VZCZCXRO8851
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHHK #2210/01 1460946
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 260946Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6932
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM 
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2031 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: WATCH THIS SPACE: ANSON CHAN AND THE ELECTION OF 
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE 
 
 
Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary:  On May 25, in her first public speech in 
more than three months, former Chief Secretary Anson Chan 
told a media awards dinner that at this time she was "not 
willing to disclose" her future plans regarding the 2007 
Chief Executive election; instead, she instructed the press 
to "just watch this space."  At the same event, Chan also 
said her desired headline for July 1, 2007, which will be the 
tenth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC, would 
be "that there will be a timetable for democratic reform." 
These comments have done nothing to ease speculation in Hong 
Kong political circles about Chan's possible plans.  On May 
26, two knowledgeable contacts provided different analyses of 
Chan's recent actions.  First, independent Legco member 
Albert Chan told poloff that he was certain Anson Chan would 
not contest the 2007 election and was just using public 
interest in that possibility to express her "anger and 
frustration" about the administration of current Chief 
Executive Donald Tsang.  According to Hong Kong Baptist 
University professor Michael DeGolyer, however, Chan might be 
awaiting a "draft" by the pan-democrats, once they can 
confirm that they will gain at least one hundred nominations 
in the Election Committee.  On May 16, Anson Chan had told 
the Consul General that, while she had said publicly that she 
did not intend to run for Chief Executive, she nevertheless 
believed that a challenger could "defeat" Tsang in the public 
opinion polls, despite losing in the Election Committee, 
which would return Tsang to office but publicly embarrass 
both him and Beijing.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On Thursday, May 25, former Hong Kong Chief 
Secretary Anson Chan addressed the "Society of Publishers in 
 
SIPDIS 
Asia" awards dinner, her first public address since the death 
of her mother on February 20.  Since then, other than a May 4 
exclusive interview in "Next Magazine," during which she 
stressed that she had no intention of contesting the 2007 
Chief Executive race, Chan generally has eschewed public 
comment on political issues.  Her silence, however, has not 
prevented the Hong Kong public and press from speculating 
about whether she might contest the election, and if so what 
effect her candidacy would have on the contest. 
 
"Just Watch This Space" 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following her keynote speech to the publishers about 
the importance of freedom of information, Chan was asked what 
headline she would want to see on July 1, 2007, which will be 
the tenth anniversary of Hong Kong's reversion to the PRC. 
In response, she said it should be "that there will be a 
timetable for democratic reform."  On the issue of Article 23 
of the Basic Law, which requires Hong Kong to enact national 
security legislation, Chan said the HKSAR had a 
constitutional obligation to do so and hoped that the 
government's next attempt would be more sensitive to the 
views of the community.  Otherwise, however, she refused to 
provide any glint of information on her political future. 
Chan said she had been retired for five years, was now a 
"private citizen," and as such was "not willing to disclose 
at this stage" her future plans.  Instead, she advised the 
press to "just watch this space." 
 
 
Keep Them Guessing 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) During a May 16 private meeting, Anson Chan told the 
Consul General that she generally had been refusing to speak 
to the press about politics and her political future, and had 
said publicly that she did not intend to run for Chief 
Executive.  She said officials in Beijing sometimes contacted 
her to ask her intentions, but she preferred to "keep them 
guessing."  That said, however, Chan believed a challenger 
could run against and possibly defeat Donald Tsang in the 
public opinion polls, rather than the Election Committee. 
Such a development would be "very embarrassing" to both Tsang 
and Beijing.  Chan also believed that Beijing feared the 
Election Committee vote because, unlike the nomination 
process, it is by sec-ret ballot. 
 
Anger and Frustration 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Reflecting the public's current uncertainty regarding 
Chan's intentions, on May 26 two highly knowledgeable 
observers of Hong Kong politics gave poloff contrasting 
analyses of Chan's remarks.  First, independent democratic 
 
HONG KONG 00002210  002 OF 002 
 
 
member of the Legislative Council Albert Chan, a founder of 
Hong Kong's Democratic Party who has known Anson Chan for 
decades, said he was "certain" that she would not run for 
Chief Executive.  He described her as a "very calculating" 
person who was not interested in becoming a "martyr" and was 
simply using attention on her possible candidacy to express 
"anger and frustration" about Donald Tsang.  More generally, 
Albert Chan opined that any pan-democratic candidate would be 
unable to win the one hundred Election Committee votes 
required for nomination, because the people of Hong Kong were 
pragmatic and realized that the Chief Executive could not run 
Hong Kong without support from Beijing, which only Donald 
would enjoy.  This, he said, was a "reality we have to face." 
 
Awaiting a Draft 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (C) On the same day, however, Hong Kong Baptist University 
Professor and "Hong Kong Transition Project" Director Michael 
DeGolyer observed to poloff that Chan keeps denying, "more 
and more coyly," that she would contest the election.  He 
believed, however, that she might be awaiting a "draft," 
which he felt she probably would get, once the Democratic 
Party and the Civic Party were able to assure her that she 
would receive the one hundred Election Committee nominations 
necessary for a candidacy.  In the meantime, DeGolyer 
suggested that any missteps by Tsang and/or negative economic 
news would benefit a potential challenger, such as Chan. 
DeGolyer also described Chan as an "extremely politically 
astute" person whose grasp of Hong Kong public opinion was 
unsurpassed. 
Cunningham