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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PINR KG
SUBJECT: MAJOR GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP:  OLD WINE, NEW BOTTLE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  On May 10, the government announced a major 
personnel shakeup.  As part of the reshuffling, National 
Security Service (SNB) Chairman Tashtemir Aitbayev as well as 
the Minister of Agriculture were dismissed, and State 
Secretary Dastan Sarygulov resigned.  Both Vice Prime 
 
SIPDIS 
Ministers (VPM) have been reassigned, with Prime Minister 
Kulov's nemesis and former VPM Daniyar Usenov nominated to 
become the new First VPM.  The shakeup is in part a gesture 
to the opposition, which demanded in the run-up to its April 
29 demonstration the dismissal of both Sarygulov and 
Aitbayev.  But in the long-run, the personnel changes will 
likely have little real effect on policy ) the two new Vice 
Prime Ministers are longtime Bakiyev cronies, and it is 
uncertain what if any influence the newly-appointed officials 
actually have on President Bakiyev.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SHAKEUP NO REAL SURPRISE 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The May 10 announcement of a major government 
reshuffling came after weeks of rumors that just such changes 
were in the works.  The changes were foreshadowed by the May 
4 replacement of President Bakiyev's representative in 
Parliament Daniyar Narymbayev with Deputy Interior Minister 
Alymbai Sultanov. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) As part of the reshuffling, the unpopular SNB 
Chairman Tashtemir Aitbayev was sacked.  Parliament had 
explicitly called for Aitbayev's removal in February 
following a scandal over the SNB's involvement with organized 
crime.  He will be replaced by the Head of the Office of 
Defense and Security Policy under the Presidential 
Administration Busurmankul Tabaldiyev.  (NOTE:  Tabaldiyev 
also oversaw the drafting of Kyrgyzstan's Millennium 
Challenge Threshold Program Proposal.  END NOTE).  Minister 
of Agriculture Anarbayev was also sacked, and will be 
replaced by Deputy Chief of Presidential Administration, Azim 
Isabekov. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Current First VPM Medetbek Kerimkulov was demoted 
to Minister of Trade, Industry and Tourism (replacing 
opposition figure Almaz Atambayev, who resigned from the job 
in protest in late April).  Kerimkulov will be replaced by 
the controversial businessman and 2000 presidential candidate 
Daniyar Usenov, who served previously as Acting First VPM 
until November of 2005.  The other Vice Prime Minister, 
Adakhan Madumarov, will replace Sarygulov as State Secretary. 
 Sarygulov, who is deeply unpopular with the opposition, 
resigned his post, but is rumored to be in the running for 
the post of Governor of Issyk-Kul Oblast.  Madumarov will be 
replaced by current Rector of Kyrgyz National University (and 
former Vice Prime Minister and Education Minister) Ishengul 
Boljurova.  The VPM and Ministers of Trade and Agriculture 
appointments require parliamentary approval. 
 
PERSONNEL CHANGES PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF THE SAME 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5.  (C) COMMENT:  Although it makes for dramatic headlines, 
the reshuffling will likely have little effect on policy - 
one group of Bakiyev cronies is being replaced by another, 
with the two newly appointed Vice Prime Ministers returning 
to the jobs they left only six months ago.  The appointment 
of Daniyar Usenov could ratchet up tensions between President 
Bakiyev and Prime Minister Kulov (or signal an intention on 
the part of Bakiyev to increase pressure on Kulov) in that 
Kulov and Usenov are longtime rivals.  Kulov reportedly told 
Bakiyev in 2005 that he wouldn't work in any government in 
which Usenov served.  However, it is far from certain whether 
Usenov will even be approved by Parliament for the First VPM 
post ) he was overwhelmingly rejected by the Parliament for 
the post of First VPM in November of 2005, and his popularity 
has not improved since then. 
 
¶6.  (C) More importantly, the sacking of Aitbayev and 
 
BISHKEK 00000674  002 OF 002 
 
 
resignation of Sarygulov are important concessions to the 
opposition, and come on the heels of Bakiyev's May 3 
directive to the Constitutional Reform Working group to 
complete three draft constitutions by August 1.  Opposition 
leaders asked for the dismissal of both Aitbayev and 
Sarygulov (as well as rapid progress on constitutional 
reform) as part of their list of ten demands made to 
President Bakiyev in the run-up to the April 29 opposition 
demonstration.  Bakiyev may also have forced Aitbayev and 
Sarygulov out of the government in an effort defuse 
opposition plans for another major demonstration on May 27. 
The opposition has also demanded that Chief of Presidential 
Administration Usen Sydykov and Procurator General Kombaraly 
Kongantiyev be sacked as well.  Pro-Bakiyev newspaper owner 
Aleksandr Kim told the Ambassador that both Kongantiyev and 
Sydykov will be sacked, but only after May 27 in that Bakiyev 
does not want to appear to be caving in to opposition 
demands.  Daniyar Narymbayev is rumored to be the 
front-runner to replace Kongantiyev, in the event these 
personnel changes take place. 
YOVANOVITCH