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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMK #0891/01 1421403
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 221403Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4763
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHBVAKS/COMUSNAVCENT  PRIORITY

S E C R E T MANAMA 000891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KMPI BA BILAT POL REFORM
SUBJECT: BAHRAINI POLITICAL SCENE PART I:  GOVERNMENT 
HARASSES DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS AS ELECTIONS APPROACH 
 
REF: A. MANAMA 0836 
     ¶B. MANAMA 0765 
     ¶C. MANAMA 0759 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (S) The forced departure of NDI's project director on May 
12 is just one example of actions taken by elements within 
the government and ruling family to exert increased control 
over the political environment in the run-up to parliamentary 
and municipal council elections later this year.  According 
to several senior Bahraini officials, the GOB wants NDI to 
operate in the country under the leadership of a new 
director.  The government objected to the former director, 
seeing him as too close and sympathetic to the opposition, 
particularly Shia oppositionists.  The Bahrain Transparency 
Society, which worked closely with NDI on various 
democracy-related activities and is a MEPI implementer, was 
the object of a GOB investigation into alleged financial 
improprieties and was forced to suspend its activities while 
it reconstituted its board of directors.  To preempt 
requests, the Minister of Social Development announced that 
Bahrain would not permit any election monitors, either 
international or domestic.  Although King Hamad continues to 
steadfastly pronounce his support for Shia opposition society 
participation in the elections as part of his personal reform 
effort, in private conversations he has said that Bahrain's 
Shia could not be trusted because of their ties to Iran and 
NDI could not expect to come to Bahrain and push 
American-style democracy.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) The May 12 departure of National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) program director Fawzi Guleid (reftels) is but one 
manifestation of an apparent strategy by elements within the 
ruling Al Khalifa family and government to attempt to control 
the political scene and influence the results of the upcoming 
parliamentary and municipal elections.  According to 
well-placed sources, there are those who advocate continued 
reform and openness while others want to circle the wagons to 
protect their authority against moves by oppositionists to 
develop a power base within the elected lower house of 
parliament.  Part I of this two-part series looks at GOB 
harassment of civil society groups supporting political 
reform, and the press campaign against them.  Part II 
explores dynamics within the royal family as it reacts to the 
political challenge posed by opposition participation in the 
elections. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Bahrain Wants NDI, But Not Guleid 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Several Bahraini officials have told the Embassy that 
the government wants NDI to work in the country, and they 
hope NDI re-engages soon with the Bahrain Institute of 
Political Development to conclude a memorandum of 
understanding governing NDI's activities and status.  MFA 
Assistant Under Secretary Shaikh Abdul Aziz bin Mubarak Al 
Khalifa told a visiting delegation led by PM A/S Hillen, and 
EmbOffs separately, that the GOB objected to Guleid, not to 
NDI.  Shaikh Abdul Aziz told Pol/Econ Chief that Guleid, as a 
naturalized American citizen of Somali origin, has an innate 
antipathy toward the regimes of the Gulf, defining the 
situation in terms of the haves and have-nots.  According to 
this argument, Guleid would naturally be drawn to 
oppositionists, in particular the Shia, who contend that 
although they represent the majority of Bahrain's citizens, 
they face prejudice and discrimination.  Shaikh Abdul Aziz 
said that Bahrain would have no problem working with an NDI 
director "with blonde hair and blue eyes," remarking that 
such a person would not be accepted in the same way by the 
opposition or have as much influence as Guleid.  (Comment: 
Any new director would not be as fully steeped in Bahrain's 
political culture as Guleid is, and would not be as 
immediately effective in promoting political participation at 
this late stage in the election process.) 
 
¶4.  (C) NDI has been the object of a virulent press campaign 
against it that peaked in the week following Guleid's May 12 
departure.  Newspapers and columnists opposed to NDI, in 
particular the Sunni-dominated Al Watan and Akhbar Al 
Khaleej, have launched ad hominem attacks on Guleid, NDI, and 
the United States.  (Other papers have taken more balanced or 
even strongly supportive positions, such as Al Wasat and 
columnist Sawsan Al Shaer of Al Watan.)  A May 20 article in 
Arabic daily Al Watan, which is alleged to have strong links 
to the Royal Court, said that NDI and other "research and 
intelligence institutions" lay the groundwork for a new kind 
of international interference in countries called "colored 
coups," a reference to the rose and orange revolutions of 
Georgia and Ukraine.  Columnist Hafedh Al Shaikh from Arabic 
daily Akhbar Al Khaleej wrote on May 16 that he is pleased 
NDI departed Bahrain because the institute had gone too far 
in inciting various groups against each other and "playing a 
dirty and destructive role with an imperialist flavor."  Al 
Watan accused NDI of "being controlled by Jewish leaders who 
are known to have Zionist inclinations."  Akhbar Al Khaleej 
columnist Sayed Zahra wrote on May 14 that "NDI is nothing 
more than a tool of U.S. sabotage and destruction and 
interference in countries' domestic affairs." 
 
--------------------------------- 
Transparency Society Investigated 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Another organization to face GOB harassment is the 
Bahrain Transparency Society (BTS), the local branch of 
Transparency International headed by Jasim Al Ajmi.  BTS has 
received several MEPI grants and periodically co-hosted 
conferences and workshops with NDI.  Registered as an NGO 
with the Ministry of Social Development (MSD), BTS is focused 
on election monitoring and transparency in political 
decision-making on issues such as funding election campaigns 
and drawing electoral constituencies, sensitive issues in 
Bahrain.  BTS monitored elections for the board of the 
Bahrain Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) in early 
2006, earning public praise for its work from Prime Minister 
Shaikh Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa.  It also monitored the 
2002 parliamentary elections with the last-minute approval of 
the government. 
 
¶6.  (C) Even before the BCCI elections, Minister of Social 
Development Fatima Al Baloushi announced that BTS had 
violated its own charter by deciding to reduce the number of 
members of its board from nine to five without the approval 
of her ministry, and ordered BTS to annul internal board 
elections.  She also stated that the ministry was 
investigating alleged financial improprieties committed by 
BTS.  (Note:  We later learned that the funds at the heart of 
the investigation were from a MEPI small grant that, for 
bureaucratic reasons, had not yet been transferred to BTS. 
MSD apparently believed someone at BTS had stolen the money.) 
 Multiple investigations conducted by MSD auditors failed to 
turn up any wrongdoing and Al Baloushi was eventually forced 
to admit publicly that BTS's books were clean.  In doing so, 
however, she ordered the board disbanded, appointed an acting 
chairman, and demanded that BTS conduct no activities until 
it held new elections for the board.  The society acted 
promptly and within weeks a new nine-member board was elected 
and Al Ajmi was again named chairman.  The net result of this 
drawn-out incident was the status-quo-ante, with only time 
and energy wasted. 
 
---------------------------- 
NDI, BTS, Agents of the USG? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) As an organization that is outspoken in its support 
for political reform and openness, BTS has also fared poorly 
in certain newspapers.  On May 17, Al Watan wrote that NDI 
"helped create, supported, and funded" BTS to use it as a 
vehicle for its suspicious activities in the country.  On May 
13, Al Watan stated that the U.S. Embassy wanted BTS to 
monitor Bahrain's elections.  It continued, "If BTS monitored 
the elections and Al Wifaq and Al Waad (Note:  Two opposition 
political societies) did not get a majority in the 
parliament, would the Embassy ask BTS to describe the 
elections results as tampered with?" 
 
¶8.  (C) BTS was the leading election monitor for the 2002 
elections and MEPI awarded BTS a grant in anticipation of it 
doing so again later this year.  In an apparent attempt to 
preempt requests, Minister Al Baloushi has said publicly that 
Bahrain will not allow independent election observers, either 
international or domestic.  Her ministry has informed BTS and 
the Bahrain Human Rights Society (BHRS) that they cannot 
monitor elections because doing so is not among the groups' 
stated goals in their articles of association.  She said, "I 
know that they monitored previous elections, but I wasn't in 
charge then.  Now that I'm in charge, I want to make sure 
that everything is done by the book." 
 
------------------------------ 
Election Monitoring To Proceed 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) BTS Chair Al Ajmi told Pol/Econ Chief that his group 
would monitor the elections with or without the government's 
approval.  He explained that 90 percent of the work of 
monitoring is done well in advance of the elections and is 
based on research on constituencies, voter registration, 
candidates' access to the media, and other factors.  He 
expects election day to proceed smoothly, and will make the 
argument to the government immediately prior to the elections 
that allowing his staff to observe the polling stations will 
enhance the credibility of the elections.  BHRS Assistant 
Secretary General Abdullah Al Durazi said publicly that his 
 
SIPDIS 
organization will monitor the elections even if it is not 
allowed to see what is happening behind the scenes.  "We will 
still be at the polling booths, talking to voters and 
observing what is happening as well as we can.  Not having 
anyone monitoring the elections will create doubt in people's 
minds." 
 
------------------------------------ 
Embassy's "American Eyes" On Bahrain 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (C) Al Watan newspaper has also directly attacked the 
U.S. Embassy in Bahrain.  In a provocative April 30 article 
titled "American Eyes," Al Watan's political editor asks why 
the Embassy "adopts the negative rhetoric of the opposition 
bs8cY7zzIt also slammed the Press and Political FSNs at the Embassy, 
questioning why these (unnamed) individuals provide such poor 
guidance to American officers.  Per septel, a source claims 
that the political editor at Al Watan takes instructions from 
the Royal Court. 
 
--------------------- 
King Weighs In On NDI 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (S) The King has repeatedly called for the participation 
of all of Bahrain's citizens in elections, and following Al 
Wifaq's decision to take part, he instructed the Minister of 
the Royal Court to pass along his personal message of 
congratulations to Al Wifaq Secretary General Shaikh Ali 
Salman.  However, when former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain 
Johnny Young (strictly protect) met with the King during a 
late March - early April private visit to Bahrain, the King 
said he could not trust Bahrain's Shia as full and equal 
partners in the political process because their ties to Iran 
were too strong.  The British Ambassador to Bahrain (strictly 
protect) told the Ambassador that the King had told a 
visiting UK Minister of State that it was fine if NDI worked 
under the auspices of the Bahrain Institute for Political 
Development, but it could not expect to come to Bahrain and 
unrestrictedly push American-style democracy. 
 
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Comment 
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¶12.  (C) The King is faced with a dilemma.  He believes in 
reform and has expended political capital to promote policies 
in favor of openness and compliance with international norms. 
 He is, however, worried about the consequences of widespread 
participation by the opposition in the elections and the 
prospect of a large opposition bloc inside the lower house of 
parliament.  In the context of Iran's aggressive regional 
policies and Shia empowerment and sectarian strife in Iraq, 
elements within the ruling family and government, sometimes 
using closely allied newspapers, have taken steps to 
undermine the credibility of the opposition.  U.S. advocacy 
for greater democratization in the region is interpreted by 
some in Bahrain to mean promoting the opposition at the 
expense of the government.  This perception has resulted in 
the Embassy and civil society groups linked to the USG 
through programming or shared policy objectives to also 
become targets of criticism. 
 
MONROE