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RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0220
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0234
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 0305
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0106
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 1807

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000213 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, IO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/5/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC MARR TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR UPDATE: ARMY RETURNS TO BARRACKS AS GOET URGES 
CALM 
 
REF: A) DILI 184 B) DILI 194 
 
DILI 00000213  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political Officer, Embassy 
Dili, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Embassy's current assessment is that the 
potential for politically motivated violence in East Timor in 
the near future appears to be de-escalating.  Although the 
likelihood of imminent violence appears low, the ongoing 
political and constitutional crisis caused by Prime Minister 
Mari Alkatiri's extra-constitutional decision to use the armed 
forces (F-FDTL) to quell the April 28 riot --- and by the 
widespread belief that F-FDTL members then committed serious 
human rights violations --- continues. Developments on the 
ground, including the decision of the Government to order almost 
all F-FDTL members to withdraw from Dili and several public 
statements by President Xanana Gusmao, point toward 
stabilization.  Two groups whose flight to the mountains outside 
Dili have been the focus of some recent rumors of imminent 
violence --- a group of dismissed soldiers whose demonstrations 
led up to the riot (the "petitioners") and the group of military 
police (MPs) and members of the national police service (PNTL) 
who left their ranks and are gathered at an unknown location --- 
appear to have no violent intentions.  Rather, these two groups 
appear to have fled primarily out of fear that their lives were 
in danger, and perhaps also in order to make a political 
statement.  However, the nature of the ongoing political 
situation remains fluid and the potential remains for another 
security crisis if the respective actors do not stay their 
current course.  Meanwhile, the Embassy is concerned that a 
humanitarian crisis may be brewing as thousands of internally 
displaced people remain in various locations around Dili and in 
outlying districts.  End summary. 
 
National leaders working to stabilize the situation 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (U) Developments on the ground currently indicate a trend 
toward stabilization and the restoration of calm.  There have 
been no reported incidents of violence in Dili, other than what 
appear to be a few routine non-political crimes, for the last 
five days.  Although there is still widespread fear and distrust 
of the Government (and particularly of the F-FDTL) among the 
population of Dili, statements and actions by Government leaders 
during the last 24 hours are addressing these fears.  In 
particular, Government officials announced yesterday the final 
withdrawal of all F-FDTL soldiers from the posts that they had 
been occupying around Dili's perimeter.  In addition, they 
announced that all special police units were ordered to return 
immediately to their respective headquarters and to turn in 
their long-barreled firearms.  According to the Government's 
announcements --- and to President Gusmao in a conversation with 
Ambassador Rees, reported Septel --- all law enforcement 
activities in Dili beginning at 4 p.m. yesterday were to have 
been by "community police" on foot patrols and by a few joint 
vehicle patrols by PNTL members augmented by the remaining 15 
members of the military police.  The Embassy has confirmed that 
all the F-FDTL posts around Dili's perimeter have been 
withdrawn.  Although Embassy has received two eyewitness reports 
of trucks full of F-FDTL members in Dili today, these may have 
been transporting F-FDTL members to their barracks or 
headquarters.  Embassy staff also witnessed at least one vehicle 
transporting a officers of a special police unit, with their 
long-barreled firearms, out of Dili in the direction of the 
unit's headquarters.  The presence of community policing patrols 
has also been confirmed. (Comment: The community policing is 
also an important step because of worries regarding the 
potential for wide-scale looting in the neighborhoods that have 
been mostly abandoned by their residents.  End comment.) 
 
¶3. (U) Government leaders have been making a concerted effort 
over the last two days to show a united front and to attempt to 
direct developments back toward the political process.  Most 
notable have been joint appearances by President Xanana Gusmao 
and Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri --- whom many rumors and some 
intelligence reports have regarded as possible antagonists in an 
armed struggle for control of the country --- both yesterday and 
today.  Yesterday, in a joint appearance on national television, 
they announced the revised security posture described in 
 
DILI 00000213  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
previous paragraph.  The President and Prime Minister also 
jointly announced the inauguration of a commission to 
investigate the complaints of the dismissed soldiers and called 
for calm and a return to normal.  Today, Gusmao and Alkatiri 
together called print and broadcast journalists for an 
interactive off-the-record discussion on the current situation. 
An Embassy staff member who was able to observe the session, 
although it was closed to the public, noted that both men 
appeared relaxed and friendly with each other, in marked 
contrast to their separate and cheerless appearances a few days 
ago.  Emphasizing that they do not want to tell the news media 
what to report, they appealed to them to help calm the panic 
that has seized so much of the population.  They assured the 
journalists that security was under control, and they asked them 
to remember their responsibility to the public and to refrain 
from reporting rumors and to make an effort to report the 
positive things that are happening. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Two separate commissions have now been established to 
address the major outstanding issues of this crisis.  The first, 
mentioned above, is the Commission of Investigation, charged 
with with looking into the complaints raised by the dismissed 
soldiers in their original petitions.  (Reftel A)  This 
commission was sworn in by the Prime Minister today at a brief 
ceremony attended by the Dili diplomatic corps and the news 
media.  In addition, a Committee for the Verification of Details 
About Dead and Injured was established early this week to look 
into allegations of 60 as-yet-unreported killings during the 
F-FDTL operations last weekend.  The committee includes 
government, police, and Red Cross representatives.  The majority 
of the members of both Commissions are highly regarded and are 
likely to engage in a serious search for the truth.  Reliable 
Embassy sources have told Emboffs that both Alkatiri and Gusmao 
are pressuring both investigative bodies to begin their work 
immediately. 
 
¶5. (C) Despite these encouraging actions by the Government, one 
reliable source reports that Prime Minister Alkatiri was 
extremely close yesterday to authorizing the delivery of an 
ultimatum to a group of petitioners who are thought to have 
gathered in Ermera.  The ultimatum would have demanded that they 
surrender within hours or that security forces would be sent to 
seize them.  It is likely that such an action would have been 
conducted by the F-FDTL, not the police.  Such a move would in 
all likelihood have resulted in a return to violence, with some 
elements of society coalescing around the Government and F-FDTL 
and others around the ex-FDTL petitioners.  According to the 
Embassy source, who obtained the information from participants 
in the meeting, the deliberations changed course after phone 
calls by UN Special Representative for the Secretary General 
(SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa, to both the Prime Minister and the 
President in which Hasegawa emphasized to both officials the 
importance of avoiding any further confrontations.  (Note: It is 
our understanding that President Gusmao was not in this meeting 
and, like Hasegawa, has urged Alkatiri and other GOET leaders to 
avoid confrontation.) 
 
Dismissed soldiers and defecting police not a present threat 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Many rumors over the last two days --- as well as much 
of the concern among Alkatiri and members of his Government --- 
have focused on two groups that have fled Dili during the last 
week and are believed to be hiding in outlying mountainous 
districts.  The first group consists of an unknown number of 
ex-FDTL petitioners, including the leader of the group, 
Lieutenant Gastao Salsinha, who after the April 28 riot either 
dispersed in various places outside Dili and/or coalesced in one 
location, generally thought to be near Ermera.   According to 
some rumors and to statements by some GOET officials, Salsinha 
and his group plan either to wage guerrilla warfare in the 
mountains or to mount an attack on Dili.  It appears 
increasingly clear, however, that Salsinha and his group fled to 
the mountains primarily because they were afraid of being killed 
by their ex-colleagues who remain on active duty in F-FDTL.  In 
a telephone conversation with an Embassy staff member yesterday, 
Salsinha relayed that he trusts neither the F-FDTL nor the 
Government and remains convinced that several dozen of his 
colleagues were killed by F-FDTL in Tasitolu on Friday night 
 
DILI 00000213  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
and/or Saturday morning (April 28-29).  He stated that he has no 
intention to initiate any additional conflict, but that his 
group would do "whatever is necessary" to defend themselves if 
the F-FDTL were to go after them.  During the conversation with 
media referenced in paragraph 3 and in a conversation with 
Ambassador Rees (see Septel), President Gusmao reported that he 
had also spoken by telephone with Lieutenant Salsinha and had 
received a similar statement.  Gusmao said  he then told 
Salsinha that he should stay quietly where he is until the 
situation returns to normal and then they could address how to 
bring him out of hiding.  President Gusmao also assured him that 
the commission established to investigate the dismissed soldiers 
complaints would be fair and credible.  According to the 
President's chief of staff, Salsinha and the other petitioners 
are now drawing up a list of demands or conditions for their 
return to Dili. 
 
¶7. (C) The Embassy has also confirmed that a group of 
approximately 19 members of the F-FDTL military police unit 
(MPs), together with several PNTL members, departed their posts 
on Wednesday night and have gathered in a nearby district.  Our 
information based on direct contact with members of the group 
and with Australian Embassy sources is that this group's 
intention was to send a message to the Government that they 
disagreed with F-FDTL involvement in quelling the riot --- both 
with the decision to call in the armed forces and with the 
subsequent abusive manner in which F-FDTL behaved --- and that 
the Government would not have the support of all security forces 
if it chose to confront the dismissed soldiers with force.  The 
group is reported to be particularly upset by the 
unconstitutionality of the decision to call up the F-FDTL  --- 
the decision was made without a Parliamentary declaration of a 
state of emergency and without consulting the President --- and 
by the fact that orders during the operation were all given 
orally, thus obfuscating accountability.  Some members of this 
group, which includes the highly regarded commander of the 
military police unit, Lt. Col. Alfredo Reinaldo, reportedly also 
feared for their lives at the hands of their F-FDTL colleagues 
who led the weekend operations.  More information regarding this 
group and its intentions will be provided Septel. 
 
Fear and rumors remain an issue and thousands remain displaced 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Despite continued calm and the Government's steps to 
stabilize the situation, an epidemic of panic took hold of Dili 
over the last couple days which has resulted in additional 
thousands fleeing the city (see reftel B).  While a number of 
neighborhoods in the city remain normal, with all or most 
residents remaining, a large number are completely empty or down 
to only a handful of people.  Embassy personnel yesterday 
observed a constant stream of vehicles loaded down with people 
and their belongings heading out of the city.  In speaking to 
people fleeing Dili, we continue to find that the reasons for 
their departure are lack of information, uncertainty, and the 
momentum of fear created as more and more people leave.  In 
addition, people cited the continued F-FDTL presence through 
yesterday afternoon as a contributing factor, although it is not 
yet clear whether the confirmed departure of F-FDTL from Dili 
will contribute to a reversal in the trend. 
 
¶9. (U) It is unclear exactly how many people are now internally 
displaced, but the number is almost certainly in the tens of 
thousands.  It is likely that it will take at least several 
days, and perhaps longer, for many of these people to be 
convinced that it is safe to return to their homes.  As a 
result, the Embassy is concerned that the existence of so many 
internally displaced persons (IDPs) may become its own 
humanitarian crisis in the days to come, necessitating a 
large-scale humanitarian response.  Many national and 
international non-government organizations are already working 
to address food, medical, and other needs.  USAID is assisting 
in these efforts.  These efforts will probably need to continue 
and to be expanded significantly in coming days.  More details 
on the IDP situation will be provided septel. 
 
¶10. (C) Comment: Despite current encouraging trends toward 
normalization, the political situation in East Timor remains 
fluid and possibly fragile.  There is still potential for 
 
DILI 00000213  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
another security crisis if the respective actors do not stay 
their current course and will need to be tracked closely in the 
coming days.  For instance, the Government's serious 
consideration of an ultimatum to the ex-soldiers was worrying. 
However, the reported influence of SRSG Hasagawa's pressure for 
moderation indicates that the international/ diplomatic 
community can play an important role in helping to keep things 
on track.  Amembassy Dili and the diplomatic missions of 
like-minded countries are engaging in similar efforts. 
President Gusmao is also making constant efforts to persuade 
Government leaders and their adversaries to remain calm and 
non-confrontational.  If the trend of the last two days 
continues --- with each day being at least a little bit calmer 
than the day before --- East Timor is likely to weather the 
current crisis.   End comment. 
REES