VZCZCXYZ0025
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0964/01 1231438
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 031438Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6159
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0645
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, PM/WRA, USSOUTHCOM FOR COMMANDER CRADDOCK 
AND POLAD MOORE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PARM KDEM SOCI
SUBJECT: MOVING CLOSER TO MANPADS DESTRUCTION? 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Conversations with representatives of the 
different political parties represented in Nicaragua's 
National Assembly reveal a claimed willingness from all sides 
to approve the destruction of another 651 MANPADS (leaving 
Nicaragua with an official stock of 400 MANPADS).  Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN-PC) and Liberal Constitutional Party 
(PLC) deputies told Southcom commander General Craddock that 
both parties are in favor of MANPADS destruction.  Sandinista 
Front (FSLN) representatives reported that the FSLN may 
follow the Nicaraguan Army's recommendation to destroy more 
MANPADS in exchange for a political gesture or military 
equipment from the USG.  Nicaraguan Minister of Defense Avil 
Ramirez confirmed that the Army is ready to act as soon as 
the Assembly approves the destruction.  The visit of General 
Craddock and the continued pressure of Emboffs on all GON 
institutions have again brought the MANPADS issue to the fore 
and possibly pushed the National Assembly closer to action. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
GENERAL CRADDOCK URGES DEPUTIES TO APPROVE MANPADS DESTRUCTION 
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- 
 
¶2.  (C) Southcom commander General Bantz Craddock, POLAD, and 
Ambassador met with representatives from the Nicaraguan 
National Assembly's Defense and Government Commission on 
April 21 to discuss defense and security issues.  General 
Craddock urged the deputies to take the lead in approving the 
destruction of the next tranche of 651 MANPADS, as 
recommended by the Nicaraguan Army.  He explained that states 
must restructure their security forces to face new 
transnational threats in the form of terrorists and 
traffickers of arms, drugs, and people.  General Craddock 
pointed out that MANPADS are not useful in this new struggle, 
except as a weapon for terrorists, and are expensive to guard 
and maintain.  He stated that the USG is ready to help 
Nicaragua with defense and security, but that the MANPADS 
form an obstacle to an enhanced relationship. 
 
¶3.  (C) The deputies, representing the ALN-PC, PLC and FSLN 
caucuses, essentially repeated their parties' established 
positions.  Augusto Valle of the ALN-PC caucus agreed that 
the missiles are dangerous and can be used against civil 
targets, and pledged that the ALN-PC is fully in favor of 
destroying all of the MANPADS.  He explained, however, that 
his party only controls 10% of the votes in the National 
Assembly, and that the Assembly's executive board (Junta 
Directiva) must act on two bills previously submitted by the 
Defense Commission - one bill approves the destruction of 651 
MANPADS; the other changes the small arms law to allow the 
approval with a simple majority, rather than a qualified 
(two-thirds) majority vote. 
 
¶4.  (C) Sandinista deputy Elias Chevez responded that the 
FSLN has not opposed MANPADS destruction as an anti-U.S. 
measure, but because at least some of them are needed for 
national defense.  Chevez agreed that transnational threats 
are a problem, but stated that Nicaragua has border disputes 
with Colombia, Honduras, El Salvador, and Costa Rica.  He 
described the situation as a "match" that could "ignite at 
any moment."  Chevez argued that they have not seen any 
reciprocity from other Central American countries in terms of 
arms reduction - in fact the opposite has occurred.  He added 
that the Army maintains very secure storage facilities. 
Chevez concluded that MANPADS destruction is 
not a "closed issue," and the FSLN respects the opinion of 
the Army that 651 could be eliminated without compromising 
national defense.  He also implied that the FSLN may vote 
favorably if the USG offers the Army a "better deal" for the 
missiles. 
 
¶5.  (C) Chevez' fellow Sandinista, Jose Antonio Martinez, 
seconded Chevez' remarks and mentioned Honduras' increase in 
armed forces personnel and Nicaragua's conflict with Costa 
Rica over the Rio San Juan.  Martinez argued that the Army is 
making do with obsolete Soviet-era equipment and requires the 
MANPADS to maintain the balance of power.  He also indicated 
that we might reach an agreement over the MANPADS if the USG 
were to donate modern equipment to the Nicaraguan Army, "to 
fight drug traffickers, for instance." General Craddock 
responded that approval of destruction for the 651 MANPADS 
would be a positive first step and could lead to increased 
bilateral cooperation.  Ambassador Trivelli also noted that 
General Craddock was about to attend a ceremony to donate a 
set of Zodiak boats to the Nicaraguan Navy. 
 
¶6.  (C) PLC deputy Roberto Sanchez implied that the cause of 
Nicaragua's most pressing security issues -- arms and drugs 
trafficking -- became serious during the Sandinista regime 
during the 1980s.  He claimed that the policy of the PLC, as 
a "democratic party," is to try and resolve conflicts without 
the use of force.  Sanchez stated that the PLC supports the 
destruction of the MANPADS and the initiative to change the 
small arms law. 
 
MINISTER OF DEFENSE SUPPORTS MANPADS DESTRUCTION 
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¶7.  (C) Before meeting with the National Assembly deputies, 
General Craddock discussed defense and security issues with 
Nicaraguan Minister of Defense Avil Ramirez.  Ramirez was the 
first to broach the topic of the MANPADS, claiming that the 
GON is ready to "finish the action."  He mentioned the 
General's meeting with the deputies and offered to repeat the 
Army's and Ministry's assessment that they should destroy 
another 651 MANPADS.  Ramirez noted that "public opinion" is 
against elimination of MANPADS stocks given Nicaragua's 
border disputes and assured the General that Nicaragua's 
MANPADS are "safe and secure." 
 
¶8.  (C) General Craddock responded that the MANPADS are 
obsolete in terms of national defense and represent a danger 
to Nicaragua and the world.  He urged Ramirez to explain to 
the Nicaraguan public that the armed forces need to 
restructure their capabilities to face the transnational 
threats of the 21st Century. 
 
SANTOS: "WE NEED A GESTURE" 
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¶9.  (C) Polcouns and poloff met with FSLN foreign affairs 
officer Samuel Santos the evening of April 21 to discuss 
MANPADS and other topics.  Santos concurred with his 
colleagues on the Defense Commission that the FSLN is willing 
to abide by the Army's recommendation and destroy another 651 
MANPADS.  He stated that the FSLN would have to take into 
account the political optics of the vote and 
would expect a "gesture" on the part of the USG in exchange 
for approving the destruction.  (Comment: In an earlier 
conversation with polcouns, Santos indicated that such a 
gesture could entail a positive statement from the USG 
regarding the FSLN action.  End Comment.) 
 
COMMENT: WE'VE HEARD IT ALL BEFORE 
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¶10.  (C) Several PLC representatives, including ex-president 
of the Defense Commission Fernando Avellan, have claimed that 
the PLC supports the destruction of the MANPADS.  In 2005, 
the PLC argued that the Sandinistas were holding the MANPADS 
votes hostage using bureaucratic procedures through their 
control of the Junta Directiva presidency.  In 2006, however, 
the PLC has failed to act on its promises, even though the 
Junta has a friendly president and a Liberal majority.  The 
PLC continues to vacillate between unqualified support for 
MANPADS destruction and insisting that the USG not oppose an 
amnesty vote for convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman in 
exchange for the approval.  Whatever the PLC's true 
intentions, both bills remain dormant in the Junta Directiva. 
 As they did in voting to pass CAFTA implementation, the 
Sandinistas might be willing to support the destruction of 
the 651 MANAPADS.  However, they are unlikely to support the 
destruction of the remaining 400. 
 
¶11.  (C) General Craddock and POLAD Moore cleared on this 
cable. 
TRIVELLI