VZCZCXRO7640
PP RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #7629/01 1211145
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 011145Z MAY 06 ZUI SECSTATE SERVICE DESK 00070
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6844
INFO RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 0787
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 8610
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6427
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHWSMRC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 ISLAMABAD 007629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KABUL - PLEASE PASS TO CFC-A 
OSD - PLEASE PASS TO CARA NEGRETTE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016 
TAGS: MASS MCAP MOPS PGOV PK PREL
SUBJECT: POLITICAL AND SECURITY ASSISTANCE SCENESETTER FOR 
DEFENSE CONSULTATIVE GROUP MEETINGS 
 
ISLAMABAD 00007629  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter W. Bodde, 
Reasons 1.4  (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (U) In anticipation of the U.S.-Pakistan Defense 
Consultative Group (DCG) meetings in Washingont May 1-5, 
Embassy Islamabad offers the following snapshots of political 
and security assistance developments in Pakistan. 
 
U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Partnership 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (S) During his March visit to Pakistan, President Bush 
launched a U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Partnership.  This 
initiative has been institutionalized in the framework of a 
Strategic Dialogue that incorporates discussions on: economic 
growth and prosperity, energy cooperation, peace and 
security, social sector development, science and technology, 
democracy, and non-proliferation.  In the wake of President 
Bush's visit, and with the prospect of a U.S.-India civil 
nuclear deal, Pakistan's political class has been wracked by 
a bout of insecurity and "me-tooism." Even President 
Musharraf has complained privately that there is now a public 
perception that the U.S. is distancing itself from him.  The 
inaugural meeting of the Strategic Dialogue, which were held 
in Washington from April 26-27, should help reassure Pakistan 
of the breadth and depth of our long-term commitment. 
 
The Cartoon Controversy 
----------------------- 
¶3. (C) In February and early March, tens of thousands of 
Pakistani demonstrators took to the streets to protest the 
publication of the Danish cartoons.  Early rallies in Lahore 
and Peshawar were particularly destructive, with rampant 
looting and vandalism in parts of downtown Lahore and 
Peshawar and six protesters killed.  Although demonstrations 
followed across Pakistan, enhanced security measures by the 
Government of Pakistan (GOP) prevented any repetition of the 
unrestrained violence seen in February.  Over time, the 
protests took on a greater political tone, as opportunistic 
politicians sought to embarrass the Musharraf government. 
The protests have died out but it took Federal government 
intervention to quell them.  The DCG discussions present an 
opportunity to remind the Pakistani people that the United 
States understands the sentiments of the Muslim community and 
that, although we strongly support freedom of expression, we 
also believe the press should behave responsibly. 
 
Earthquake Relief 
----------------- 
¶4. (U) The October 8 earthquake (7.6 on the Richter scale) in 
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West Frontier 
Province (NWFP) was the strongest to hit the region in over a 
century.  The GOP estimates that more than 73,000 died in the 
quake, with more than 69,000 wounded and some 2.8 million 
left homeless.  The United States had been Pakistan's most 
visible international partner in delivering emergency relief 
during the sixth month effort. 
 
¶5. (U) The U.S. military, which had been on the ground since 
October 10, concluded its relief operations on March 31.  At 
the peak of initial relief efforts, more than 1,200 personnel 
and 24 helicopters provided vital transport, logistics, and 
medical and engineering support in affected areas.  As we 
wrapped up our military relief operations, we donated more 
than USD 2.5 million in medical equipment to Pakistani 
counterparts.  Our Seabee unit also left behind 25 pieces of 
heavy construction equipment as a donation to Pakistani 
military engineers. 
 
¶6. (U) The U.S. military and USAID collaborated closely on 
the civilian relief effort, with the military providing 
logistics and USAID working with NGOs to deliver supplies and 
services to camps and villages.  USAID provided more than USD 
60 million in additional humanitarian assistance through NGOs 
and the United Nations, including the donation of blankets, 
tents, plastic sheeting and shelter kits to the affected 
population.  In March, USAID made its first reconstruction 
grant of USD 15 million to rebuild schools and hospitals.  In 
total, the USG has pledged USD 510 million for earthquake 
relief and reconstruction efforts.  The U.S. private sector 
is also engaged.  A consortium of CEOs (GE, Pfizer, 
Citigroup, Xerox and UPS) is spearheading the South Asia 
Earthquake Relief Fund, which has already attracted 
approximately USD 24 million.  Independent estimates place 
 
ISLAMABAD 00007629  002.3 OF 005 
 
 
total U.S. private donations at over USD 130 million. 
 
¶7. (C) Our prompt and generous response sparked a perceptible 
shift in Pakistani attitudes about the United States that has 
improved bilateral relations at official levels.  The 
cooperation between U.S. and Pakistani military personnel has 
palpably reduced suspicions at the middle and upper ranks of 
the Pakistani army.  Throughout the draw-down of our military 
presence, we emphasized that our transition parallels the 
shift from emergency relief toward the civilian 
reconstruction phase of the recovery effort.  The Pakistanis, 
who have long been convinced that we are fair-weather 
friends, are beginning to understand that we are committed to 
a long-term relationship. 
 
Democratization 
--------------- 
¶8. (C) President Musharraf has committed - publicly and 
privately - to move Pakistan toward a civilian-led democracy 
by the next national elections, which must be held by 2007. 
The government must address significant organizational issues 
before the 2007 national elections, but it has taken an 
important initial step with the March appointment of a 
permanent, independent election commissioner acceptable to 
all mainstream parties.  At the operational level, USAID 
supports democratization efforts with programs to promote 
institutional development of the courts, the legislatures, 
and the political parties. 
 
¶9. (C) Press commentary following A/S Boucher's April 4-6 
visit to Pakistan gave considerable attention to his public 
remarks, including his observation that the United States 
believes in civilian leadership of the military.  GOP 
officials have voiced concern that this is creating the false 
impression that the U.S. is distancing itself from teh 
President.  In any public or private remarks, DCG 
participants will want to underscore our strong relationship 
with President Musharraf and his goverment, noting our 
appreciation for his contributions in the war on terror, his 
efforts to improve relations with India and the steps he has 
taken to advance democracy in Pakistan, such as freedom of 
the press and the appointment of an Independent Election 
Commissioner. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
¶10. (S) The roller-coaster relationship between Afghanistan 
and Pakistan continues to suffer from mutual suspicion and 
recrimination, with Afghans concerned about cross-border 
infiltration and Pakistan worried that India is using its 
assets in Afghanistan to destabilize Balochistan.  President 
Musharraf, his government and military leaders recognize 
Pakistan must support the Karzai government as it attempts to 
solidify its control over the country.  To that end, the 
Government is committed to cooperating on operational 
security matters with the Afghan government and coalition 
forces through regular Tripartite Commission meetings.  That 
said, the two leaders have difficulty restraining themselves 
from engaging in destructive public rhetoric in which each 
blames the other for not doing enough to effectively 
prosecute the battle against their common enemies in the 
tribal areas along the border. 
 
India and Kashmir 
----------------- 
¶11. (S) President Musharraf and his senior advisors say that 
they have made a strategic decision to end the Kashmiri 
militancy; even Indian officials acknowledge the level of 
violence and cross-border infiltration has declined (though 
some New Delhi officials attribute this to Indian security 
measures).  President Musharraf believes the GOP's ability to 
control Kashmiri militants will be greatly enhanced if there 
is measurable progress with India on Kashmir.  He has 
specifically pushed for a withdrawal of Indian forces from 
key population centers in Indian-administered Kashmir (a 
demand viewed with great skepticism in New Delhi).  President 
Musharraf has privately signaled flexibility on the final 
status of Kashmir, but in public remains steadfast in 
rejecting the Line of Control (LOC) as a permanent 
international boundary.  Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh 
has said that New Delhi is not afraid to discuss pragmatic 
solutions to make the LOC less-relevant in people's lives, 
but has also chided Pakistan for holding normalization of 
 
ISLAMABAD 00007629  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
bilateral relations hostage to a final resolution of the 
Kashmir dispute.  Limited measures following the October 
earthquake to facilitate cross-LOC travel and communication 
have the potential to change the dynamic in Kashmir and may 
accelerate internal pressure on Islamabad and New Delhi to 
create additional space for interaction between Kashmiris in 
India and Pakistan. 
 
¶12. (C) While there has been little progress on core issues 
relating to Kashmir, senior Indian and Pakistani officials 
meet regularly through the Composite Dialogue process, which 
has produced some confidence-building measures, including a 
pre-notification agreement for ballistic missile launches and 
the opening of five bus and two train routes between the two 
countries.  India and Pakistan have also, after 17 years, 
revived the Joint Commission to provide a forum for 
discussions on technical issues such as science and 
technology, information technology, telecommunications, and 
tourism.  The Pakistani Federal Investigation Agency and the 
Indian Central Bureau of Investigation recently initiated 
discussions aimed at promoting cross-border cooperation on 
human trafficking, currency counterfeiting, and illegal 
immigration. 
 
¶13. (S) India has long resisted the involvement of third 
parties in settling the Kashmir issue.  Senior Pakistani 
leaders understand that any move toward a direct mediating 
role by the U.S. would be counterproductive, and President 
Musharraf was pleased by President Bush's statement calling 
for a peaceful resolution of the dispute on terms acceptable 
to Pakistan, India, and the people of Kashmir.  As many 
Pakistani civilian and military officials share the public's 
perception that the U.S. should lean on New Delhi to 
facilitate a settlement, DCG participants should be prepared 
to respond to calls for greater USG involvement by citing 
President Bush's even-handed remarks. 
 
Global War on Terrorism 
----------------------- 
¶14. (S) Pakistan deserves commendation for standing with us 
in the global war on terror, including its efforts to deny al 
Qa'ida and other extremist elements safe haven in Pakistan's 
untamed tribal areas along the Afghan border. Following the 
GOP's decision to extend central government control into the 
FATA (historically a "no go" region for government forces), 
we have regularly encouraged Pakistani security forces to 
stay the course in the face of armed resistance.  Since 
December 2005, the security situation in Waziristan has 
deteriorated, forcing the GOP to rethink its strategy. 
President Musharraf has articulated a three-pronged approach 
comprising political initiatives, economic development and 
military operations that are faster, leaner and more targeted 
than in the past.  The Pakistan military has suffered over 
1,000 casualties in the FATA, with particularly heavy 
fighting during the first week of March, when militants 
occupied a key town in North Waziristan.  We have offered to 
assist Pakistan's economic development efforts in the FATA 
and to provide training and rapid strike capabilities as it 
realigns its military tactics. 
 
¶15. (C) In the aftermath of the July 7 London bombings, 
President Musharraf cracked down on terrorist/extremist 
organizations in Pakistan to much public fanfare.  We are 
still assessing whether the President has the will to hold 
the line against Pakistan's extremist elements for the long 
run.  Initial law enforcement actions targeted the usual 
suspects--conservative clerics and Islamist 
politicians--prompting a strong popular backlash, with 
conservatives decrying the focus on Islamists.  Ultimately, 
the government released most detainees and watered down 
regulations intended to provide transparency on madrassa 
operations.  We have repeatedly pressed senior GOP officials 
to act decisively against the operational leaders of key 
terrorist and extremist groups, including those involved in 
earthquake relief efforts in northern Pakistan.  We have also 
encouraged GOP officials to take action against madrassas 
that support, recruit for, or shelter these organizations. 
 
Balochistan 
----------- 
¶16. (S) Pakistani leaders are also struggling to cope with an 
insurgency in the resource-rich province of Balochistan, as 
local Baloch tribesmen seek to redress historic grievances 
 
ISLAMABAD 00007629  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
against Pakistan and seize a greater share of their 
provincial patrimony.  President Musharraf has swung back and 
forth between civilian advisors who are counseling a 
negotiated settlement, and military advisors who view the 
insurgency as an Indian-sponsored threat to national unity 
that must be suppressed. At the moment, the pendulum appears 
ready to swing toward the military option. This has clear 
implications for the military's ability to pursue shared 
U.S.-Pakistan objectives in the FATA and in the war on 
terror.  Pakistani security forces are already over-stretched 
along the Afghan border, in North and South Waziristan, and 
in managing periodic domestic civil unrest such as the 
cartoon controversy and sectarian tension.  An escalation in 
armed conflict in Balochistan would create an inauspicious 
political environment in the run-up to national elections 
next year. 
 
Pakistan Air Force Command Change 
--------------------------------- 
¶17. (U) Recently, the Pakistan Air Force has undergone a 
leadership change with the appointment of Chief Air Marshal 
Tanvir to the Chief of the Air Staff position and Air Marshal 
Shahid to the directors Chief of the Air Staff or Operations 
position. 
 
Security Assistance:  F-16s, C-130s and Joint Exercises 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶18.  (C) The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is obsessed with F-16s. 
 The Ministry of Defense for Production (MODP) 
submitted restated Letters of Requests for new F-16s (18 with 
an option for an additional 18 aircraft), Mid-Life 
Upgrade of Pakistan's existing fleet of 34 F-16 aircraft, 26 
Used Block 15 F-16s (preferably Peace Gate III/IV 
aircraft), and a weapons package.  The requested 
configuration of the new F-16's is: JDAM, AMRAAM, LINK-16, 
and APG-68(V) 9 radar.  The new-buy program, MLU, and weapons 
packages are fairly well understood; for the used 
aircraft LOR, however, there is no DOD position on the 
availability of used Block 15 F-16s (especially former 
Peace Gate aircraft) for EDA transfers.  The request for used 
F-16 represents the GOP's desire to acquire aircraft 
at an extreme discount.  The GOP remains fixated on the 26 
aircraft produced under the Peace Gate III/IV programs, 
but not delivered to Pakistan due to sanctions (even though a 
formal settlement was reached with the GOP).  These 
26 aircraft are currently in the Air Force (test and 
evaluation) and Navy (aggressor aircraft) active duty fleet 
and any transfer would require replacements to fill assigned 
missions. 
 
¶19.  (C) The Pakistan Air Force recently concluded a 
financing deal completing the Swedish Erie-Eye Airborne 
Early Warning (AEW) aircraft.  While the PAF submitted 
requests for U.S. AEW platforms, the requests never focused 
on releasable weapon systems (Wedgetail) or focused on AEW 
systems the PAF previously rejected (E2C).  The 
Pakistan Navy is procuring P-3B AEW aircraft. 
 
¶20. (C)  The C-130 program, worth USD 75 million, will 
deliver 6 refurbished C-130 aircraft to the GOP, 
ultimately increasing Pakistan's C-130 fleet to 11 aircraft. 
Both Air Chief Marshal Tanvir and Air Marshal 
Shahid are satisfied with the direct engagement of senior USG 
officials with Lockheed Martin corporate 
officals regarding the continued failure to meet interim and 
delivery milestones.  Recently, Lockheed Martin met 
with SAF/IA to explain how it will deliver the remaining four 
aircraft by the end of December 2006.  As background, 
Prime Minister Aziz expressed concerns about the program to 
the Secretary of Defense in December, which were 
underscored by the former Chief of the Pakistan Air Force, 
Chief Air Marshal Sadat, at the Singapore Air Show. 
The program is approximately one year behind schedule.  Until 
recently, Lockheed Martin failed to commit sufficient 
resources to meet restated delivery commitments.  While 
Lockheed Martin is hitting interim milestones, both the PAF 
and the USG and are taking a wait-and-see attitude.  The 
second C-130 was delivered to the Government of Pakistan 
mid-April 2006. 
 
¶21. (SBU) Joint Exercise Falcon Talon was considered a huge 
success by the Pakistan Air Force.  This represented the 
 
ISLAMABAD 00007629  005.3 OF 005 
 
 
first USAF and PAF exercise held in Pakistan.  The exercise 
consisted of 6 USAF F-16 aircraft and 8 F-16, 16 Mirage, 
and 6 F-7 aircraft.  The Pakistan Air Force has a significant 
military to military engagement program.  The 
Pakistan Air Staff was extremely pleased with the recent 
Combat Search and Rescue and F-16 engagements and 
is looking forward to the upcoming Flight Safety, Tactical 
Airspace Management/Air Traffic Control, Electronic 
Intelligence, and T-37 engagements. 
 
 
BODDE 
BODDE