VZCZCXRO9575
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKB #0734/01 1381309
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181309Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0362
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINR PBTS ECIN AJ GG UP MD
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV TO ATTEND KIEV GUAM SUMMIT; GOAJ 
FOCUSED ON ESTABLISHING FORMAL GUAM STRUCTURES 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Joan Polaschik, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  President Aliyev will attend the GUAM Summit 
in Kiev, according to his foreign policy advisor, Novruz 
Mammadov.  Mammadov believes Ukraine will use the summit to 
stake out a leadership role in the region.  Russia, he 
believes, sees GUAM as a rival to the CIS and will try to 
leverage the August CIS summit to reassert its own leadership 
in the region - although Georgia and Moldova may not even 
attend.  At the working level, the Azerbaijan MFA sees the 
establishment of GUAM as a true international organization 
with a secretariat and a budget as a major goal of the 
summit.  At the summit, the MFA also hopes to highlight the 
resolution of regional conflicts, economic cooperation 
(including energy) and progress on GUAM's major projects - 
the Virtual Law Enforcement Center and the Trade and 
Transport Facilitation project.  The GOAJ is pleased with 
GUAM's progress and appreciates the past and current support 
of GUAM by the United States.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
MAMMADOV:  GUAM, CIS ABOUT REGIONAL LEADERSHIP 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (C) In a May 17 meeting with Acting DCM, Presidential 
Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov confirmed that 
President Ailyev will attend the May 22-23 summit in Kiev. 
Mammadov noted that the Ukrainian Government wants the summit 
to focus on democracy; in his view, that will be fine. 
However, the Azerbaijani MFA has not yet briefed President 
Aliyev on its views of and plans for the summit.  Mammadov 
was not sure what Azerbaijan's final position would be on any 
of the GUAM issues, or in which meetings President Aliyev 
would participate.  Mammadov commented that Ukrainian 
President Yushchenko seems to be using GUAM as a vehicle to 
stake out his leadership role among the countries formerly 
part of the Soviet Union. 
 
¶3. (C) Mammadov said that Vice President Cheney's recent 
remarks in Latvia and Kazakhstan had made it clear that there 
is now a rivalry between the U.S. and Russia for influence in 
the former Soviet Union.  The strengthening of regional 
organizations such as GUAM, Mammadov said, will only 
exacerbate the Russians' concerns, as a strengthened GUAM 
with close ties to the U.S. inevitably will be seen as a 
rival to the CIS.  Mammadov believes the upcoming CIS summit 
in August will be extremely interesting, predicting that 
Russian President Putin will employ his usual, low-key and 
friendly style at the summit to try to sway regional leaders 
to his side.  "We are brothers," Mammadov said Putin 
frequently tells the former Soviet leaders.  Mammadov 
speculated the Georgian and Ukrainian "brothers," however, 
may not be present at the next CIS summit.  Turning to 
another aspect of regional cooperation, Mammadov predicted 
that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will sign the long-awaited 
Inter-Governmental Agreement on cross-Caspian oil transport 
at a regional summit in Kazakhstan on June 19. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
MFA PRIORITIES: MAKING GUAM A REAL ORGANIZATION 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (C) In a separate May 16 meeting with Emboff, Galib 
Israfilov of the MFA's security issues directorate said that 
Azerbaijan's first goal for the summit is to complete the 
process of transforming GUAM from a regional grouping into an 
actual international organization.  A formal charter for GUAM 
will be signed and a formal secretariat, to sit in Kiev, will 
be established.  The secretariat will employ both 
international and local staff and have its own budget. 
Israfilov believes that this will help relieve the pressure 
on national foreign ministries, which have many issues to 
worry about besides GUAM.  For the moment, Israfilov said, 
GUAM will continue to use both Russian and English as its 
official languages.  While many in the organization would 
like to shift over entirely to English, said Israfilov, the 
level of English-language proficiency in the four member 
countries is not quite high enough to do so yet.  Israfilov 
said that he understands GUAM will now be referred to as the 
"Organization for Democracy and Development - GUAM".  This 
will allow the organization to have a more descriptive name 
while not losing the name-recognition "GUAM" has built up. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
OTHER PRIORITIES: REGIONAL CONFLICTS, ECONOMICS, PROJECTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Another priority for Azerbaijan, said Israfilov, is 
engaging GUAM on the settlement of regional conflicts.  The 
 
BAKU 00000734  002 OF 002 
 
 
strength of GUAM is its unanimity, said Israfilov.  Although 
each case is different, he said, each of the GUAM members has 
some experience with "separatism" and can have a broad 
understanding of the issue.  Other issues on Azerbaijan's 
agenda include continuing the Virtual Law Enforcement Center 
(VLEC) project and the Trade and Transport Facilitation (TTF) 
project.  Part of TTF involves the harmonizing of standards 
and tariffs, said Israfilov, and this too will be discussed 
at the summit.  Finally, said Israfilov, the GOAJ wants to 
discuss ways the GUAM members can cooperate on economic and 
energy issues (Israfilov did not provide specifics).  There 
will also be a meeting of the GUAM Youth Forum, and 
discussions of health issues and cultural exchages. 
 
¶6. (C) Israfilov remarked that GUAM has certainly grown over 
the past few years and that Ukraine's attitude has changed 
over that time, to the point where it is much more supportive 
and active than it was before.  Israfilov expressed thanks 
for the support the United States has given GUAM over the 
years.  This support was crucial in getting the organization 
off the ground, he said.  Emboff replied that the United 
States continues to support GUAM and its member states 
deserve credit as well for GUAM's concrete progress. 
HYLAND