This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 000997 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016 
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S NORTHERN LEAGUE: THE CHALLENGE OF 
DEVOLUTION AND BOSSI'S HEALTH 
 
REF: A. ROME 0460 
     ¶B. 05 ROME 3816 
     ¶C. ROME 0725 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons 
 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Italy's Northern League faces two strategic 
challenges in the short and the long term: what to do if the 
pro-devolution referendum fails this summer and how to 
replace the party's founder and unquestioned leader Umberto 
Bossi, who is still weak after a devastating stroke two years 
ago.  An internal split between pragmatists and "true 
believers" will complicate the process.  Interviews with 
eight party leaders and party observers revealed no consensus 
for the future of the "Lega" in Bossi's absence.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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BOSSI IS THE LEGA'S UNCHALLENGED LEADER 
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¶2. (C) Poloff asked a group of young Northern League (Lega) 
leaders in the northern Lega stronghold of Lombardy who could 
eventually replace party founder and leader Umberto Bossi 
(64), whose health remains weak after a devastating stroke 
two years ago.  Daniele Belotti, Regional Counselor for the 
Lega and self-described "Legista at heart," said he is sure 
that Bossi would take care of that problem for the party and 
not leave them without a leader.  Belotti, 
Europarliamentarian Matteo Salvini and Provincial Counselor 
Paolo Grimoldi then explained to Milan Acting Pol/Econ Chief, 
Poloff and Milan Pol FSN that a true "Leghista" sees the 
party and Umberto Bossi as one in the same.  They described 
with reverence how he built the party from scratch and how he 
always knew where to guide the party.  They refused to 
speculate about a Bossi successor. 
 
¶3. (C) The next day, Regional Council Delegation Leader for 
the Lega Massimo Zanello told Poloff that the issue of who 
succeeds Bossi is a real problem for the Lega.  Zanello, who 
eschews wearing the Lega's trademark green tie or 
handkerchief, calls himself a Lega pragmatist and "not a true 
Leghista" in the eyes of those who call themselves Leghistas 
at heart. He told Poloff that Bossi remains the undisputed 
leader and symbol of the Lega.  He also called Bossi a 
calculating pragmatist with undisputed moral authority among 
the Lega's emotional base.  Zanello compared Bossi to former 
U.S. President Richard Nixon, saying that only Nixon among 
American political leaders had sufficient anti-communist 
credentials to open a pragmatic dialogue with China.  In 
Zanello's view, only Bossi could have forged a deal with PM 
Berlusconi without being viewed has having sold out the party 
to the establishment.  He continued that Bossi could even 
form an alliance with the center-left that would be 
acceptable to the base.  Looking forward, Zanello said that 
Bossi's health is weak and that there are no emerging leaders 
who combine undisputed credibility with the base and 
pragmatism.  He predicted the party would split among 
pragmatists and fundamentalists if Bossi's health fails 
completely. 
 
¶4. (C) Journalists Guido Passalacqua and Carlo Brambilla said 
that Bossi traditionally controlled every aspect of the 
Lega's direction and identity.  Like Zanello and the young 
Lega leaders, they said there is no clear second in command 
even if Bossi had technically anointed Lega Secretary 
Giancarlo Giorgetti as his successor during the last party 
congress five years earlier.  Both Passalacqua and Brambilla 
agreed that Giorgetti had not shown sufficient charisma to 
take over from Bossi.  Lega Spokesperson Niccoletta Maggi 
told Poloff that Varese Provincial President Marco Reguzzoni 
was an upcoming leader and a recent edition of "Panorama" 
confirmed that.  Ex-Minister of reform Roberto Calderoli is 
damaged goods as a result of the scandal involving his 
wearing t-shirts emblazoned with cartoons of the Prophet 
Mohammed (REF A).  According to the two journalists, Minister 
of Labor Maroni is the brightest leader in the Lega, but they 
echoed comments by Zanello that Maroni has not worked to 
establish a strong base of support within the party.  Both 
journalists agreed that Bossi's wife wields tremendous 
influence, especially now that Bossi spends more time at 
home, and they also said Bossi would like to see his son, 
Renzo, eventually take the realm. 
 
¶5. (C) Bossi's health is failing and he is losing touch with 
the people, according to the journalists and Zanello.  The 
journalists explained how Bossi fell asleep during a meeting 
with the Lega's inner circle to decide the party's candidate 
list for parliament.  More telling, they said he failed to 
show at a party meeting the next day to formally approve the 
list, and no one felt comfortable enough to develop a 
rank-ordered list in Bossi's absence so they listed potential 
candidates alphabetically.  Zanello said Bossi is losing 
contact with the people given his health limitations and is 
beginning to rely on a very reduced circle of advisers. 
------------------------------------ 
DEVOLUTION IS THE LEGA'S MAIN TARGET 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Without hesitation, Belotti told Poloff that the dream 
of every true Leghista is eventual secession from Italy.  He 
described that as the final goal of a long process that 
begins with Devolution, a limited form of federalism up for 
referendum this summer (REF B).  Lega adviser Germano Draghi 
told Poloff he thinks the Lega would leave the coalition with 
Berlusconi if the referendum fails, especially if it appears 
that Bossi's center-right allies only provided lukewarm 
support for the referendum.  The two journalists said Bossi's 
desire to stay in the government means he would only leave 
the coalition if the center-right loses the April 9-10 
elections and the devolution referendum fails. 
¶7. (C) In an interview with "Panorama," Bossi hinted at his 
thinking on the issue.  He said he is with Berlusconi because 
there is no chance for reform without him.  For Bossi, reform 
means Devolution.  He expressed confidence the center-right 
would win but noted the Lega would be free to do what it 
wants if the coalition loses in April.  Bossi calls the 
referendum a first step toward "fiscal federalisim."  The 
journalists, Maggi and Zanello all agreed that Bossi would 
look for a way to stay in the coalition if the Lega is part 
of the government and the referendum fails.  It remains very 
unclear whether the referendum will pass of not. 
 
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A NOTE ON LEGA POLICIES 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) In September, Maggi told Poloff that the Lega has been 
"good and quiet for five years because they wanted 
Devolution."  Though Bossi and the Lega have taken 
anti-immigration stances, positions against gay civil-unions 
and other conservative goals, the analysts agreed that Bossi 
has subordinated all other goals to achieving Devolution. 
Maggi said the Lega would "raise the tone" if the 
center-right loses, but that it would continue to be a loyal 
government ally as long as it sees that as the best path to 
Devolution. 
 
¶9. (C) Draghi, who is one of two foreign policy advisers to 
the Lega, said the Lega is not interested in foreign policy. 
He noted that Bossi saw the Lega's popularity implode after 
his visit to Belgrade during the Kosovo bombings and that 
Bossi realized "foreign policy is beyond his area of 
expertise" and risks votes.  Draghi continued that the Lega 
is a nationalist party of sorts and was not particularly 
sympathetic to Italian troop deployments in Iraq, but that he 
was willing support his coalition allies.  He said the Lega's 
only foreign policy principle is the support of separatist 
movements, like the Basques and Catalans in Spain. 
 
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CALDEROLI'S T-SHIRT FLAP 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (C) Opinions on Calderoli's t-shirt scandal were mixed. 
The two journalists said it had damaged Calderoli as a 
national figure but that many in the Lega base supported him. 
 Most of Milan's pollsters (REF C) said it had had little 
affect on support for the Lega, even if one showed it had 
caused some supporters to migrate to Forza Italia.  The 
scandal typifies the split inside the Lega between true 
believers and pragmatists.  The true believers told Poloff 
that nobody had publicly criticized the point Calderoli was 
making about free speech and appeared supportive of Celdaroli 
as they talked ominously about the "Muslimization of Europe." 
 Zanello called Calderoli's actions ridiculous and 
irresponsible.  In his "Panarama" interview, Bossi simply 
said he would not have done it himself. 
 
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UNITED AGAINST A NEW CENTER 
--------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) Several interlocutors noted Bossi's close 
relationship with Democrats of the Left (DS) President 
Massimo D'Alema, despite the obvious ideological differences. 
 They said the Lega and DS had flirted previously with the 
idea of a coalition in Lombardy and did not preclude a future 
coalition.  Many also said the DS and Lega have a common 
concern with the recreation of a new center party, which 
could exclude both of them from government. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶12. (C) COMMENT: Bossi is the founder, heart and mind of the 
Lega.  His poor health presents a classic succession problem. 
 The Northern League will hold a party congress next November 
at which Bossi will indicate his successor, even if he will 
likely remain the party's true leader as long as his health 
permits.  In any case, a clash between true believers and 
pragmatists seems inevitable in his absence.  The outcome of 
Italy's April 9-10 elections will determine tactical 
alliances, but the Lega faces longer term challenges.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
¶13. (U) This cable was drafted jointly with AmConGen Milan. 
SPOGLI