VZCZCXYZ0020
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNC #0643/01 1221353
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021353Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5945
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 4620
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS 3570
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1174
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0455
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0531
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2021 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT CENSUS UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MUCH 
CLARITY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Although authorities enforced a strict 
13-hour curfew to improve prospects for an accurate count, 
lingering questions about the reliability of the Turkish 
Cypriot census on April 30 are likely to undercut the utility 
of what was -- by local standards -- an enormously complex 
undertaking.  The most serious problem seems to have been the 
relative inexperience of the 5,800 census takers, many of 
them college students hired for the one-day event.  The 
Director of the "State Planning Organization" (SPO) admitted 
to us that her office would need to develop a system for 
counting those who had been overlooked in the April 30 count. 
 The big question, of course, is whether anyone outside of 
the "TRNC" will accept the results of the census as accurate 
and legitimate.  Greek Cypriot officials got out of the 
blocks early in publicly dismissing the value of the Turkish 
Cypriot census.  Having taken this step, however, it will be 
extremely difficult for Turkish Cypriot authorities to agree 
-- as the Greek Cypriot side is demanding -- that the 
question of a census should be included on the agenda for 
UN-sponsored technical talks.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) As planned, Turkish Cypriot authorities enforced a 
strict curfew from 5:00 am until 6:00 pm on April 30 so that 
the "State Planning Organization" (SPO) could conduct a 
general census.  Police charged at least 21 people with 
violating the mandatory curfew.  Approximately 5,800 staff 
(mostly college students) fanned out across the "TRNC" with 
the goal of an actual count of all those present in the 
north.  Even tourists were restricted to their hotels so that 
they could be included in the count.  In addition to the raw 
numbers, SPO census takers had a list of 61 questions, with 
each staff member required to survey approximately 20 homes. 
Preliminary results should be available within a few days, 
but "Prime Minister" Ferdi Soyer told diplomats at an April 
26 briefing that it would take at least six months to prepare 
a thorough analysis of the data. 
 
¶3.  (C) It is already clear, however, that execution of the 
census survey was far from flawless.  Turkish Cypriot 
newspapers reported that the SPO failed to find a substantial 
(but unknown) number of people, even though it had extended 
the count beyond the 6:00 pm deadline.  Some residents of 
Nicosia and Famagusta reportedly called the SPO offices to 
complain that they had not been counted.  SPO Director Busa 
Erozan admitted to us on May 2 that there had been some 
problems, but she expected that there would be some 
announcement as early as May 3 regarding special procedures 
for those overlooked in the initial count.  Erozan also noted 
that SPO had not yet counted the Turkish military forces 
present in Cyprus.  This would likely take another couple of 
days. 
 
¶4.  (C) Soyer's Private Secretary, Erkut Sahali, downplayed 
the problems reported in the press.  Organizers, he insisted, 
had allowed for a margin-of-error of 0.2%.  Most of the error 
rate could be attributed to the construction of new 
residences that had not yet been recorded in the municipal 
records.  Ozlem Oguz, the Central Census Controller for the 
Morphou region, agreed that the final results would be fairly 
accurate, at least with respect to establishing the total 
number of Turkish Cypriots and the number of Turkish 
settlers.  Other statistical data collected may not prove as 
useful, however, as the inexperienced census officers often 
did not handle the questionnaires professionally.  There were 
not enough census takers to handle the volume.  For this 
reason, she believed, the SPO had missed a significant number 
of houses and had failed to solicit the kind of detailed 
information necessary for the forms to be truly useful. 
Moreover, the "TRNC's" tardy request for the Council of 
Europe to provide observers for the census exercise could 
even serve to emphasize the procedural shortcomings on 
display. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Meanwhile, Greek Cypriots were quick to reject the 
exercise altogether.  Government Spokesman Yiorgos Lillikas 
maintained that the Turkish Cypriot census was of no value. 
The Greek Cypriot side, he noted, wanted this issue to be 
discussed at the technical talks being organized under UN 
auspices.  To be valid, the census itself would have to be 
conducted in the presence of observers from the EU and other 
international organizations.  House President and AKEL leader 
Christofias criticized the Turkish Cypriot refusal to hold 
the census under UN auspices and dismissed the April 30 count 
as "unreliable."  In their editorials, Greek Cypriot 
 
newspapers charged that the Turkish Cypriot census was 
primarily aimed at legitimizing the presence of Turkish 
settlers. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment:  Although it seems a simple enough exercise, 
the idea of a census on the Turkish Cypriot side is 
politically-charged and inherently controversial.  The big 
question is whether outsiders -- and in particular Greek 
Cypriots, the UN,  and the EU -- will be ready to accept the 
results of the April 30 count as representing a legitimate 
and reasonably accurate approximation of the north's 
population.  This seems highly unlikely.  Having taken this 
step, however, it will be equally difficult for the Turkish 
Cypriots to agree that there is a need to put the question of 
a census onto the agenda for the technical committees.  Their 
argument is likely to be that the April 30 headcount makes 
this a moot point.  We would not expect the Greek Cypriot 
side to agree, and it will be very difficult for third 
parties to say that the exercise was so credible that the 
questions attendant to demographics in the north have been 
resolved by the census. 
SCHLICHER