This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000793 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG UG RW ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND 
NORD 
 
 
Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: North Kivu's "Grand Nord" region, the assumed 
stronghold of candidates and political parties of Nande 
tribal origin, is undergoing a political transformation of 
sorts in the months leading up to the DRC's July 30 
presidential and legislative elections. Long a power base for 
national politicians such as Mbusa Nyamwisi and Pierre 
Pay-Pay (both Nande), the Grand Nord appears to be making 
room for the distinctly non-Nande People's Party for 
Reconstruction and Development (PPRD), the party backing DRC 
President Joseph Kabila. This emerging support for the PPRD 
may come at the expense of the RCD-K/ML party of Nyamwisi. As 
a result, the region remains politically active, although 
fears of post-election violence and foreign interference are 
widespread. End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) During a May 4-6 visit to North Kivu province, PolOff 
and EconOff met with a variety of regional authorities and 
political actors, including officials from the Catholic 
Church, civil society, political parties and the business 
community. EmbOffs visited the towns of Beni, Kasindi and 
Butembo, all of which are situated in North Kivu's "Grand 
Nord," a region dominated by the Nande tribe. The Nande pride 
themselves on their enterprise, having created for themselves 
a regional business network largely without any input from 
state authorities. (Note: Economic conditions in North Kivu 
among the Nande community will be reported septel. End note.) 
The Grand Nord is politically active, with the area serving 
as a launching pad for the political ambitions of various 
Nande politicians. 
 
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SHIFTING NANDE ALLIANCES 
------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The dominant political party of the Grand Nord has 
been the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Kisangani/Liberation 
Movement (RCD-K/ML), led by former rebel leader and current 
Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi, himself a 
Nande. The RCD-K/ML is largely a party built on ethnic Nande 
identity, garnering little support outside of North Kivu. Yet 
because of the economic power of the Nande in the region, 
RCD-K/ML has been able to build a national name for itself, 
albeit a small one compared to other DRC political parties. 
Nyamwisi, in an effort to broaden his party's appeal, is 
running as a candidate for president under the banner of 
"Forces for Renewal," a coalition of Congolese political 
parties. (Note: Former National Assembly President Olivier 
Kamitatu -- who hails from Bandundu province -- and his 
party, the Alliance for the Renewal of Congo -- are also 
members of this larger alliance. In the Grand Nord, though, 
it has been the RCD-K/ML dominating the political scene. End 
note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite the past popularity of Nyamwisi, his 
position as the pre-eminent political leader of the Nande has 
been challenged in recent months by the candidacy of former 
Mobutu-period minister Pierre Pay-Pay, also a Nande. Several 
political observers in North Kivu told PolOff that Nyamwisi's 
support among the Nande population has been slipping recently 
because he has not visited the region since announcing his 
candidacy for president earlier this year. The assistant 
Bishop of Butembo, Monsignor Emmanuel, speculated that those 
who would normally support Nyamwisi may now instead consider 
voting for Pay-Pay for this perceived "slight" by Nyamwisi. 
PolOff was hard-pressed, however, to discover any visible 
signs of support for Pay-Pay's Coalition of Congolese 
Democrats (CODECO) party; in fact, during a four-hour drive 
between Beni, Kasindi and Butembo, not a single CODECO party 
flag was seen flying along the route. In addition, the 
MONUC-Beni Head of Office said Pay-Pay has not visited the 
region recently either. (Note: Kamitatu and his ARC party 
were originally aligned with Pay-Pay. While some form of 
alliance may still exist between them, relations have cooled 
since ARC has joined Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal coalition. 
In any case, alliances will continue to shift in the 
pre-election period. End note.) 
 
¶5. (C) Part of the reason for Nyamwisi and RCD-K/ML's 
reported loss of support in North Kivu may lie in the lack of 
political effectiveness among the party's local officials. 
PolOff met May 5 in Beni with a delegation of RCD-K/ML 
representatives, including the local executive secretary in 
charge of mobilization and an RCD-K/ML candidate for the 
National Assembly. While the delegates were confident of 
their chances and eager to begin participating in an 
electoral campaign, they demonstrated little knowledge or 
understanding of what would be required to win the elections. 
The officials routinely complained they lacked adequate 
financial resources to mount an effective campaign, 
especially against better-financed political adversaries 
(i.e., the PPRD), and one legislative candidate directly 
solicited support from the USG. (Note: Such solicitation, 
however, is not unique to the RCD-K/ML, as politicians from 
nearly every party routinely ask Western officials for some 
form of assistance. End note.) In addition, the officials 
could not articulate a specific party platform or set of 
campaign promises, aside from general declarations of 
"economic reconstruction." 
 
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PPRD SUPPORT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) The apparent weakness of the RCD-K/ML and CODECO in 
the Grand Nord became evident by the surprisingly strong show 
of support for the People's Party for Reconstruction and 
Development (PPRD), the political "home" of President Joseph 
Kabila. Throughout the region, the bright yellow flag of the 
PPRD could be seen almost everywhere. Between Beni, Kasindi 
and Butembo, for example, PolOff counted along the main road 
more than 40 PPRD flags, slightly more than the number of 
RCD-K/ML flags. In the town of Beni, dozens of youths were 
seen walking the streets in brand new t-shirts emblazoned 
with the PPRD logo and a picture of President Kabila. The 
appearance of both the flags and t-shirts can mostly be 
attributed to the visit of PPRD General Secretary Vital 
Kamerhe, who had arrived in Beni May 4 and spoke to a crowd 
of several hundred during his tour of eastern DRC. RCD-K/ML 
officials that PolOff spoke to charged that Kamerhe had paid 
people to show up for the rally with the t-shirts. 
Nonetheless, RCD-K/ML officials said they considered the PPRD 
to be their main political opponent in the coming elections 
-- a sign perhaps that their former dominance is indeed being 
challenged. Members of Beni's civil society, Monsignor 
Emmanuel in Butembo, and the Mayor of Butembo, Zebedee 
Wabunga Sunda, all said the PPRD was well-positioned in the 
region, and could very well win a majority of legislative 
seats in Grand Nord districts. 
 
------------------- 
OTHER MINOR PLAYERS 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Aside from the RCD-K/ML and the PPRD, there are a 
few other, smaller actors vying for political space in the 
Grand Nord. The most prominent of these parties (again, as 
evidenced by the number of flags seen flying in the area) is 
the Convention of Federalists for Christian Democracy 
(COFEDEC), one of the signatories of the Sun City Accords. 
The MONUC-Beni Head of Office said COFEDEC enjoys a 
substantial degree of support among the local population, but 
others PolOff spoke to considered the party to be strongly 
allied with the PPRD. Also present in the Grand Nord are the 
larger Congolese political parties of the Rally for Congolese 
Democracy (RCD, the party of Vice President Azarias Ruberwa) 
and the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC, led by Vice 
President Jean-Pierre Bemba). These two parties, though, 
appear to have a much weaker base in the area, though they 
are expected to win a handful of seats in the National 
Assembly from Grand Nord districts. As noted, nowhere to be 
found in the Grand Nord were flags or signs of support for 
Pay-Pay's CODECO party. Also missing were any flags of 
Kamitatu's ARC, which is presumably a critical ally of 
RCD-K/ML and Nyamwisi's "Forces of Renewal." (Note: The lack 
of ARC flags in the area, though, may have simply been part 
of Kamitatu's agreement with Nyamwisi not to complete 
directly against RCD-K/ML in the Grand Nord. In any case, no 
voters PolOff met spoke of supporting ARC or Kamitatu. End 
note.) 
 
-------------------------------- 
FEAR OF SPOILERS AFTER ELECTIONS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Throughout the Grand Nord, those potential voters 
PolOff encountered expressed a strong desire to participate 
in elections and bring an end to the current transitional 
government. Many officials, including the local coordinators 
of the Independent Electoral Commission in Beni and Butembo, 
pointed to the higher-than-average voter turnout rates during 
the country's December constitutional referendum. Nearly all 
Congolese PolOff met said they planned on voting in the July 
30 and were confident elections would take place. 
 
¶9. (C) Nearly all voters expressed their fears about the 
post-election period, when potential "spoilers" may attempt 
to overturn election results by force of arms. Of particular 
concern was the question of who controlled elements of the 
Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) stationed in the Grand Nord. 
These FARDC troops -- members of the 88th and 89th Brigades 
-- have not yet been through the integration process and are 
suspected to be under the control of certain Congolese 
politicians whose loyalties may not lie with the DRC. One 
persistent rumor shared with PolOff by the local president of 
Butembo's civil society, as well as regional coordinators of 
the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), was that Nyamwisi 
ultimately controlled these FARDC troops, and might use them 
to his advantage after elections if he loses. RCD-K/ML 
officials, however, strongly denied such allegations. This 
suspicion, however, may give voters another reason to shift 
their allegiance to other parties. 
 
¶10. (C) Others in Beni and Butembo said they worried about 
the threats posed by foreign armed groups, particularly the 
Allied Democratic Forces/National Army for the Liberation of 
Uganda (ADF/NALU) and the Democratic Forces for the 
Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The mayors of both Beni and 
Butembo said they were concerned that not enough was being 
done by MONUC and the international community to prevent the 
governments of Uganda or Rwanda from interfering before and 
after the DRC's elections. MONUC officials said such groups 
pose a certain security risk to the region, but added that 
they did not believe they would attempt to prevent elections 
from taking place. 
 
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COMMENT: PPRD POISED FOR A STRONG SHOWING IN THE GRAND NORD 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶11. (C) The PPRD seems to be well-positioned in a region that 
usually does not support outsiders (i.e., those not of Nande 
origin). The Nande community itself is divided over two 
"favorite sons," Nyamwisi and Pay-Pay, providing an 
opportunity for the PPRD (and thus, President Kabila) to make 
inroads there. The depth of support for the PPRD in the Grand 
Nord may not be especially deep, but as the best-financed 
Congolese political party, it stands a chance of winning 
National Assembly seats in these districts. The unofficial 
"flag count" in the Grand Nord would indicated the PPRD has 
worked its way to a position of relative parity (or at least, 
visibility) against the traditional favorite, RCD-K/ML. While 
the PPRD may not possess a political platform any more 
defined than that of RCD-K/ML (that is, no platform at all), 
the relative disorganization on the part of the Nyamwisi's 
party has opened up opportunities for the PPRD. The Nande of 
the Grand Nord are committed to the electoral process and 
will likely turn out in significant numbers to vote on July 
¶30. End comment. 
MEECE