VZCZCXRO4527
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #0825/01 1431513
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231513Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8639
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000825 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO EUR/DAS DICARLO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM: INDEPENDENCE, ACCORDING TO 
OFFICIAL "PRELIMINARY" RETURNS 
 
BELGRADE 00000825  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 805 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Republic Referendum Commission 
announced at 8:30 a.m. Monday May 23, the official 
preliminary results in the May 21 independence referendum: 
55.5 percent for independence.  While official, these 
results are "preliminary," pending possible complaints that 
could be lodged by the pro-Union bloc.  Although the pro- 
Union option squeaked by with just 2000 votes above the 55 
percent required threshold, we believe it unlikely that the 
final result will change, even after complaints have been 
processed.  Turnout was exceptionally high, at 86.5 
percent. OSCE/ODIHR called the vote "free and fair." The 
Mission released the Ambassador's statement acknowledging 
the outcome and commending the Montenegrin people on a fair 
contest.  The Ambassador also congratulated President 
Vuijanovic and Prime Minister Djukanovic by phone and 
commiserated with opposition leader Bulatovic, urging him 
to close ranks in Montenegro and look to the future. End 
summary. 
 
Official "Preliminary" Results: Independence 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Republican Referendum Commission (RRC) chair 
Ambassador Lipka (Slovakia) announced the official 
preliminary results on the morning of May 23: 55.5 percent 
in favor of independence, with turnout of 86.49 percent of 
Montenegro's 484,718 voters. Invalid ballots were only 0.87 
percent. The RRC's first announcement, on the morning of 
May 22, put the votes at 55.4 percent for independence, 
44.6 percent for Union, while still waiting results from 45 
of 1,117 polling stations, which Lipka said represented 
some 25,000 voters.  So far, no complaints have been 
received on the voting process. Any complaints must be 
filed by 9 a.m. May 26; the RRC must resolve complaints 
within 24 hours. Parliament will then vote to accept the 
results. A GoM declaration of independence, and requests 
for recognition, could follow rapidly after the 
Parliamentary vote. 
 
Opposition Urged Patience - and Stonewalled 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Pro-Union bloc leader Predrag Bulatovic criticized 
the PM's early claim of victory, saying that Montenegrins 
should wait for the Republic Referendum Commission's 
announcement of official preliminary results later, "after 
all the votes were counted." Bulatovic's SNP led a pro- 
Union bloc refusal to certify results of 37 polling places 
(totaling 19,000 votes) in Podgorica, citing "glitches" in 
the lower boards' minutes.  With a legal requirement that 
preliminary results be announced by 9 a.m. May 23, RRC 
Chair Lipka had to step in and certify the results. 
Nonetheless, Bulatovic's call late on May 21 for Union 
supporters to stay home until official results are 
available appears to have helped avoid clashes between the 
blocs.  Comment: The pro-Union bloc commendably took their 
objections to and through the appropriate bureaucratic 
mechanisms, and not to the streets.  End comment. 
 
Strong Turnout, Minor Irregularities, Few Altercations 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (U) Turnout was exceptionally high at 86.5 percent, 
reflecting the strong interest raised by the independence 
question and the return of thousands of voters from abroad. 
Minor irregularities, most commonly public voting, affected 
a noticeable number of polling stations. Irregularities did 
not rise to the level requiring the dissolution of polling 
stations.  Polling boards were mixed in their decisions on 
public voting, with most public votes being invalidated. 
Three of Montenegro's 1,117 stations were temporarily 
affected by fistfights, but voting was not cancelled. In 
one such instance, a local observer was physically attacked 
but not injured by a passerby outside a polling station in 
Bijelo Polje.  Generally, polling boards took seriously 
their duty to assure everyone their right to vote on May 
¶21. Unfortunately, a small number of board members (who 
belong 50/50 to either the pro-independence or pro-union 
blocs) allowed their partisan views to affect their 
performance, usually either by facilitating the tracking of 
those who had voted, or by continuing to discuss the pros 
and cons of independence inside the polling place. The most 
egregious examples of partisanship were in Podgorica after 
 
BELGRADE 00000825  002 OF 002 
 
 
the vote, as noted. Unclear rules on the use of cell phones 
in the polling places also caused complications, and 
facilitated some forms of public voting. 
 
Local Observers Kept Focus on Problems, Turnout 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5. (U) Local NGOs Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) 
and the Center for Monitoring (CEMi) deployed hundreds of 
observers throughout Montenegro.  They also conducted 
regular press conferences throughout the day, in which they 
highlighted irregularities, and announced turnout, on both 
the Republic and municipality level.  USG teams used the 
reports of irregularities to follow up in problem polling 
stations, which in many but not all cases had mended their 
ways after the NGO reports. 
 
OSCE/ODIHR Calls Voting "In Line with Standards" 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODIHR observers reports rated the voting 
process at 96 percent of polling stations as "good" or 
"very good" ("very good" is the top mark). ODIHR made its 
preliminary report midday on Monday May 22, calling the 
conduct of the referendum "in line with OSCE and Council of 
Europe commitments and other international standards." Post 
shares ODIHR's assessment of the voting process, and 
concurs the vote was free, fair, and transparent. 
 
The view from Belgrade 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) While there has been no official reaction from the 
GOS, media has reported some disgruntled rumblings from the 
PM's office.  PM advisor Aleksandar Simic lambasted the 
pollsters as part of a "separatist scenario" and said that 
he would "not be surprised if someone today filed criminal 
charges" against them. Meanwhile, FM Draskovic took the 
opportunity of the referendum result to call for a 
restoration of the Serbian crown as part of a 
constitutional monarchy as a way "to shorten our road 
towards Europe."  Local analysts do not think Draskovic?s 
call will resonate with the electorate. 
 
Croatia, Macedonia Reportedly Congratulate Independence 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶9. (U) Montenegrin media reported at noon on May 22 that 
Croatian President Stjepan Mesic has congratulated 
Montenegrin President Vujanovic on the "(creation of) the 
independent state of Montenegro."  Also on May 22, 
Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski congratulated 
Vujanovic on Montenegro's independence, according to a 
statement from Crvenkovski's Cabinet.  Kosovo's President 
Sejdiju and PM Ceku have also expressed congratulations for 
Montenegrin independence.  The numerous congratulatory 
messages coming in from others focus more or less 
explicitly on the referendum process itself rather than the 
result. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) So far there has been silence from senior 
officials in Belgrade; with the predictable unsubstantiated 
speculation from lower level officials and unnamed press 
sources.  As we reported in reftel there will have to be a 
number of practical/legal fixes for a post-SaM future.  All 
of that will become clearer in the days ahead as soon as 
all the votes are counted and the likely result is 
confirmed.  We do not discount last minute challenges but 
will look to make a statement quickly and to encourage 
practical steps that will ensure that there is no 
uncertainty or discontinuity in the normal functioning of 
government in Belgrade. 
 
¶11. (U) Montenegrins of all political persuasions have been 
assuring sometimes skeptical foreigners for months that 
they expected little if any violence or instability, 
whatever the referendum result.  In the event, they debated 
and decided a momentous, highly-charged issue whose outcome 
was balanced on a statistical knife-edge, without major 
problems -- at least so far.  International observers have 
commended Montenegro for its democratic handling of this 
challenging vote. 
 
POLT