VZCZCXRO9448
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1183/01 1381225
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181225Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2876
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM ER SU
SUBJECT: EASTERN SUDAN: OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: (A) KHARTOUM 780 (B) ASMARA 381 (C)KHARTOUM 952 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affairs C. Hume, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d 
) 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary. On May 16 representatives from the US, UN, 
Canada, Netherlands, Norway and Britain met to discuss the 
situation in East Sudan.  The discussion centered on the next 
steps for peace talks between the Eastern Front and the GNU. 
The Dutch and Norwegian representatives reported that Yassir 
Arman, member of the government's negotiating team, said that 
the plans for Eastern Front-GNU negotiations have stalled as 
the Eritreans appear to be awaiting the outcome of the 
implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA). 
Alternatively there are internal disputes within the National 
Congress Party (NCP) about Eritrea mediating the talks, as 
some NCP members believe Eritrea continues to support the 
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in the East.  The Eastern 
Front leadership has told the UN that the NCP has split the 
Eastern Front along inter-tribal lines.  At the meeting UNMIS 
representatives requested an expanded mandate to monitor the 
increased tensions in the East after the withdrawal of the 
SPLM.  End Summary. 
 
A Slow Down in Talk Preparations 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) According to Yassir Arman, member of the GNU East 
preparatory team, there has been no further planning for 
GNU-Eastern Front negotiation because the Eritreans are 
waiting for the successful implementation of the DPA before 
planning for the negotiations.  The Eritreans want to ensure 
that the DPA is implemented better than the CPA. (Note: In 
February 2006, GSE President Afewerki lectured First Vice 
President Salva Kiir on poor implementation of the CPA.  End 
Note.)  Another theory is that the Eritreans are waiting for 
the complete withdrawal of SPLM troops in the East before 
negotiations and the GNU is stalling the negotiations until 
after the Bashir-Kiir meeting scheduled for the end of May. 
There are also discussions within the NCP about whether 
Eritrea could mediate the Eastern Front-GNU negotiations as 
many suspect the Eritreans of supporting the JEM in Eastern 
Sudan, especially during the May 2 attack on a convoy 80km 
north of Kassala. 
 
Eastern Front Divisions 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In conversations with the leadership of the Eastern 
Front in Asmara, UN Political Officer, Judith Goetz reported 
that the leaders admitted that the National Congress Party 
(NCP) had succeeded in dividing the movement along 
inter-tribal lines and the Eastern Front now had no common 
vision.  Despite the split, the leadership was reportedly 
frustrated that the negotiations had not begun and felt their 
time was wasted in Asmara.  Some of the leaders have returned 
to Hamesh Koreib.  The British reported that other leaders of 
the Eastern Front have approached British NGO Concordis 
International for more training to prepare for the 
negotiations. 
 
UN Needs Increased Mandate in the East 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Some UN representatives are requesting an increased 
mandate for UNMIS to monitor the situation in the East after 
the withdrawal of SPLM troops. The UN fears that once the 
SPLM completely withdraw from the area its original mandate 
in the area will end and the SAF and local militias will have 
free rein to abuse the population, especially those suspected 
of supporting the rebels. 
 
¶5. (C) According to the UN Commander Prem Thapa in Kassala, 
the first SPLM troop withdrawal in April was difficult 
because the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) did not provide the 
requested amount of logistical support for the withdrawal. 
Despite this obstacle the withdrawal continued, but without 
sufficient administrative coordination.  The next phase of 
SPLM withdrawal was scheduled for May 15. However, the 
vehicles are still returning from the South, and the next 
movement was pushed back to the end of May. 
 
¶6. (C) Barbara Manzi, the Head of the UN-Office for the 
Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance in the East, 
(UN-OCHA) said that the East has become a "prison" for UN 
humanitarian aid workers.  National Security is restricting 
workers to the main cities of Kassala, Port Sudan, and 
Showak, citing "insecurity" for their confinement.  According 
to Manzi this confinement is hampering food distribution to 
the estimated 73,000 refugees in need of food assistance. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00001183  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Post believes UNMIS needs an increased 
mandate to monitor the events after the withdrawal of SPLM 
troops from Hamesh Koreib.  The area is a powder keg with SAF 
troops, local militias, the JEM and disgruntled youths.  With 
the JEM disappointed in the DPA, there is an increased 
possibility that the JEM will increase its attacks in the 
East. 
 
HUME 
HUME