VZCZCXYZ0024
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0494/01 1291326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091326Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5008
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6154
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7069
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2415

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000494 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: SOUTH AMERICA, 
VENEZUELA, BRAZIL, URUGUAY, BOLIVIA, MERCOSUL; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "Fragmentation Of Latin America" 
 
University of Sao Paulo Professor Boris Fausto opined in liberal 
Folha de S. Paulo (5/8): "President Evo Morales' decision to 
nationalize the Bolivian oil and gas industry, using the military 
and exacerbating the nationalist climate, is of itself a serious 
occurrence, but it fits into an even dimmer scenario. Actually, 
despite endless discourses on South America's integration, what has 
become evident is the continent's increasing fragmentation.... The 
episode has shown the strong ties uniting Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez 
and Evo Morales - a trio combining the old-style communism of one of 
them with the populist delirium of the other two.... This and other 
facts point clearly towards the fragmentation of Latin American 
nations. Mercosul today is an institution suffering from an acute or 
even terminal crisis.... The Venezuelan president interferes in 
other nations' internal affairs.... Brazil's responsibilities 
regarding Latin-American relations have increased given this 
scenario. Unfortunately, however, the precedents are not optimistic 
given the misunderstandings and failures of Brazilian foreign 
policy. Brazil's supposed 'natural hegemony' in South America, which 
was proclaimed by the current administration, only increased its 
rivalries with Argentina." 
 
¶2. "Vienna, A Stage For Chavez" 
 
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo stressed (5/8): "Vienna will be 
the next scenario in which Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will be 
able to exhibit his increasing and deplorable influence in 
Latin-American policy.... The 4th European Union-Latin America 
Summit was designed to foster inter-regional cooperation, especially 
in trade. But every plan involving South Americans becomes uncertain 
with Chavez's noisy and generally histrionic presence.... Chavez was 
one of those responsible for preventing the re-launching of the FTAA 
in the Summit of the Americas last year in Argentina.... Lula has 
been unable to react to the influence of Chavez, who has gradually 
become Bolivian President Evo Morales' mentor.... It will be an 
enormous surprise if Chavez's participation in the summit is 
discreet and reasonably rational. This does not fit in his modus 
operandi.... The damage will be much more significant -and will go 
beyond ridicule - if Chavez hampers attempts to create a commercial 
understanding between Andean and European nations. No one knows what 
Chavez's behavior will be when the EU and Mercosul representatives 
discuss the re-launching of negotiations between the two blocs.... 
Chavez's association with Mercosul makes the future of this project 
even more uncertain. The only thing that is certain is his 
increasing interference in his neighbors' affairs, encouraged by 
Lula's subservience." 
 
¶3. "Uruguay Prefers The US" 
 
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (5/7) editorialized: "It seems 
clear that Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez will not hesitate to 
leave Mercosul if the project of a trade agreement with the US 
advances. After all, Uruguay can only profit from the change, 
especially if Mercosul continues stuck in the disputes between 
Brazil and Argentina and without prospects of agreements with the US 
and the European Union." 
 
¶4. "Shame In Puerto Iguazu" 
 
The lead editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (5/6) 
remarked: "The presidential meeting in Puerto Iguazu [Argentina] 
served only to confirm the victory obtained by Hugo Chavez as a 
result of his tutored Andean leader's [Evo Morales] decision 
announced on May 1st. It was also an opportunity for Lula - the only 
loser in the episode - to take on an embarrassing role.... Lula 
chose the path of capitulation to please the neighbors who resented 
his aspirations of regional leadership, and this is something that 
he and only he refuses to see.... The tacit support that Lula 
provides to Chavez is a demonstration of irresponsibility that will 
become part of history. On behalf of an illusion, Lula seems to have 
abandoned the defense of Brazilian national interests. In Puerto 
Iguazu, he was a shy supporting actor in a show stolen by star Hugo 
Chavez." 
 
¶5. "The Price Of Illusions" 
 
Sociologist Francisco Weffort observed in center-right O Estado de 
¶S. Paulo (5/6): "President Lula's South American policy collapsed 
like a house of cards as a result of Evo Morales' maneuver that 
nationalized Bolivian gas and oil exploration and production.... 
Since he adores selling illusions, Lula has promised to discuss the 
 
subject in conversations with Morales, Nestor Kirchner and Hugo 
Chavez.... Unnerved by its chief's delusions, the GOB's first 
responses to the crisis are not hopeful.... This crisis teaches 
Brazil some lessons. The first is to look for alternatives to 
Bolivian gas as soon as possible.... The second is that alliances 
between nations can only occur in a scenario far away from the 
demagoguery of Lula, Chavez, etc.  They can only occur between 
economic and politically stable nations willing to respect 
contracts, and obviously that has not been Morales' case since 
winning the elections. The fact that Lula supported Morales in the 
elections demonstrates once again his ignorance in international 
affairs and his inclination to deceive himself regarding his own 
power." 
McMullen