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FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0675
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RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1173
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0933

62898
2006-05-04 23:27:00
06MEXICO2409
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO1461
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FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0675
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1173
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0933
TAGS: PGOV MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: NEW POLLS SUGGEST PAN CANDIDATE CALDERON MAY CROSS 
THE FINISH LINE FIRST  
REF: MEXICO 1461 
 
Classified By: PolCounselor Leslie A. Bassett for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  A flurry of post-debate polls puts National 
Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon ahead of former 
front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)(Democratic 
Revolution Party - PRD) by between 1-7 percentage points, 
depending on the poll.  PAN party President Manuel Espino 
told us 5/3 that he had cut deals with PRI governors that 
made him confident Calderon's victory was assured.  Espino 
said that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the PAN had not 
cut any deals with teacher's union leader Elba Esther 
Gordillo, meaning that New Alliance (PANAL) candidate Roberto 
Campa would likely finish the campaign.  Espino acknowledged 
differences between party leaders and the Calderon campaign 
team.  He also stressed the PAN's interest in playing a 
greater role regionally to counter Chavez and Morales. End 
Summary 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  A series of published polls taken after the April 
25 presidential debate (reftel) for the first time put 
Calderon ahead of AMLO, who has been the frontrunner in polls 
for over 18 months.  Milenio newspaper released its poll May 
2 indicating Calderon held 36 percent of those polled, AMLO 
33 percent, and PRI candidate Madrazo 28 percent.  On May 3 
Reforma newspaper released a poll that gave Calderon 40 
percent, AMLO 33 percent, and Madrazo 22 percent.  On May 4 
Televisa released poll results that gave Calderon 35, AMLO 34 
and Madrazo 27.  Espino told us that internal PAN polls give 
Calderon a seven point lead over AMLO, and added that GEA-ISA 
would release a poll showing him five points ahead.   Just a 
month ago the polls moved for the first time towards a 
"technical tie" between Calderon and AMLO, with AMLO slightly 
ahead.  These most recent polls indicate a continued drop in 
support for AMLO as Calderon gains momentum. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Espino and his colleagues (two of whom were wearing 
"Felipe Calderon" button-downs) attributed AMLO's fall to bad 
PRD campaign strategies, AMLO's controversial attacks on 
President Fox, and AMLO's decision not to participate in the 
first national debate.  They were extremely pleased with the 
impact of PAN "spots" which linked AMLO to corruption in 
Mexico City politics during his time as mayor, and compared 
him to Venezuelan President Chavez.  The PAN will keep the 
heat on AMLO, Espino said.  He added -- surprisingly -- that 
he had spoken to PRI candidate Madrazo and the two had agreed 
to focus their respective energies on eroding support for 
AMLO.  Espino explained that it was important to the PAN 
strategy to keep third place contender Madrazo a viable 
player in the race.  If the Madrazo campaign collapses, the 
PRI votes will migrate not to the PAN but to the PRD. 
 
¶4.  (C)  That said, the PAN was not slow to exploit the very 
evident divisions within the PRI.  Espino confirmed that he 
had been in negotiations with former PRI Secretary General 
Elba Esther Gordillo (also head of the teachers' union). 
Gordillo is the driving force behind the PANAL campaign and 
candidate Roberto Campa, and the PAN had hoped to get Campa 
out of the race and attract his vote.  However, Espino 
continued, Gordillo's price was too high (in terms of 
congressional and cabinet positions) and polling showed PANAL 
was drawing less than one percent of the vote.  Post the 
April 25 debate, Espino said, the PAN decided it didn't need 
Gordillo.  He added that the Calderon camp wasn't pleased 
with this outcome, but the party had the final say.  Espino 
acknowledged that he had come to the same decision months ago 
while negotiating a possible alliance with the PVEM "Green" 
party -- the Greens were charging too much for the few 
percentage points of support it could deliver.  The PRI ended 
up in alliance with the Greens, to the Calderon camp's 
dismay.  Time has shown, Espino concluded, that he was right 
-- the Greens cost the PRI more trouble in terms of conflict 
over congressional seats than they will likely deliver on 
July 2. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Espino further confided that the PAN has solid deals 
with rebellious PRI governors who are secretly but actively 
aiding the Calderon campaign while giving lip-service to 
supporting Madrazo.   The PRI governors relish the autonomy 
and authority they have enjoyed under Fox and know that 
Madrazo will rein them in if elected, Espino explained. 
While Espino would not confirm any specifics, it is common 
knowledge that Sonora Governor Bours has met with the 
Calderon team.  Espino implied that Nuevo Leon Governor 
Natividad Gonzalez Paras might be another one by telling us 
that the governors formerly supporting rival PRI candidate 
Montiel were now working behind the scenes for Calderon. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Espino concluded by saying the PAN was confident 
 
MEXICO 00002409  002 OF 002 
 
 
Calderon would win, and hoped to take a plurality in 
Congress.  The divisions within the PRI made the PAN hopeful 
that eventually renegade PRI congressmembers might cross the 
aisle to vote with the PAN, giving them an effective 
majority.  The PAN, he stressed, would remain a good partner 
with the U.S.  It would also look to the region to see what 
more could be done to counter Chavez, Bolivian President 
Morales, and other leftist leaders now coming to power in 
Latin America. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Comment:  The PAN is clearly buoyed by Calderon's 
good performance in the debates and the recent shift in the 
polls.  Calderon's move to first place makes it more likely 
both the PRD and the PRI will intensify their complaints that 
President Fox is using undue influence to support Calderon. 
The challenge for the PAN is to consolidate Calderon's 
current bubble of popularity into solid support in the 60 
days remaining before the elections. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
KELLY