VZCZCXRO1363
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHCN RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0195/01 1311410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 111410Z MAY 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0927
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0851
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0326
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0326
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0191
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0117
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0016
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0195
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0141
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0078
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 0078
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 0055
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0016
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0082
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1130

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000195 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS SWEEP WEST BENGAL STATE ELECTIONS AND CONGRESS 
WEAKENS IN ASSAM 
 
REF: A) CALCUTTA 0071   B) CALCUTTA 0105   C) CALCUTTA 0134   D) CALCUTT 0148 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Initial May 11 state election results 
indicate that the Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPM) and 
its Left allies increased their seats in West Bengal's 294-seat 
state assembly from 199 to 235.  The CPM's victory is seen as a 
strong endorsement of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya's 
more liberal economic policies.  The CPM expanded its 
representation, gaining an outright majority, while its Left 
Front coalition partners saw a marginal increase in their 
numbers.  In Assam, the Congress party lost its majority but 
still retains a significant lead over the regional opposition 
party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).  Muslim party the Assam United 
Democratic Front (AUDF) split from the Congress Party at the end 
of 2005, drawing away critical Muslim votes and weakening 
Congress.  Despite this, Congress should be able to form an 
Assam government by creating a coalition with smaller, 
independent parties.  The CPM's strong victory in West Bengal 
will give CM Bhattacharya sufficient political cover to initiate 
additional economic reforms in the state.  However at the 
national level, the CPM leadership in New Delhi views the 
electoral victory in West Bengal as a mandate to confront more 
boldly the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on 
economic liberalization and it pro-US foreign policy.  Congress' 
weakening in Assam, one of the few states in East India where it 
has a presence, reflects its continuing difficulty in managing 
the complex regional and coalition politics of this area.  End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Buddha Achieves Electoral Nirvana 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) CPM and Left Front allies under the leadership of CM 
Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will form the WB government for the 
seventh consecutive time.  This victory saw a large increase in 
the Left's seats in the State Assembly, from 199 in the 2001 
election, to 235 seats in 2006.  The party tallies with most of 
the votes counted by 6:00 PM are: 
 
CPM and partners: 235 (CPM 176) 
Trinamul and BJP: 29 
Congress:  20 
Others:  7 
(Elections for one seat have not been held due to the death of a 
candidate.) 
 
 
Opposition party seats dropped from 2001 levels:  Trinamul 60, 
Congress 26 and Others 9.  Further consolidating its position, 
the CPM went from 143 to 176 seats, while its Left allies like 
the CPI, Forward Bloc, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and 
others increased only by 3 seats.  This puts the CPM over the 
threshold of 148 required for an outright majority and reduces 
its reliance on its more leftist and ideological allies. 
 
¶3.  (U) The Election Commission's close monitoring of the WB 
polls, including extensive use of paramilitary forces and 
holding the election in five phases, appears to have encouraged 
greater voter turnout.  Participation was up by eight percent 
from the previous 2001 elections, with 83 percent of eligible 
voters exercising their franchise.  This year's election also 
saw little of the intimidation and violence by party workers 
that has marred past elections. 
 
¶4.  (U) We attribute the strong CPM showing to voter support of 
the economic reforms implemented by the WB government.  The 
reforms have stimulated economic growth to over seven percent in 
the last five years.  The voters also rejected the erratic 
Trinamul leader Mamata Banerjee.  Her campaign was weak and she 
purposely avoided creating a strong grassroots organization out 
of fear of potential party rivals.  In addition, her ineffectual 
protests in 2005 against investments in the State by the 
Indonesian Salim Group portrayed her as anti-development. 
Congress, a marginal player in this election and struggling with 
party infighting, managed to hold its own and not suffer 
 
CALCUTTA 00000195  002 OF 003 
 
 
significant losses. 
 
---------------------------- 
Congress Feels Pain in Assam 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The results in Assam were less clear-cut.  Although 
they show Congress leading with 51 seats, it will not win an 
absolute majority of over 64 seats in the 126-seat assembly and 
must gain support from small, independent parties to form a 
coalition government.  Because of Congress' weak performance, 
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi could lose his position.  Although 
his major Congress rivals, Bhubaneswar Kalita and Anjan Datta, 
lost in their districts.  The formation of the new Muslim AUDF 
party in late 2005 appears to have hurt the Congress party by 
drawing away its once reliable Muslim 'vote bank.'  Muslims 
influence the electoral outcome in at least 20 assembly 
constituencies.  The formation of the AUDF reflected a 
perception among the Muslim community that Congress was taking 
its vote for granted.  The AUDF leadership accused Congress of 
failing to respond effectively, when the Indian Supreme Court 
declared the Immigrant Migrants Determination Tribunal (IMDT) 
act unconstitutional in 2005.  The IMDT protected illegal 
Bangladeshi migrants from being deported. Congress' effort in 
April to amend the Foreigners Act with protections similar to 
the IMDT was seen as by the Muslim community as 'too little too 
late.'  A Congress contact said that the party would first try 
to form the government with the support of the tribal Bodo 
People's Progressive Front- Hagrama (BPPF-H), Independents and 
other parties, and would approach the AUDF as a last result. 
Congress/AUDF relations became strained after the party declared 
that it did not want Gogoi to remain as CM. 
 
The latest results for the major parties are: 
 
Congress:  51 
Asom Gana Parishad:  25 
Assam United Democratic Front:  8 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) CPM's strong gain in WB is seen as a mandate by many 
observers here for CM Bhattacharya and his economic reform 
policies.  In the past year, the CM had confronted party 
stalwarts like State Lands Reform Minister Abdur Razzak Mulloh, 
who had threatened to resign in protest over the sale of large 
tracts of land to corporate investors.  In addition, the CM had 
been publicly critical of State Minister for Higher Education 
Satyasadhan Chakraborty, for not implementing education reforms 
meant to enhance the employability of graduates.  Ultimately, 
all five of the old-line Communist Education Ministers were 
denied tickets in this election for being too ineffectual and 
rigidly dogmatic.  Following his electoral victory, the CM can 
be expected to initiate more reforms and efforts to attract 
private investment in apparent contradiction of the CPM's 
ideological principles.  Bhattacharya has already announced a 
desire for a new Calcutta airport, financed and managed by 
private investors, even while the CPM national leadership is 
protesting UPA plans to privatize Mumbai and New Delhi airports. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Ironically, at the national level the CPM leadership 
will likely take the opposite tack, using the election results 
to pressure the Congress-led UPA to back off from economic 
reforms and closer relations with the US.  CPM MP Mohammad Salim 
commented to Post that the election results demonstrate that 
Congress cannot take Left support for granted, particularly on 
the issues of reform and foreign policy. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Congress' poor showing in Assam contributes to its 
waning in Eastern India.  The results demonstrate that at least 
in this area, Congress is failing to manage regional and 
coalition politics.  In a region with almost a third of India's 
population, Congress appears to be a fading presence, having, 
 
CALCUTTA 00000195  003 OF 003 
 
 
aside from Assam, a government in Arunachal Pradesh and a weak 
coalition government in Manipur. 
JARDINE