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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY 
DEPT OF TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWARD 
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/SHUPKA 
STATE PASS EXIMBANK 
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE 
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER 
NSC FOR CRONIN 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
AID/W FOR LAC/AA 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: DEPUTY IZAR SPEAKS ABOUT THE ETHICS COUNCIL, THE CORRUPTION 
SCANDAL, ELECTIONS, AND POLITICAL REFORM 
 
REF: (A) SAO PAULO 505; (B) SAO PAULO 498; 
 
     (C) SAO PAULO 465; (D) BRASILIA 682; 
     (E) 02 SAO PAULO 3768 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (U) Federal Deputy Ricardo Izar, Chairman of the Chamber of 
Deputies' Ethics Council, is frustrated that so many corrupt Deputies 
have been exonerated by the full Chamber, but believes nonetheless that 
the political corruption scandal will have a healthy impact on Brazil's 
political culture.  He predicts that the scandal will serve as a 
wake-up call to civil society and stimulate voters to become more 
active in working for honest candidates.  However, he does not expect 
Congress to pass major political reform.  Izar does believe that the 
2006 elections will see significant turnover in the Chamber.  He also 
predicts that the last of the "mensaleiros" - deputies implicated in 
the "mensalao" (monthly bribery payoffs) scandal - Jose Janene, a 
member of the Progressivist Party (PP) from the southern state of 
Parana, will be expelled from Congress and deprived of his political 
rights for eight years.  Izar expects his own Brazilian Labor Party 
(PTB) to survive the elections, but thinks Lula's PT is going to suffer 
considerable losses.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
CHAIRMAN SATISFIED WITH ETHICS COUNCIL'S WORK 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Poloff and Political Assistant met May 8 with Federal Deputy 
Ricardo Izar (Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) from Sao Paulo), Chairman of 
the Chamber of Deputies' Ethics Council, to discuss the political 
situation and the impact of the corruption scandal on national and 
state elections.  Izar was eager to talk about the Ethics Council, 
which is responsible for investigating accusations of wrongdoing 
against Deputies.  He predicted the Council won't hear any more cases 
this year because all the deputies want to go back to their states to 
campaign for re-election. The previous week, national media had 
reported on "Operation Bloodsucker," a major police action targeting 
persons alleged to have misappropriated funds in the acquisition of 
ambulances for municipalities.  Though several former Deputies and 
numerous Congressional staffers were implicated, Izar explained that 
the Ethics Council would not have jurisdiction unless sitting Members 
of Congress were accused of wrongdoing.  (NOTE: Subsequent to this 
conversation, published allegations have implicated several sitting 
Members, but it is not yet clear whether the Ethics Council will get 
involved, or, if it does, when.  END NOTE.) Poloff also inquired about 
an interview published the previous day in which Silvio Pereira, former 
Secretary-General of the ruling Workers Party (Partido dos 
 
SIPDIS 
Trabalhadores - PT) had offered a new version of the mensalao scandal 
(see ref A).  Again, Izar explained, since the Parliamentary 
Investigative Commissions (CPIs) had completed their work and issued 
their reports, it was unlikely that Pereira's allegations would create 
any new work for the Ethics Council. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Summing up the Council's work, Izar predicted that Deputy 
Vadao Gomes (PP-SP) would likely be acquitted of wrongdoing because 
"there's really no hard evidence against him, just a lot of 
allegations."  (NOTE: On May 10, the Ethics Council absolved Gomes. 
End NOTE.)  On the other hand, the very last Deputy to have his case 
come before the Ethics Council, Jose Janene (PP-PR) - whose case has 
 
SAO PAULO 00000543  002 OF 003 
 
 
been postponed several times due to his poor health - will lose his 
mandate.  "Everybody knows he's not honest," says Mr. Izar.  Asked how 
he can be confident that the Plenary will vote to convict Janene or 
anyone else in light of the acquittal of Joao Paulo Cunha (PT-SP - see 
ref D), Izar replied, "The acquittal of Cunha was a political deal 
between various parties that had an interest in seeing him go free 
because heQs useful to them.  Nobody has an interest in seeing Janene 
exonerated."   The Ethics Council will wrap up its work by the end of 
May, Izar opined, to give the deputies enough time to campaign. 
Despite somewhat equivocal results in the eighteen cases of Deputies 
accused of corruption - three expelled, ten acquitted, four resigned 
rather than face the music, one pending - Izar was satisfied with the 
Ethics Council's work and felt it had made a substantial contribution 
to the public good. 
 
---------------------------- 
PUBLIC TO GET MORE INVOLVED? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Izar also analyzed the electoral scenario, saying that the 
mensalao scandal was damaging to Members of Congress in general but 
helpful to members of the Ethics Council.  These Deputies, including 
Izar himself, are expected to be easily re-elected, while others will 
face very difficult campaigns.  There is expected to be high turnover 
in the Chamber of Deputies.  In contrast to many analysts who predict a 
high percentage of absenteeism and ballot spoiling in October - voting 
is mandatory in Brazil, but in a typical election, about 20 percent of 
voters either fail to vote ("abstain") or cast "blank" or "null" votes 
- Izar thinks the scandal will motivate people to be more involved in 
the campaign.  He thinks more ordinary citizens will take on a more 
active role in politics, working to defeat corrupt politicians and to 
support "clean" candidates.  This is because the voters, mainly from 
the middle- and upper-middle class, are, in his view, determined to 
defeat the PT and President Lula's government.  He is less sanguine, 
however, about the prospects for political reform.  Per ref E, Brazil 
uses a system in which Federal Deputies are elected by entire states at 
large based on each party's proportion of the total vote and individual 
candidates' personal votes.  Izar does not see any prospect of Brazil's 
elected politicians' voting to move to a single-district system. 
"They'd be voting against their own interests," he explained.  And 
while he believes that a purely proportional system would be ideal, he 
also doesn't expect that to happen any time soon, largely because so 
many candidates benefit from the personal vote. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Although he has changed parties five times since his first 
election as a state legislator in 1983, indicating he has no strong 
political allegiances, Izar is clearly enjoying and taking advantage of 
his position as Chairman of the Ethics Council in his campaign for 
reelection.   He says he always gets compliments for his work on the 
Ethics Council when visiting his constituencies in Sao Paulo.  He is 
absolutely certain he's going to be reelected.  However, he believes 
it's going to be a very difficult election for his colleagues from both 
his own PTB and Lula's PT.   The PTB supports LulaQs government in the 
Congress but is likely to support Geraldo Alckmin, Sao Paulo former 
Governor from the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), against Lula 
in the race for President, though it won't formally enter into an 
alliance with the PSDB.  The PTB, like other small- and medium-sized 
 
SAO PAULO 00000543  003 OF 003 
 
 
parties, has to exceed the "barrier clause" threshold of five percent 
of the nation-wide Chamber of Deputies vote to survive.  The PTB's 
popularity has been badly damaged by the mensalao scandal, in which the 
partyQs national president, Roberto Jefferson, was a key figure. 
However, like his "co-religionist" Luiz Antonio Fleury (see ref C), 
Izar is sure the PTB will survive because isn't part of any national 
alliance.  Regardless of what his party does, Izar said he will support 
Alckmin for president, and he thinks Alckmin still has a chance to beat 
Lula, despite recent setbacks.  Like the majority of political 
insiders, however, Izar does think the PT is in trouble.  It will get 
60 to 70 seats in the Congress, down from 90 in the 2002 general 
election.  According to Izar, voters from the middle and upper classes 
are so irritated with Lula that they will have strong participation in 
the election.  He says when he meets with voters he tells them they 
have to do more if they want to defeat Lula.  END COMMENT. 
 
WOLFE