VZCZCXYZ0015
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKU #1915/01 1441630
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241630Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4689
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS KUWAIT 001915 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS, NOFORN 
 
FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: RACING THE CLOCK TO PREPARE FOR KUWAIT'S 
JUNE 29 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF:  A) KUWAIT 1844 
 B) KUWAIT 1833 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  Summary: Debate over the Amir's May 21 decision to dissolve 
Parliament is already fading as focus shifts to the June 29 
parliamentary elections.  Though candidate registration begins 
officially May 25, many prospective candidates have already launched 
their campaigns.  According to one estimate, spending on the 
campaigns is expected to reach 100 million KD (approximately $346 
million).  Accounting for 57% of the total number of voters, women 
will have a significant impact on the elections, though few Kuwaitis 
expect a female candidate to be elected.  Many of Kuwait's tribes 
have started preparing for primaries to choose one representative 
from the tribe to represent them in the elections.  (Note: Though 
officially prohibited, the Government does not prevent pre-election 
primaries.  End note.)  Several political associations from similar 
ideological currents have begun consultations to coordinate on 
candidates to support.  A liberal columnist made a case for 
international observers.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  Only days after the Amir dissolved Parliament (ref B), 
candidates are already gearing up for the June 29 elections and have 
begun staking out election headquarters in empty lots, holding 
meetings with key supporters, and hitting the diwaniya (discussion 
salon) circuit.  The Council of Ministers is expected to begin 
registration of candidates on May 25.  According to Article 24 of 
the Elections Law, applications for candidacy must be submitted in 
writing to the electoral constituency's police headquarters within 
ten days of the start of the registration period.  Already numerous 
public figures have announced their intention to run for the 
elections, including several women. 
 
Parliamentary Elections Equals Big Business 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  The Arabic daily Al-Qabas reported May 23 that "commercial 
market sources" estimate spending on the upcoming election campaigns 
to reach a total of 100 million KD (approximately $346 million) at 
an average rate of 3 million KD ($10 million) per day to meet the 
requirements of advertisements, campaign headquarters, 
transportation, and other campaign expenses.  The sources added that 
a considerable number of the potential candidates are liquidating 
their stock portfolios at the Kuwait Stock Exchange in order to 
ensure sufficient funds to cover their electoral expenses.  (Note: 
Actual data on costs and financing methods are rare.  End note.) 
 
Optimism, but Slim Chance for Female Candidates 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4.  According to the most recent electoral rolls, the total number 
of registered voters in Kuwait is 340,248 (194,910 females and 
145,338 males).  Most contacts believe the chance of a woman being 
elected to Parliament is slim, noting that Kuwaiti women do not have 
adequate time to put together effective campaigns against men who 
have 44 years of experience.  They also argue that local customs and 
traditions, such as male-dominated diwaniyas, favor Kuwaiti men and 
restrict women's ability to reach wider audiences.  Women, who 
account for 57% of the total number of voters, are nonetheless 
expected to play an important role in the elections.  They are not 
necessarily going to favor female candidates, and are likely to 
follow voting patterns related to local interests. 
 
Tribes Entering the Fray with Election Primaries 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5.  Three Kuwaiti tribes published separate ads in the Arabic daily 
Al-Rai Al-Aam on May 23 inviting would-be tribal candidates to 
contact that tribe's leadership to arrange for meetings that aim at 
"coordination and consultation," an indication that the tribes 
intend to hold primaries to choose one representative from the tribe 
to represent them in the elections.  (Note: According to Article 45 
of the Elections Law, tribal and sectarian primaries are prohibited 
and punishable by a fine and up to three years in prison, however, 
the Government seldom enforces this law.  End note.)  In a related 
development, the Arabic daily Al-Watan reported May 23 that 
consultations have intensified between some political associations, 
specifically the Salafi Movement and the Islamic Constitutional 
Movement (ICM), to coordinate on which candidates will run where, 
instead of competing to the detriment of both associations. 
 
Liberal Columnist: Why This Election Is Different 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6.  In a May 23 editorial published in Al-Rai Al-Aam, liberal 
columnist Ahmed Al-Deyain stressed the need to invite international 
observers to monitor the upcoming parliamentary elections, arguing 
that this is not interference in Kuwait's domestic affairs.  "The 
June 29 elections will be different from any past elections 
witnessed by Kuwait" for four reasons, he claimed.  First, the 
political climate surrounding the upcoming elections is different 
 
from any former climate (i.e. there is a popular counter-corruption 
and pro-reform movement and momentum that crystallized during the 
tumultuous "We Want Five [electoral constituencies]" rallies). 
Second, there is a significant amount of political rhetoric that is 
critical of the ruling regime and anti-corruption and pro-reform, 
which will necessarily reflect in the campaign themes of many of the 
candidates.  Third, there is tangible popular dissatisfaction and 
resentment as a result of the steady deterioration of negotiations 
on electoral reform, ineffective administration, "flagrant 
governmental maneuvers" against reform, and the prevalence of 
corruption.  Fourth, the participation of women for the first time 
in parliamentary elections and the significant increase in the size 
of the electoral base will have a serious and influential impact on 
the conduct and outcome of parliamentary elections. 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
 
LEBARON