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PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHSO #0400/01 1031016
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131016Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4849
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 5992
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2155
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2501
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0242
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1908
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2709
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1650
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6984
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2834
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2365
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000400 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR CRONIN 
STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY 
DEPT OF TREASURY OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/SHUPKA 
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DDEVITO/DANDERSON 
STATE PASS EXIMBANK 
STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE 
DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: PSDB OFFICIAL EYES UPCOMING ELECTIONS 
 
REF: (A) SAO PAULO 355; (B) BRASILIA 640 AND PREVIOUS; 
     (C) SAO PAULO 316; (D) SAO PAULO 206; 
     (E) SAO PAULO 102 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) Poloff and Political Assistant met April 7 with Sao Paulo 
Municipal Secretary of Government Aloysio Nunes Ferreira to discuss 
the local and national political scene following Mayor Jose Serra's 
resignation to run for Governor of Sao Paulo state (ref A).  Nunes, 
who is close to Serra, was sanguine about the prospects of his 
Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) to capture both the 
Presidency and the Governor's Palace.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
"KASSAB ASKED ME TO STAY" 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On April 7, Poloff and Political Assistant visited Aloysio 
Nunes Ferreira in his City Hall office.  In the midst of large-scale 
resignations of both municipal and state officials to comply with 
the requirement that executive branch officials resign six months 
before any election in which they plan to seek government office, 
Nunes chose to stay on as Sao Paulo Municipal Secretary of 
Government, an important position responsible for coordinating the 
work of the other Secretariats.  He indicated that new Mayor 
Gilberto Kassab had asked him to remain to help ensure continuity in 
city government after the resignation of Mayor Serra and a number of 
Secretaries.  Kassab (see ref E), a member of the Liberal Front 
 
SIPDIS 
Party (PFL) who was Vice-Mayor and will serve as Mayor through 
December 2008, has pledged to continue Serra's policies. 
 
¶3. (U) By remaining in City Hall, the 61-year-old Nunes forfeited 
his eligibility to run for re-election to the federal Chamber of 
Deputies.  (Note: Re-elected to Congress in 2002, Nunes took leave 
from the Chamber to serve in Serra's administration.  End Note.)  He 
noted that he had been elected a deputy five times, twice (1982 and 
1986) to the Sao Paulo state Legislative Assembly and three times to 
the federal Chamber (1995, 1999, and 2003), and that was enough.  He 
planned to help administer the city government, liaise with the 
Serra gubernatorial campaign, and generally make himself useful to 
both Serra and Kassab. 
 
----------------- 
PSDB-PFL ALLIANCE 
----------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Nunes confirmed that at the Sao Paulo state level the 
PSDB-PFL alliance remains strong, and that although the campaign has 
not yet settled on a name, he was almost certain that Serra's 
running mate would be from the PFL.  (Note: The front-runner for the 
Lieutenant Governor nomination appears to be Guilherme Afif 
Domingos, who ran for President in 1989 and is currently the 
President of the Sao Paulo Associao Comercial (Chamber of Commerce). 
 End Note.)  Likewise, former Governor Alckmin would choose a 
"pefelista" to run for Vice President on his ticket, most likely 
someone from the Northeast to give the ticket regional balance and 
help Alckmin in a critical region where he is virtually unknown; the 
two names most commonly mentioned are Pernambuco Senator Jose Jorge 
and Rio Grande do Norte Senator Jose Agripino Maia.  Some 
influential members of the PFL are reportedly pushing for the 
nomination of party President Jorge Bornhausen, but the candidacy of 
the Senator from the southern state of Santa Catarina would not make 
 
SAO PAULO 00000400  002 OF 003 
 
 
sense geographically. 
 
----------------- 
SERRA AND ALCKMIN 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Poloff asked if Nunes had been surprised by the way Alckmin 
had contended for and ultimately won the PSDB presidential 
nomination (refs C-D).  After a long pause, Nunes replied, "I 
was...He put Serra in a very difficult position."  Nunes went on to 
explain that it was impossible for Serra to resign as Mayor to 
launch his presidential candidacy if he was fighting with Alckmin. 
Since Alckmin refused to step aside or accept a deal to end his own 
candidacy, Serra had no choice but to stay put.  However, Alckmin's 
own resignation had opened up the gubernatorial option for Serra. 
Nunes was confident that Alckmin could overcome his 20-point deficit 
in the polls and run a strong race against President Lula, and very 
likely win.  Poll results released April 7, meanwhile, showed that 
Serra's lead over possible rivals for the governorship had only 
widened. 
 
--------------- 
THE PMDB FACTOR 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Nunes, who joined the PSDB in 1997 after many years in the 
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), thought the wild card in 
the Governor's race would be his former political mentor, state PMDB 
President and former Governor (1986-90) Orestes Quercia.  Lula's 
Workers' Party (PT) would almost certainly run former Sao Paulo 
Mayor Marta Suplicy; her rival for the PT nomination, Senator 
Aloysio Mercadante, is very well known, state- and nation-wide, but 
he doesn't have a strong personal or political identity like Suplicy 
does and, for that matter Serra.  (Nunes acknowledged that Serra's 
"strong identity" brought with it high negative ratings that 
hindered him in his unsuccessful quest for the presidential 
nomination.)  And he was confident that Serra could defeat Suplicy 
handily, as he did in the 2004 Mayoral race.  (Comment: When Charg 
visited Sao Paulo this past January and met with Marta Suplicy, she 
asserted that if a new Mayoral race were held then, she would beat 
Serra.  However, post is unaware of any empirical evidence to 
support such a claim.  Furthermore, while Nunes's prediction of a 
Suplicy primary victory is logical, it should be noted that 
President Lula favors his Senatorial ally Mercadante, and is 
reportedly trying to persuade Marta to withdraw.  End Comment.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) But Quercia, in Nunes's view, will wait until the last 
minute to decide what to do.  He has let it be known that he doesn't 
really want to be Governor again, though he was leading in the polls 
until Serra entered the race.  He would prefer to look after his 
many business interests.  There has been much speculation among 
political pundits that Quercia is seeking an alliance with the PT at 
the state level, one which might include his candidacy for a Senate 
seat from Sao Paulo.  However, all possible deals involving that 
Senate seat - and there are many under discussion -- run up against 
the fact that the incumbent, Eduardo Suplicy of the PT (Marta's 
ex-husband), apparently wants to run for re-election and is 
considered tough to beat.  So Quercia is playing for time.  He has 
reportedly also put out feelers to the PSDB, so far without any 
effect. 
 
¶8. At the national level, Nunes said, the PMDB is unlikely to play a 
role in the presidential election.  Rio de Janeiro ex-governor 
Anthony Garotinho, who won the party's "informal" primary (ref B), 
wants to run, but none of the party's leaders want him to be their 
standard-bearer, though they are trying hard to avoid alienating his 
solid bloc of evangelical supporters.  Quercia recently proposed 
 
SAO PAULO 00000400  003 OF 003 
 
 
former President Itamar Franco as the PMDB presidential candidate, 
but this suggestion is impossible to take seriously.  In addition, 
the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) recently ruled (ref B) that the 
Constitutional amendment passed by Congress eliminating the 
"verticalization" rule cannot take effect until the 2010 elections. 
With "verticalization" still in place, requiring that electoral 
alliances at the national level be replicated in races for governor 
and federal deputy, the PMDB will most likely avoid entangling 
national alliances in order to maintain maximum flexibility in the 
15-18 gubernatorial races it plans to contest, as well as the 
innumerable Congressional races important to a party that wants to 
maintain the largest blocs in both the Chamber and the Senate. 
 
---------------------- 
BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION 
---------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Aloysio Nunes Ferreira has enjoyed an impressively varied 
and often eventful political career.  A militant member of the 
Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) in his youth, he went into exile in 
France in 1968, returning in 1979 when the military dictatorship 
declared an amnesty for political offenses.  Having joined the 
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the legal opposition to the 
dictatorship, in 1966, he participated in the 1982 founding of the 
PMDB as the successor organization to the MDB and worked for the 
restoration of democracy.  After two terms as a Sao Paulo state 
legislator - during which time he was identified as a "quercista," a 
close ally and strong supporter of Orestes Quercia - he was elected 
Lieutenant Governor in 1990 and served in that position in the 
administration of PMDB Governor Luis Antonio Fleury Filho. 
Following a term (1995-99) in the federal Chamber, during which time 
he switched to the PSDB, Nunes was re-elected a Federal Deputy, but 
departed eight months later to serve (1999-2001) as Minister of 
State and Chief of the Secretariat-General of President Fernando 
Henrique Cardoso and subsequently (2001-02) as Minister of Justice. 
He has served in party leadership positions for both the PMDB and 
PSDB.  Nunes holds degrees in political science and political 
economy from the University of Paris system and has taught at the 
University of Besancon (France) and the University of Sao Paulo.  He 
is also a lawyer who has served as a Sao Paulo state public 
prosecutor.  End Biographic Note. 
 
¶10.  (U) This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia. 
 
WOLFE