This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001148 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: A TALE OF THREE CONTACTS 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell. Reasons: 1.5 (B & D) 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  In meetings with National Secretary of the 
ruling PDP Ojo Maduekwe on May 13 and PDP Senator Ben Obi on 
May 15, they described these as the worst of times.  Both 
expected today's defeat of the third term agenda in the 
National Assembly (septel) but worried that the actual end of 
this issue would not come until President Obasanjo made a 
public announcement and took actions to calm the polity. 
While Maduekwe was hopeful, Obi warned that after the defeat 
of the proposed constitutional amendments, Obasanjo could 
become "more dangerous" and counselled caution as Nigeria 
prepares for elections.  In a separate meeting May 15, Vice 
President Atiku Abubakar, echoed the themes presented by 
these two, tending towards the viewpoint of Obi.  Even though 
the amendment process appears over in the National Assembly, 
critics argue that other options remain on the table, 
including ongoing instability and the possibility of meddling 
in the electoral process to produce a situation allowing 
President Obasanjo to extend his time in office through 
emergency actions.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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ON OBASANJO 
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¶2.  (C)  Ambassador met over the weekend with the National 
Secretary of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) Ojo 
 
SIPDIS 
Maduekwe, an Abacha cheerleader in 1997 and Minister of 
Transportation in President Olusegun Obasanjo's 1999 
administration.  Maduekwe commented that he, and others in 
Obasanjo's former inner circle, "never expected Obasanjo to 
behave this way."  He said that had they known, they would 
have advised him against his third term efforts early on.  In 
a separate May 15 meeting, PDP Senator Ben Obi, from Anambra 
State, disagreed, stating that the "signs were there years 
ago."  He further commented that Obasanjo "had a history of 
overstaying his welcome" but that, like in 1979, the Nigerian 
political/military establishment would not allow him to 
continue.  Obi described Obasanjo as stubborn, vindictive and 
cowardly.  "If someone stands up to him, he will crumble," 
Obi said.  Maduekwe said, though, that he believed that 
Obasanjo had "a moral conscience" and would ultimately "do 
the right thing." 
 
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ON THE THIRD TERM 
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¶3.  (C)  Both commented that the third term amendment could 
not carry the National Assembly.  Ojo said that Obasanjo was 
depending on a shrinking circle of advisors to manage the 
amendments, including only PDP Board of Trustees Chairman and 
former Minister of Works and Housing Tony Anenih and Special 
Advisors Andy Uba and Florence Ita-Giwa.  Others, he said, 
had fallen out of the circle for various reasons. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Obi said that retired General T.Y. Danjuma had met 
with Obasanjo last week and told him bluntly to leave office. 
 Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other sources confirmed 
the gist of the meeting where, according to Obi, Danjuma, 
ignoring all protocol, advised Obasanjo that his time was up. 
 
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WHAT NEXT? 
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¶5.  (C)  Both men cautioned that defeat in the National 
Assembly would not be the end of the matter, although 
Maduekwe was "hopeful" that the President would follow his 
better instincts and step aside.  Obi, on the other hand, 
worried that once Obasanjo conceded defeat on the 
constitutional amendment, "he would become more dangerous." 
Obi stressed that three options remain.  The first, he said, 
was the ongoing instability in the Delta.  "Remember I 
advised that there could be no peace in the Delta until 
questions of Obasanjo's extension were resolved," he said. 
He believes that Obasanjo could manipulate the crisis to 
declare a state of emergency in the country and attempt to 
use that to justify the cancellation of elections for an 
indeterminate period of time. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Alternatively, Obi said that Obasanjo has 
demonstrated that the Independent National Elections 
Commission (INEC) could be manipulated to provide a pretext 
for term extension.  "The President could either suspend 
preparations, claiming they were inadequate, or wait until a 
faulty process had been concluded to step in as the statesman 
capable of saving Nigeria from chaos.  Both Maduekwe and the 
Vice President concurred with this assessment, with Atiku 
echoing Obi's statements almost verbatim. 
 
¶7.  (C)  All three were worried about Obasanjo's state of 
mind.  While none specifically mentioned his spiritual 
advisors, Maduekwe did express concern that the President's 
"messianic streak" could entice him to "stay at all costs." 
While Obi was less concerned about this issue, all were 
interested in exploring the possibility of a face-saving 
"soft landing" for Obasanjo.  Atiku said that Governor Tinubu 
(Lagos State, Alliance for Democracy) was willing to attempt 
a reconciliation between the President and the Vice 
President, but Atiku said this could not happen until "the 
third term is off the table."  Concerned about the 
President's possible reaction they said they have been 
exploring many options to convince Obasanjo to walk away, 
through military, political, traditional and even 
international messengers.  They all commented, however, that 
a future role for Obasanjo was important, whether through a 
United Nations appointment, an African Union role, a 
university position (such as Boston University's Balfour 
African Presidents in Residence program), or some other 
avenue to ensure President Obasanjo's acquiescence. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8.  (C)  The President could see the writing on the wall in 
the aftermath of the past week's activities and might decide 
to withdraw himself from the political process, perhaps 
(according to Atiku) refusing to endorse a successor. 
However, if these men are correct, the more likely scenario 
is that Obasanjo will continue to explore exotic options to 
extend his stay in the Aso Rock Presidential Villa beyond 
¶2007. 
CAMPBELL