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Viewing cable 06LAGOS720, PRESIDENT TO RESHUFFLE CABINET AND PDP AFTER THIRD

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LAGOS720 2006-05-26 15:48 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Consulate Lagos
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

261548Z May 06
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000720 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TO RESHUFFLE CABINET AND PDP AFTER THIRD 
TERM LOSS 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) Transcorp Director and Obasanjo insider Otunba Funso 
Lawal told the Consul General the President, stung by the 
third term amendment defeat, was planning to reshuffle his 
cabinet and the PDP machinery to reward the faithful and to 
bruise the indifferent and disloyal.  By these moves, 
Obasanjo hopes to show that he has not lost his teeth, 
remains in control and that he should not be crossed. 
Turning more pessimistic, Lawal confided the President now 
realized Vice President Atiku wielded more influence in the 
Party than they had thought and still more than Obasanjo. 
Lawal said Obasanjo remained apoplectic about the Atiku 
Presidency.  With the term extension dead for the present, 
Obasanjo hoped for an expedient partnership with former 
military head-of-state Babangida to pull Atiku out of the 
race once and or all.  However, Obasanjo is also not 
enamored with Babangida and still has no successor in mind. 
End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
THIRD TERM LOSS DUE TO WEAK LEADERSHIP AND FRACTURED PARTY 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2.  (C) Otunba Funso Lawal, Transcorp board member and 
Obasanjo insider, initially told the Consul General  Obasanjo 
was disappointed but was also taking the loss of this third 
term ambition in stride.  As the conversation evolved, Lawal 
portrayed Obasanjo as a hurt and angry man searching for his 
bearings.  Lawal said a group of Obasanjo insiders, mostly 
Transcorp directors, did a "post-mortem" on the failed third 
term amendment process.  The third term agenda was not 
originally pushed by the President, but was instead the 
brainchild of Obasanjo straphangers like Greg Mbadiwe, 
claimed Lawal.  Over time, the President became enthralled 
with the prospect of tenure extension.  Since he jumped 
aboard a moving third term train, he made the fatal mistake 
of sticking with those who started the push.  This mistake 
was compounded when the unpopular Ibrahim Mantu became his 
chief advocate in the Senate and Senator Mantu and the 
acerbic Femi Fani-Kayode, the President's public affairs 
specialist, became the chief public spokesmen for the third 
term project.  If more respectable figures had taken a more 
active role, then Obasanjo would have had a better chance, 
rued Lawal. 
 
3.  (C) However, many people in Obasanjo's employ did not 
serve their boss, Lawal observed.  Obasanjo's cabinet was 
split over the issue, claimed Lawal, and ministers such as 
Minister of Information Frank Nweke who should have openly 
supported the amendment were mute, and thus passively 
opposed.  Still others surreptitiously undermined Obasanjo. 
Obasanjo was stung that several ministers chose the sidelines 
as their preferred location during the battle.  In an attempt 
to regain the political initiative, Obasanjo was planning a 
major speech for May 29, Democracy Day.  In that speech, 
Obasanjo will attempt to explain his position regarding the 
third term and assure Nigeria that he accepts the National 
Assembly verdict, Lawal indicated.  However, Obasanjo is also 
contemplating a major cabinet reshuffle and might use the May 
29 speech as a vehicle to announce it.  Lawal predicted the 
reshuffling would reward those who supported the third term 
project.  This has become a litmus test for Obasanjo, he 
added. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
A WOUNDED PRESIDENT TO PURGE THE UNFAITHFUL 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Betraying that Obasanjo had not accepted the defeat 
of his post-2007 ambitions, Lawal stated Obasanjo was stunned 
that PDP members in the National Assembly did not endorse 
him.  While they knew the battle would be tough, he did not 
expect so many defectors.  While implicitly acknowledging 
Obasanjo's camp might have passed money, he claimed Atiku and 
Babangida distributed cash to bolster anti-third term numbers 
in the Assembly. 
 
5.  (C) This revolt proves how much influence Vice President 
Atiku still retained in the party, continued Lawal.  While 
Obasanjo controlled the national executive of the PDP, Atiku 
controlled the rank and file, Lawal asserted.  He said 
Obasanjo would attempt to use a carrot-and-stick approach to 
try to gain control of the party but he feared that time was 
too limited for Obasanjo.  Moreover, he admitted that 
Obasanjo had not yet decided on a course of action except 
that he wanted to thwart Atiku. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6.  (C) Lawal was nonplused and, to some degree, his mood 
probably reflects the President's.  Lawal had backed the 
third term attempt and apparently never considered the severe 
fall-out that would ensue should Obasanjo lose the gambit. 
While he said Obasanjo now would work toward reconciliation, 
the moves he described Obasanjo preparing to take spoke more 
to another "r" - revenge.  What was more telling was Lawal's 
assertion that Obasanjo did not have a back-up plan and was 
now looking for one, but for the time being Obasanjo's 
lodestar was to stymie Atiku.  End comment. 
BROWNE