VZCZCXRO2517
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #0862/01 1510816
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 310816Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8695
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000862 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: Draskovic: To Be Foreign Minister or Not to Be 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000862  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
Q (SBU) Rumors abound about the future of Serbia and 
Montenegro Foreign Minister (FM), Vuk Draskovic, as his 
ministry is dissolved in the wake of the successful 
Montenegrin referendum.  Although Serbia will create its 
own foreign ministry, insiders speculate that Draskovic 
(among others) could be slotted for the vacant deputy prime 
minister (DPM) position.  In deciding Draskovic's future, 
Prime Minister Kostunica will need to play a careful 
balancing act in order to avoid alienating key members of 
his coalition and losing more parliamentary seats. 
Draskovic insists he has not intention of giving up the FM 
job for the DPM position.  End Summary. 
 
Draskovic: Weighing an Offer that May Never Come 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Even before the Montenegrins voted for 
independence, political insiders and journalists had begun 
to suggest that Draskovic would not be the Serbian Foreign 
Minister in a reorganized government.  On issues ranging 
from Kosovo to NATO, Kostunica has been frustrated with the 
foreign minister's forward-leaning, pro-Western stances. 
The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has also been highly 
critical of Draskovic for similar reasons, and its current 
leader, Ivica Dacic, has said the party will not support 
Draskovic as Serbian foreign minister [Embassy Comment: The 
SPS is the unreformed party of Slobodan Milosevic, who 
tried to have Draskovic assassinated twice.  The SPS' 
support is critical for the survival of Kostunica's 
government.  End Comment]. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Several Embassy contacts have said that the GOS 
may offer to Draskovic the deputy prime minister position 
instead, which Miroljub Labus recently vacated, in order to 
keep Draskovic in government.  It is a generally weaker 
position that would allow Draskovic to stay in the 
limelight, but largely sideline him from power. 
Nonetheless, several individuals close to Draskovic and the 
SPO have predicted that Draskovic would likely reject the 
DPM offer.  Draskovic himself told an Embassy officer that 
he is not interested in the DPM job in exchange for the FM 
position. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Alternatively, Milos Aligrudic, Chairman of the 
DSS parliamentary caucus, told poloff that Kostunica 
prefers to keep the current coalition arrangement that 
gives the SPO control over the foreign ministry.  He added 
that the government can only count on 130 MPs in parliament 
and does not want to risk losing Draskovic and his three 
deputies, which would make governance difficult even though 
the coalition could survive.  He said that the GOS is 
trying to find a compromise that will satisfy the SPO and 
SPS and has even reached out to the opposition Democratic 
Party (DS) for support.  Senic also noted that Draskovic 
hopes the DSS and the DS will provide enough votes to 
appoint him to be Serbian foreign minister, should the SPS 
threaten to vote down his nomination.  Nonetheless, senior 
DS officials already have told emboffs that they will not 
support a government measure to appoinQraskovic.  If 
Draskovic does inherit the Serbian MFA, Senic said that the 
SPO could leave government after its main board meeting in 
June.  He added, however, that the SPO is opposed to 
immediate elections, although anticipates them before the 
end of the year.  In an interesting twist, one political 
insider told us 5/26 that Kostunica has also secured 
agreement from Nebojsa Covic's (SDP) two MPs to support the 
coalition in the event that Draskovic and his 3 MPs walk. 
Biographic Note on Draskovic: The Nationalist Chameleon 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶5.  (U) Vuk Drakovic was born to a Serbian family of 
colonists who populated Vojvodina after Tito expelled 
500,000 ethnic Germans after World War II.  In 1968, he 
graduated from the Faculty of Law at Belgrade University 
and worked as a journalist and later as chief of staff for 
a high-ranking communist official. In the 1980's, he became 
famous as a writer, whose fiction celebrated nationalism by 
dramatizing the aggregious atrocities that Croats committed 
against Serbs during WW2.  He often invokes images of the 
past in his speeches and has called for a return to the 
monarchy.  Most recently, on May 21, 2006, he said, A 
constitutional parliamentary monarchy would be a sound 
foundation for Serbia to build on.  Nonetheless, Senic 
told poloff that, while Draskovic may personally support a 
return of the monarchy, the SPO generally saw it as a 
vehicle to attract support from the 600,000 royalist Serbs 
and do not seriously consider it a likely or viable option. 
 
6.(U) During the 1990's, Draskovic and his close 
se 
 
BELGRADE 00000862  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
friends, Vojislav Seselj (Draskovic's best man)and Mirko 
Jovic, founded the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO). 
Draskovic strongly supported the war against Croatia and 
sent his personal paramilitary force, the Serbian Guard, to 
fight there.  Nonetheless, he had a falling out with 
Milosevic because of two factors: first, his rabid anti- 
communist sentiments; and second, he did not believe it was 
possible to carve out a separate Serb territory in Bosnia 
and thought doing so would reflect badly on Serbs and 
destroy Bosnia.  As a result, he took his followers to the 
street in massive anti-government demonstrations. 
¶7.  (U) During this period, Milosevic's forces arrested and 
beat Draskovic and his wife, Danica.  This event gained him 
sympathy from the international community and the 
acceptance of pro-democratic opposition leaders. 
Opposition forces won an election victory in 1996, but fell 
apart under strong pressure from Milosevic and internal 
squabbling.  As they unraveled, Draskovic started to 
maneuver his party closer to Milosevic and made a deal to 
topple Djindjic for control of the Belgrade city 
government.  Draskovic then joined Milosevic's Federal 
government and for a short time was Deputy Prime Minister. 
This relationship, however, fell apart at the height of the 
NATO bombing when Draskovic criticized Milosevic's handling 
of the Kosovo crisis.  Milosevic retaliated by setting up 
two assassination attempts on Draskovic in 1999, in which 
his brother-in-law was killed, and June 2000.  Nonetheless, 
in 2000, the electorate voted the SPO out of the 
parliament.  Despite this, he resurrected himself and his 
party in 2003 as a tiny minority partner in the current 
coalition. 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Vuk Draskovic has become an ally of the United 
States and supports SaM joining NATO; two positions that 
undoubtedly have earned him the ire of the Socialists. The 
Prime Minister may not be opposed to sidelining the vocal 
Foreign Minister by appointing him to amorphous deputy 
prime minister position, which did not carry much weight 
even under Labus.  Nonetheless, his primary focus is 
keeping a manageable majority in parliament by any means 
necessary--a skill to which Kostunica has proved remarkably 
adept--and likely will keep Draskovic as foreign minister 
unless the SPS threatens to withdraw its support.  As for 
Draskovic, his long-term prospects are questionable, with 
his party divided and performing terribly in the polls. 
Nonetheless, we should not count him out yet.  He is an 
active voice in the Serbian political drama and has revived 
his political career on more than one occasion.  End 
Comment. 
POLT