VZCZCXRO5283
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0420/01 1251156
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051156Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4611
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 4052
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2016 
TAGS: PGOV MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SET FOR JULY 5, 
CAMPAIGN PLATFORMS TAKE SHAPE 
 
REF: SKOPJE 294 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. With parliamentary elections scheduled for 
July 5, governing and opposition parties are building their 
campaign platforms around common themes of economic 
development, NATO and EU integration, and education.  Despite 
their stated intent to run issues-based campaigns, however, 
the parties continue the political trench warfare they began 
earlier this year (reftel).  Current polls show opposition 
VMRO-DPMNE with a comfortable lead over governing SDSM, and 
eAlbanian junior coalition partner DUI maintaining its lead 
over rival DPA.  If the mudslinging, catcalling, and 
generally negative tone of the current campaign continues, 
voter turnout could be lower than normal, undecided voters 
would probably punish the governing coalition, and the 
current opposition could end up in a winning coalition by 
default.  End Summary. 
 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS JULY 5 
 
¶2. (SBU) Macedonia's Speaker of Parliament announced April 20 
that parliamentary elections will be held on July 5.  The 
announcement, confirming the worst-kept secret in Skopje in 
recent weeks, followed the parliament's confirmation of the 
composition of the State Electoral Commission, which will 
administer the election.  Although the official campaign 
season begins 20 days before election day, all of the parties 
have been informally campaigning for the past several months 
(reftel). 
 
GOVERNING PARTIES FOCUS ON ECONOMY, EDUCATION, EURO-ATLANTIC 
INTEGRATION 
 
¶3. (SBU) SDSM (governing coalition senior partner) SecGen 
Kjurkciev told us April 26 that the party's campaign platform 
would consist mainly of the "three E's": economic 
development, education, and EU integration.  Governing 
coalition partner DUI will follow a similar line, focusing on 
economic and social development issues, as well as on NATO 
and EU integration.  (Comment: The SDSM and DUI platforms 
neatly reflect voters' top priorities as expressed in recent 
polls -- economic development and jobs, EU integration, and 
NATO membership. End Comment.)  DUI also will take credit for 
progress achieved in implementing the 2001 Framework 
Agreement (FWA), including increases in the number of 
eAlbanians employed in state institutions under the 
government's equitable representation program. 
 
ETHNIC MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION MIRRORS FOCUS ON ECONOMY, 
EDUCATION, EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION 
 
¶4. (SBU) The main opposition parties are taking a similar 
tack.  VMRO-DPMNE officials tell us that "60 percent" of 
their campaign platform will consist of economic issues, 
including tax reforms, sustainable development, agriculture, 
and investment climate reforms.  Education and health care 
reforms will also figure in the VMRO-DPMNE campaign, as will 
combating corruption.  According to VMRO-DPMNE SecGen 
Jankulovska, the party will pledge to move Macedonia "into 
the first third of the Transparency International corruption 
perception index list" -- it currently is ranked 104 of 159 
countries on the list.  Inter-ethnic issues will not figure 
prominently in DPMNE's campaign. 
 
¶5. (SBU) VMRO-Narodna is pledging to pursue a "positive 
campaign" that focuses on improving the economic environment 
for small businesses.  The party will actively support NATO 
and EU membership, while criticizing the slow pace of 
Macedonia's progress toward NATO and EU membership to date. 
Narodna also will propose a more progressive corporate tax, 
and a decrease in the VAT on food.  On agriculture, the party 
will propose a government purchase of aircraft to help 
farmers export produce to western European markets. 
 
¶6. (C) Like VMRO-DPMNE, Narodna leaders say they will avoid 
directly addressing FWA or inter-ethnic issues.  However, 
Narodna leader Georgievski's recent stump speeches have 
chastised ethnic Macedonians for allowing themselves to 
become "second class" citizens in their own country, a 
 
SKOPJE 00000420  002 OF 002 
 
 
thinly-veiled and ethno-centric reference to the perceived 
political concessions eMacedonians have been forced to make 
to eAlbanians. 
 
ETHNIC RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PLANKS FOR eALBANIAN OPPOSITION DPA 
 
¶7. (SBU) Opposition DPA (eAlbanian opposition) leaders tell 
us they will attack DUI's record on FWA implementation and 
will pledge to secure the use of the Albanian language in 
Macedonian institutions as a second official language.  They 
also propose to accelerate implementation of equitable 
representation, and to dedicate 25 percent of the state 
budget for infrastructure and other projects to benefit the 
eAlbanian population.  DPA leader Arben Xhaferi has pledged 
that the party will not engage in ethnic hate rhetoric.  Like 
the other opposition parties, DPA will also focus on economic 
issues, but with a distinct focus on improving the "economic 
equality" of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia. 
 
POLITICAL TRENCH WARFARE CONTINUES 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite the parties' stated intent to run 
issues-based campaigns and to refrain from ad hominem 
attacks, the political mudslinging and catcalling that began 
earlier this year has continued unabated.  VMRO-DPMNE and 
SDSM have traded salvoes in the local press recently over 
mutual accusations of involvement in the region's lucrative 
cigarette smuggling business. 
 
¶9. (C) DPA has attacked DUI for allegedly selling out 
eAlbanian interests during its stint in the coalition 
government.  DPA also accuses DUI of bringing in Kosovar 
"muscle" to help manipulate the election results in DUI's 
favor, and has pledged to call in its own Kosovar 
"reinforcements" to act as a deterrent against DUI's allies 
from Kosovo, a move the Ambassador has actively discouraged 
while warning DUI against allowing foreign "supporters" from 
interfering in the electoral process. 
 
POLLS SHOW VMRO-DPMNE MAINTAINING LEAD OVER RULING SDSM 
 
¶10. (U) A recent poll conducted by a domestic NGO shows that 
52 percent of citizens are undecided regarding which party 
they will vote for in the elections, while 29 percent say 
they will support VMRO-DPMNE, 21 percent will back SDSM, and 
16 percent will support DUI.  DPA garners 10 percent support, 
SDSM offshoot NSDP gets an impressive 6 percent, and the 
smaller parties, including VMRO-Narodna, get 4 percent or 
less.  The most popular politicians in Macedonia are 
VMRO-DPMNE President Nikola Gruevski (32.2 percent), DUI 
leader Ali Ahmeti (17%), and NSDP President Tito Petkovski 
(15%).  Reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the 
government's inability to boost economic growth sufficiently 
to lower unemployment, only 8 percent of citizens express any 
confidence in PM Buckovski. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶11. (C) Given the SDSM-led government's consistently low 
ratings in the polls, we are hearing from an increasing 
number of SDSM government officials that they do not expect 
the current coalition to last beyond July 5.  Local political 
analysts have commented to us that intensely negative 
political campaigning traditionally has produced lower voter 
turnout, which has tended to favor the opposition.  If the 
negative tone of the current campaign continues, turnout 
could be lower than expected and undecided voters could end 
up backing the opposition, producing a winning coalition for 
the current opposition by default, and validating the 
increasingly negative public view of government officials in 
general.  End Comment. 
MILOVANOVIC