VZCZCXRO4664
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2408/01 1242322
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 042322Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0673
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1171

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002408 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: AMLO: FOREIGN POLICY STAYS THE SAME BUT CAMPAIGN 
STRATEGY TO CHANGE 
 
REF: MEXICO 1461 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR LESLIE A. BASSETT, REASONS: 
 1.4(B/D). 
 
Summary 
 
¶1. (C) On Tuesday 05/02, leftist candidate Andres Manuel 
Lopez Obrador (AMLO) chaired a foreign policy program hosted 
by the Consulting Council for an Alternative Project for the 
Nation.  The Council is led by former Mexican Ambassador to 
the United Nations and AMLO advisor Porfirio Munoz Ledo and 
was created as AMLO and the Democratic Revolutionary Party's 
(PRD) principal campaign strategy/policy development group. 
AMLO used the opportunity to reiterate to the audience his 
six main foreign policy objectives.  The presentation was one 
of his first thematic events since recent polls showed him in 
a statistical tie or behind conservative candidate Felipe 
Calderon.  According to two separate advisors close to the 
campaign, the event also signified a shift in AMLO's campaign 
strategy - an attempt to refocus certain themes to a broader 
audience.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On May 2 the Consulting Council for an Alternative 
Project for the Nation hosted a foreign policy program titled 
"Dignity of the Republic."  The program, consisting of a 
round table of foreign policy experts, was chaired by AMLO 
and included presentations analyzing Mexico's foreign policy 
toward Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, North 
America, and globalization.  Experts also suggested a number 
of important changes the next president would need to make in 
order to raise Mexico's profile in the region and globally, 
which included stronger relationships with Latin American 
neighbors, consistent and focused defense of migrant rights, 
and better cooperation on transnational crimes and terrorism. 
 
¶3. (U) AMLO used the event to reiterate his six main foreign 
policy objectives.  There were no significant changes to 
AMLO's policy, as initially described during a campaign event 
in Ciudad Juarez in March (reftel), and it was clear the 
issue was not one of his top priorities.  Once again, AMLO 
discussed a policy that would be consistent with the 
objectives set out by the Mexican constitution and spoke of a 
diplomacy reflective of domestic policies, saying that Mexico 
cannot possibly discuss security or human rights abroad if 
both were not appropriately addressed domestically.  He 
described a "measured and prudent" diplomacy where Mexico 
would not assume the lead and where the country would only 
participate in solutions to global threats within 
international organizations - never unilaterally.  He 
expressed his desire for further economic and commercial 
integration with Latin America and the Caribbean.  Most 
fundamental of all, stated AMLO, is Mexico's bilateral 
relationship with the United States - one he hopes will be of 
mutual respect and collaboration.  AMLO made it clear the 
U.S.-Mexico relationship would be his most important 
objective, declaring to the audience that he will seek ways 
to better manage cooperation, to work together to "organize" 
the migration phenomenon (which he considers the most 
important bilateral issue), and to do more to protect the 
human rights of migrants looking for work and to protect the 
rights of those migrants already in the U.S.  Sticking to the 
immigration theme a bit longer, AMLO also stated that his 
economic development proposals would serve as the necessary 
leverage to convince the U.S. of the need for an immigration 
accord. 
 
Time to Refocus 
 
¶4. (C) The foreign policy presentation came on the heels of 
three public polls showing AMLO's lead slipping or gone.  No 
longer holding his usual commanding lead, AMLO has challenged 
the polls' legitimacy - going so far as to say that President 
Fox's office was manipulating the results before and after 
the first presidential debate April 25 (reftel).  Speculation 
has run rampant that the latest poll results will force AMLO 
to change his campaign strategy or risk falling farther 
behind.  Although he has publicly denied a change in strategy 
is necessary, two close campaign advisors told us 
differently.  According to Javier Quijano, coordinator of a 
small group of trusted advisors, the strategy is in flux, 
which is not a bad thing.  Quijano would not confirm AMLO's 
recent statements that his internal polling shows him 10 
percentage points ahead but stated that the most recent 
Mitofsky poll and PRD polls showed a more favorable 
situation.  He felt optimistic that things will play out much 
better in May, and said that the campaign was already 
organizing another poll that would reach out to over thirty 
thousand registered voters instead of the approximately two 
thousand used in the other polls.  The situation did not 
appear as optimistic to Juan Jose Garcia Ochoa, PRD federal 
 
MEXICO 00002408  002 OF 002 
 
 
deputy and spokesperson for Marcelo Ebrard (PRD candidate for 
Mexico City mayor).  Garcia Ochoa believes the recent polls 
are semi-accurate and that a change in strategy has already 
begun - starting with this program.  He said AMLO will shift 
his focus to the middle class and young voters.  When Poloff 
asked how that was possible when AMLO's campaign slogan is 
"first the poor", Garcia Ochoa explained that AMLO would 
focus on the themes that mattered most to these groups: 
security, immigration, trade, and employment.  Both agreed 
the July 2 vote would be close if things do not turn around 
over the next two months but remained enthusiastically 
positive that AMLO would come out on top. 
 
Comment - Other Campaign Notes 
 
¶5. (C) If Tuesday's program was the start of AMLO's new 
strategy than he may be in more trouble than previously 
thought.  As in his earlier appearances, AMLO seemed 
disinterested or lost in the foreign policy discussion.  If 
he hopes to gain ground on National Action Party (PAN) 
candidate Calderon in areas like security and employment he 
will have to do it with the same enthusiasm and energy he 
shows when addressing the mostly older and poor audiences 
that receive him on campaign events.  Focusing on his foreign 
policy, AMLO still believes he can negotiate a migration 
agreement with the U.S. if he improves economic development 
and job creation in Mexico.  Embassy efforts to explain to 
his advisors the complexities of this issue have either gone 
unheard or have been disregarded.  Either way, if it 
continues to be a main theme in AMLO's foreign policy as 
president it will not only create a difficult start to our 
bilateral relationship, it also may be his first failed 
campaign promise. 
 
¶6. (C) As election day nears, rumors abound as to who will 
fill the candidates' cabinets.  Although AMLO stated earlier 
in the campaign that Dr. Jose Maria Perez Gay would be his 
Foreign Secretary, the press and other analysts believe the 
position may be up for grabs - citing Porfirio Munoz Ledo's 
continued efforts to control all policy making 
responsibilities as a sign of his interest in the position. 
According to Garcia Ochoa, Munoz Ledo has no chance of 
becoming AMLO's Foreign Secretary because he is too active 
and outspoken, the opposite of what AMLO wants in that 
position.  Garcia Ochoa explained that Perez Gay is exactly 
the type of personality AMLO wants, someone who can follow 
orders and not act in opposition to the president.  Garcia 
Ochoa believes Munoz Ledo would be better fit for, and most 
likely is aiming at, Secretary of Governance.  Garcia Ochoa 
admitted that the list of aspirants for that position was 
even longer than the one for congressional seats.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
KELLY