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OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHMK #0836/01 1311138
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 111138Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4701
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000836 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMPI BA BILAT REFORM POL
SUBJECT: NDI PROGRAM DIRECTOR SET TO DEPART BAHRAIN 
 
REF: MANAMA 804 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) NDI Program Director for Bahrain Fawzi Guleid is to 
depart Bahrain May 12 after negotiations on an MOU 
regularizing NDI's status in Bahrain reached an impasse and 
the government advised that Guleid's residency permit had 
expired.  Guleid hopes to continue supporting programs for 
Bahrain from outside the country, including a retreat later 
this month in Morocco for Bahraini political societies.  BIPD 
chief Lulwa Al-Awadhi reiterated again yesterday that NDI 
must sign an MOU with BIPD if it is to operate legally in the 
country.  Meanwhile, we are still awaiting a response from 
the Foreign Minister to DNSA Abrams' letter proposing a 
possible compromise as a way forward.  Guleid's imminent 
departure has been a dominant story in the Bahrain press in 
recent days, with most reaction strongly supportive of NDI 
and Guleid.  Nonetheless, it is clear that there are elements 
in the Bahraini leadership who, for one reason or another, 
have been apprehensive about Guleid's and/or NDI's activities 
in Bahrain. 
 
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DEPARTURE SET FOR MAY 12 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) National Democratic Institute (NDI) Program Director 
Fawzi Guleid plans to depart Bahrain May 12 after attempts to 
negotiate an MOU that would have allowed NDI to continue 
working in Bahrain proved unsuccessful and the government 
advised Guleid that his residency permit in Bahrain had 
expired.  While interventions by the Ambassador and Minister 
of Industry and Commerce Hassan Fakhro succeeded in extending 
Guleid's departure date till the end of June (to allow his 
child to finish the school year), Guleid told the Ambassador 
that, having already packed out and planned for the May 12 
departure, his family decided to leave on that date. 
 
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GULEID'S PLANS 
-------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In a farewell call on the Ambassador May 10, Guleid 
discussed his thoughts on next steps for NDI in Bahrain.  He 
noted that he will return to Washington and then turn around 
and travel to Morocco for a May 20-28 retreat he has 
organized in Rabat under the title "Bahraini Political 
Society Leadership Retreat."  He said that representatives 
from several Bahrain political societies intend to 
participate, although one recently dropped out.  For the 
future, he indicated that he could continue to conduct 
programs from NDI's Washington office or another nearby 
country.  He said that NDI could work through civil society 
groups, providing funding for programs or sponsoring 
speakers.  Alternatively, NDI could organize programs outside 
Bahrain and sponsor participants from Bahraini NGOs or 
political societies.  He talked of the possibility of working 
directly with individual political societies. 
 
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NEXT STEPS? 
----------- 
 
¶4. (C) Still outstanding is the issue of NDI's future status 
in Bahrain and how to move forward.  There are two possible 
tracks in play.  One is the draft MOU, which was under 
negotiation for several months between NDI and the Bahrain 
Institute for Political Development (BIPD).  Discussions 
reached an impasse when BIPD head Lulwa Al-Awadhi pulled back 
and insisted on sticking to her original text. In a statement 
reported in the press May 11, Al-Awadhi reiterated that NDI 
must sign a memorandum of cooperation with the BIPD if it is 
to continue to operate in Bahrain.  She reportedly stated 
that NDI had been operating without any legal basis, and that 
its activities were illegal because the new political 
societies law prevented foreign organizations from providing 
technical or financial support to Bahrain's political 
societies.  She stated: "We are currently in negotiations 
with NDI, and the reason that Mr. Guleid's residency hasn't 
been renewed is because they failed to respond to our latest 
correspondence with them.  Signing a memorandum of 
cooperation with us would have allowed Mr. Guleid to stay 
here and continue to work with the political societies." 
 
¶5. (C) The second track is an April 1 letter from Deputy NSA 
Elliott Abrams to Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid, which 
outlined how BIDP's final MOU offer put unacceptable 
 
MANAMA 00000836  002 OF 003 
 
 
restrictions on NDI and proposed a compromise under which a 
letter from the MFA or the BIPD describing NDI's planned 
program in Bahrain could act as a legal basis for NDI's 
existence in Bahrain.  Shaikh Khalid, who has been traveling 
extensively in recent weeks and is expected to travel to 
Europe next week, has not yet answered the letter.  In a 
meeting with the Ambassador May 6 (reftel), Shaikh Khalid 
stated that the Government of Bahrain wants NDI to work in 
the country and hopes NDI and BIPD can reach an agreement on 
an MOU governing NDI's activities.  He reiterated previous 
comments that Bahrain is unhappy with Guleid because he had 
become too close to the opposition, but stressed that Bahrain 
still wanted NDI here. 
 
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LOCAL REACTION 
-------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The imminent departure of NDI's representative and 
what it means for the future of NDI in Bahrain has been a 
dominant local story in the press this week since the news 
broke that Guleid was departing.  With a couple of 
predictable exceptions (the virulently anti-U.S. Islamist MP 
Shaikh Mohammed Khalid said that the day Guleid left would be 
a joyful one), the reaction has been supportive of Guleid and 
NDI. Council of Representatives (COR) first deputy chairman 
Abdulhadi Marhoon said publicly that NDI had provided members 
of the COR valuable advice and had helped advance political 
reform in the country.  MP Jassim Abdul A'al told the press 
that he did not agree that Guleid's activities had been 
illegal.  "It is not illegal at all," he stated.  "Her 
(Al-Awadhi's) information is all mixed up.  The political 
societies law doesn't allow foreign organizations to provide 
funding, but it doesn't prevent them from providing technical 
support.  Mr. Guleid's leaving Bahrain is a big loss for 
Bahrain and for our society." 
 
¶7.  (U) Al Wa'ad president Ebrahim Sharif referred to NDI's 
departure as an expulsion by the GOB.  He said that the BIPD 
"cannot compete with NDI because it does not have open-minded 
people like NDI has."  Al Meethaq Society President Ahmed 
Juma said he regretted that NDI's negotiations met a dead-end 
and expressed hope that talks could continue until a 
compromise was reached.  Al Wefaq member Jalal Fairooz said 
that this move by the government is not wise.  "Political 
societies and NGOs will lose the expertise of an 
international institution, whose purpose was to equip 
politicians with practical skills." 
 
¶8. (U) The Bahrain Youth Forum (BYF), which held a farewell 
reception for Guleid May 10, released a statement in which it 
demanded that the government fill the gap in the law to allow 
foreign organizations like NDI to work in the country.  BYF 
expressed its appreciation for the role NDI has played to 
advance the level of performance of civil society groups and 
political societies.  It said it would like to host Guleid in 
Bahrain for future events. 
 
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COLUMNISTS 
---------- 
 
¶9.  (U) In his May 9 column, Arabic daily Al Wasat 
Editor-in-Chief Mansoor Al Jamri expressed his appreciation 
for the contribution Guleid has made to Bahrain and its 
citizens.  BIPD had spread rumors that, because NDI was 
working for the U.S., it was meddling in Bahrain's internal 
affairs.  He stated the real reason for Guleid's departure 
was that the government did not want NDI in Bahrain because 
his work with the opposition would improve its effectiveness 
in parliament. 
 
¶10. (U) Columnist for Al Watan Arabic daily Sawsan Al Shaer 
also focused on how the GOB has treated Guleid in her May 10 
column.  This treatment was contrary to traditional Bahraini 
hospitality, resulting in private individuals apologizing to 
him for the government's behavior.  Normally the government 
makes efforts to clarify the public's misunderstandings about 
policy decisions.  However, in this case, the GOB has not 
done this, so its decisions seem arbitrary.  "The government 
looks terrified, weak and reluctant about reforms.  Civil 
society institutions will need to adjust themselves to this 
new reality." 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶11. (C)  Bahraini officials have offered two basic 
explanations for why the NDI issue has reached an impasse. 
One is unhappiness with Guleid, who allegedly became too 
closely associated with Shia opposition elements.  In fact, 
Guleid worked with all societies, including of course 
 
MANAMA 00000836  003 OF 003 
 
 
opposition societies like Al-Wifaq, whom he encouraged to 
participate in this year's elections.  The second explanation 
was the legal issue and the need to have NDI's status 
regularized after several years of operating under the 
blessing and sponsorship of the royal court. Beyond these 
concerns, there are undoubtedly deeper issues at play.  The 
government is nervously approaching the upcoming election and 
worried about how the elections will proceed with the 
now-announced participation of major Shia opposition society 
Al-Wifaq.  And Iran under President Ahmadi-Nejad, with its 
feared ability to cause mischief with Bahrain's Shia 
community, is making the leadership increasingly nervous. 
Recent attacks on the U.S. and the U.S. Embassy for its 
alleged contacts with Bahrain societies in the Arabic daily 
Al-Watan, known to have ties to the palace, is an indication 
of the skittishness of some in the leadership.  When the 
Ambassador suggested to a Shura Council member (and supporter 
of NDI) that NDI simply wanted to be able to operate in 
Bahrain as it did in many other countries in the Arab world, 
he responded that Bahrain was different because of its 
Shia/Sunni issue and closeness to Iran. 
 
¶12. C)  All this is not to say that there isn't hope for a 
positive resolution of this issue.  NDI has many friends 
here, as the public reaction has so well highlighted.  The 
departure of Fawzi Guleid will remove him as an alleged 
factor, and allow us to test whether the government will now 
be willing to show the needed flexibility. 
MONROE