VZCZCXRO2220
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHHO #0228/01 1510218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 310218Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1445
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 0479
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHHO/AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO 1824

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000228 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, EMBASSY MEXICO FOR CMMA, POL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MX
SUBJECT: MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS VISIT SONORA 
 
REF: A) HERMOSILLO 0082; B) HERMOSILLO 0036 
 
HERMOSILLO 00000228  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  All three major presidential candidates 
campaigned in Sonora over the last two weeks, with none of them 
making a big splash.  The calculated distancing of Governor 
Bours from Robert Madrazo was obvious.  However, the Governor 
still studiously avoided an irrevocable split with Madrazo and 
the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) as  -- apparently for 
his own long-term ambitions -- he strives to demonstrate that he 
can score gains in Sonora for the PRI "reformist" wing. 
National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon appeared 
to be holding his own in Sonora despite factional fighting in 
the state and local party organizations.  Andres Manuel Lopez 
Obrador (AMLO) of Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) generated 
excitement in rural southern Sonora, but local candidates from 
the PRD and its Workers Party (PT) ally suddenly have been 
disqualified en masse from running.  End Summary. 
 
PRI -- MADRAZO'S SONORA VISIT GOES FROM BAD TO WORSE 
 
¶2. (SBU) PRI presidential hopeful Roberto Madrazo returned to 
Sonora on May 17, flying in to Hermosillo, and visiting Nogales 
and San Luis Rio Colorado for campaign events.  Sonora Governor 
Eduardo Bours, the state's top PRI politician, pointedly ignored 
his party's national candidate again (Ref A).  Bours did not 
greet Madrazo at the airport or attend a meeting of PRI 
supporters in Hermosillo's Expo Forum, which only attracted 400 
participants. 
 
¶3. (U) The PRI Sonora organization did arrange a rally for 
Madrazo in Nogales, but it too reportedly drew only 500, and 
ended with Carlos Daniel Fernandez Guevara, the head of PRI 
Sonora, and several local candidates walking out.  They were 
reacting to the presence of Samuel Moreno Teran, a long-time 
PRIista who is running to become a federal deputy on the 
PRI-PVEM (Green Ecologist) alliance endorsed by the national PRI 
(but not the local PRI organizaton).  Moreno and other PRI-PVEM 
candidates had not been invited because of their differences 
with the Governor and PRI Sonora, and the situation was 
exacerbated when Madrazo gave Moreno the microphone.  By the 
time Madrazo reached San Luis Rio Colorado, no PRI Sonora 
candidates were accompanying him. 
 
TOUGH POLITICS IN SONORA 
 
¶4. (U) Governor Bours and the PRI Sonora organization -- despite 
the obvious snubs -- were careful not to openly declare a break 
with the national candidate.  Bours publicly blamed the 
resulting "disrespect" to Madrazo on maneuvering by his rival, 
former governor Manlio Beltrones, who (he said) had put the 
PRI-PVEM candidates up to their disruptive appearance at the 
rally.  Bours suggested that Moreno and Guadalupe Garcia 
Benitez, who are sitting PRI local deputies in the Sonora 
Congress, should be expelled from PRI for their PVEM 
affiliations. 
 
¶5. (U) On May 19, in an incident that some see as a form of 
political revenge, the Sonora judicial police (PJE) detained 
Reynaldo Castillo Lopez, an active Madrazo political operative 
in Sonora and leader of the Madrazo Foundation.  The arrest was 
made on the basis of a 1997 apprehension order for alleged 
aggravated robbery of a wholesale automotive parts factory. 
Castillo Lopez was released without being charged the next day. 
He claimed to have been mistreated in prison and declared that 
he would not be intimidated. 
 
WHAT THE GOVERNOR MIGHT HAVE IN MIND 
 
¶6. (SBU) On May 15, Enrique Palafox (protect), the 
newly-appointed Sonora state Secretary of Government, told the 
PO that Governor Bours would continue to distinguish himself 
from Madrazo, "a PRI dinosaur", without disavowing him 
completely.  He said that Bours wanted to maintain control of 
local PRI candidate selection and, as a member of the PRI 
"reformist" wing, had very different ideas from Madrazo about 
directions the party and Mexico should take. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Deeper into the conversation, Palafox said that the 
intra-party politicking for the July 2 elections represented a 
gamble for a possible run by Bours at the Mexican presidency in 
¶2012.  That hope was premised, he said, on a strong showing by 
PRI in the Sonora elections, especially victories in the 
Hermosillo municipal race and other city halls contests.  PAN 
mayors currently hold office in Hermosillo and Obregon, the two 
largest cities in Sonora.  Palafox said that PRI was closer in 
the polls now than at a comparable point before the last 
elections and had good chances for wins in both races. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The local PAN party's open bickering on its Hermosillo 
mayoral candidate has fueled this PRI optimism.  PAN has 
 
HERMOSILLO 00000228  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
confused voters with the rise, seeming anointment and then 
casting off of several Hermosillo mayoral contenders (prominent 
businessmen Javier Gandara Magana and Edmundo Briseno) before 
settling on a final candidate:  Rodolfo Flores Hurtado, former 
city treasurer.  On May 28, Flores Hurtado won the unanimous 
backing for the nomination of a PAN convention which was, 
however, boycotted by representatives of the PAN party's 
national executive committee.  His candidacy is seen as 
reflecting the continuing influence of incumbent mayor Maria 
Dolores del Rio.  Flores Hurtado becomes the clear PAN candidate 
relatively late in the campaign and will need to heal some of 
the bruising inflicted on other PAN factions to stay ahead of 
PRI candidate for Hermosillo mayor, Ernesto Gandara Camou. 
 
PRD -- AMLO WELCOME IN THE SOUTH, BUT PRD SONORA IN SHAMBLES 
 
¶9. (U) PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador 
(AMLO) traveled north from Sinaloa to return to Sonora on May 
18, focusing this campaign swing on the southern, rural part of 
the state where PRD has its greatest strength (Ref B).  Southern 
Sonora has a history of agrarian reform in which larger holdings 
were broken up and distributed to small farmers, and AMLO's 
populism resonates well there.  He reportedly was warmly greeted 
in rallies in Huatabampo, Navajoa, Obregon and Guaymas, after 
having attracted larger crowds in Sinaloa, a highly agricultural 
state.  He flew onward out of Hermosillo the evening of May 18, 
but met only with -- and briefly -- local PRD officials. 
 
¶10. (U) The PRD-PT coalition in Sonora is reeling from the May 
20-21 unprecedented disqualification from the elections of 43 of 
its candidates by the Sonora's State Electoral Council (CEE). 
Twenty-one district candidates for the state congress, 3 
plurinominal candidates, and 10 mayoral candidates were barred 
from registration because of alleged "negligence" and 
irregularities ranging from lack of documents required under the 
electoral code, failure to respect parity of the sexes in party 
committees and candidacies, and non-compliance with residency 
requirements.  PRD lawyers are appealing and Governor Bours 
himself has said publicly that he will look into the matter. 
 
PAN - CALDERON IN QUICK CAMPAIGN STOP 
 
¶11. (U) PAN presidential candidate Felipe Calderon Hinojosa - 
who has not yet campaigned heavily in Sonora -- also visited the 
state's southern region on May 25, drawing (reportedly) over 
4000 supporters to a rally in Navajoa, and then meeting with 
smaller groups in Obregon.  He reportedly emphasized that he 
would support social programs that benefit the most vulnerable 
groups in Mexican society, but needs to have the support of the 
federal Congress to do so.  Word has also leaked that Governor 
Bours met with Calderon for coffee in Obregon, a significant 
courtesy in light of the Governor's failure to find time for 
Madrazo. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment:  While the presidential candidates are 
visiting Sonora with greater frequency, the campaign locally 
does not yet seem very intense.  More posters and, on most days, 
most local media coverage, is devoted to local candidates and 
local intra-party feuds than the national race.  Nevertheless, 
at this point PAN candidate Calderon appears out ahead in Sonora 
of a largely ignored Madrazo and Lopez Obrador, whose campaign 
is under-organized (and undermined).  The main story remains the 
role of Governor Bours and his bid to demonstrate mastery in the 
July elections of Sonora politics in a bid for greater national 
prominence.  End Comment. 
CLARKE