesmen have indicated publicly in 
recent days that all troops are ready if needed to maintain 
order.  They have also reiterated past public statements 
that, if Chaudhry's FLP should win the election, the RFMF 
will ensure no (nationalist-Fijian) coup occurs.  As with the 
Police, all leaves have been canceled.  The RFMF has called 
reservists into barracks for the election period and, in 
recent days, has had troops training against election-trouble 
scenarios.  At least one RFMF soldier died and several others 
collapsed, apparently due to heatstroke, while training on 
May 2.  The head of Fiji's Elections Office emphasized this 
week that he makes the call regarding election security 
measures; he has assigned that task to the Police; and the 
RFMF is to have no role at the polls, except to vote, since 
there is no "emergency."  We hear that the RFMF plans to 
scatter plain-clothes soldiers throughout Fiji to keep an eye 
on things. 
 
Afterward: Qarase intends permanent RFMF solution 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶8. (SBU)  In the TV debate, PM Qarase restated his intention 
to "permanently" resolve ongoing friction with the RFMF if 
the SDL wins the election.  Qarase hinted his solution would 
involve dialogue, but he has also mentioned taking the issue 
of the RFMF's political/security role, or lack of it, to the 
Supreme Court for a judgment.  Some in the media are 
speculating that a new Qarase government might endorse budget 
cuts and a "white paper" on defense reform that was produced 
a couple of years ago without RFMF participation and that 
advocated a reduction in RFMF infantry strength. 
 
...and then the politicking really begins 
----------------------------------------- 
¶9. (C)  The stage is set for an exercise of democracy, Fiji 
style.  People seem to expect a peaceful week of voting, 
followed by intense attention to the counting, which could 
take several days, depending on how many sets of preferences 
must be calculated to reach a "50 plus 1" winner for each 
seat.  Then Fiji's politics will really get interesting as a 
government forms, opposition groups coalesce, and the 
military ponders its options. 
DINGER