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030836Z Apr 06

UNCLAS ROME 000996 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ECON IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: The Economy, But Not Economic Reform, Begins 
to Dominate Italian Election Campaign 
 
Ref: A. ROME 725 
 
     ¶B. ROME 798 
     ¶C. NAPLES 102 
     ¶D. ROME 864 
     ¶E. ROME 863 
 
This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please 
protect accordingly, not for distribution outside the 
U.S. Government or on the Internet. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment: Italy's electoral 
campaign has begun to focus almost exclusively on 
incumbent Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Achilles 
heel: the economy.  Center-left challenger Romano Prodi 
threw Berlusconi on the defensive during a nationally 
televised debate March 14 that focused almost 
exclusively on economic issues.  Berlusconi delivered a 
weak performance in which he tried, unconvincingly, to 
paint a rosy picture of his accomplishments and of the 
Italian economy.  In turn, the center-left has offered 
a series of populist proposals to capture voters 
disillusioned by the poor economy.  What is missing 
from this campaign, however, are serious proposals for 
structural economic reform necessary for Italy to 
remain a strong and reliable ally actively engaged 
abroad.  End summary and comment. 
 
E l'Economia, Stupido. 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Italy's poor economic health has emerged as 
the key issue in its national elections April 9-10. 
Throughout January and February, incumbent Prime 
Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his Forza Italia party 
kept the debate focused on the appropriateness of his 
campaign tactics and other issues favorable to him (Ref 
A) to avoid a meaningful discussion of economic issues. 
Berlusconi's handlers recognize that economic themes 
are his weak point, since most Italians polled consider 
themselves worse off now than five years ago.  However, 
the moderators in the first Prodi-Berlusconi debate on 
March 14 limited the discussion almost entirely to 
economic themes in a format that did not permit 
Berlusconi to change the subject. Since then, the 
debate has almost entirely shifted to economic issues, 
and Berlusconi's occasional gaffes. 
 
Berlusconi: The Economic Record 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Berlusconi has the difficult task of defending 
his management of Italy's dismal economy.  The Italian 
business community expected great things from 
Berlusconi following his election in 2001.  They have 
been disappointed.  Italy's economy has stagnated over 
the last five years, averaging just 0.6 percent GDP 
growth per year since 2001, compared with 1.5 percent 
for the euro area, 1.6 percent for France, and 2.3 
percent for the UK. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The center-right government, however, has not 
been a complete wash for the Italian economy, as 
Berlusconi's critics charge.  The coalition improved 
labor flexibility with the 2003 "Biagi Law" (which made 
it much easier to hire workers on temporary contracts) 
and regularized 700,000 formerly illegal immigrant 
workers.  The Biagi Law and the legalization helped 
lower Italy's nominal unemployment rate from 9.1 
percent in 2001 to 7.7 percent in 2005.  The center- 
right also enacted modest pension reforms, gradually 
raising the retirement age for most male workers from 
57 to 60 starting in 2008, and eventually to 62 in 
¶2014. Finally, Berlusconi's coalition passed income tax 
cuts in 2003 and 2005 that amount to 350-500 euro per 
year for the average Italian family. 
 
Half Measures Frustrate Business. 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) While Berlusconi has attempted to grapple with 
some of Italy's fundamental problems, the fixes he has 
managed to implement have been the kind of half 
measures that please no one.  The pension reform, by 
raising the retirement age only modestly over such a 
long period, does little to ensure the long-term 
sustainability of the system; yet, it has cost the 
center-right support among working Italians.  The tax 
cuts, aimed at Italy's struggling middle class, have 
been offset by price increases for utilities and other 
government services.  Our business contacts frequently 
grumble that Berlusconi only uses his political capital 
for the things--such as decriminalization of false 
accounting or relaxation of media regulation--that 
benefit his personal legal and business interests. 
 
¶6. (U) As a result, Italy's business leaders--led by 
FIAT Chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, who also 
heads Italy's main employer association, Confindustria- 
-have become Berlusconi's harshest critics.  Relations 
between Berlusconi and Confindustria reached a nadir at 
the associations' annual meeting March 18 when the 
Prime Minister lashed out at Montezemolo and other 
association leaders, by saying their negativity was 
undermining his campaign.  Forza Italia campaigners 
claim this confrontation helped Berlusconi with small 
business owners unrepresented by Confindustria.  True 
or not, it certainly made it clear that Berlusconi does 
not have the strong backing of industry that he once 
enjoyed. 
 
The Optimist Versus the Cassandra 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Berlusconi's primary tactic, one that worked 
successfully for him in the 2001 election, is to exude 
confidence and optimism on the economy.  Berlusconi's 
campaign slogan, "The left says everything is going 
badly, let them lose!", sums up his approach to this 
election. 
 
¶8. (U) The left is using growing economic anxiety to 
attack the Berlusconi administration for increasing job 
insecurity and for presiding over a drop in household 
spending power that coincided with the switch to euro 
coins and banknotes.  Prodi has embraced the 
"Cassandra" label given to him by Berlusconi's 
supporters.  "They forget that Cassandra always told 
the truth," Prodi commented to the Corriere della Sera 
newspaper March 7, "even if she was condemned by the 
gods never to be heard." 
 
Election Issue #1: Jobs and Income 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) The heart of both the center-right and center- 
left economic platforms is reducing labor costs to 
boost income, spur greater employment, and counter 
declining worker productivity.  Prodi has pledged to 
reduce social security contributions by five percent-- 
three percent from the share paid by workers themselves 
and two percent from the share paid by employers. 
Prodi would pay for these reductions (and for his 
proposed increases in social spending outlined below) 
by raising the capital gains tax rate from 12.5 to 20 
percent. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Berlusconi's platform, meanwhile, calls for a 
three-percent cut in contributions--one percent for 
workers, two percent for firms.  Unlike the center- 
left, the center-right alliance has not explained how 
they would pay for their proposed reduction in social 
security contributions.  Furthermore, the center-right 
is attacking Prodi's plan to raise taxes, by saying 
this will hurt average Italians, stifle Italy's 
economic recovery, and lead to capital flight. 
(Berlusconi's tax amnesties may have coaxed some off- 
shore money back to Italy, but they create a moral 
hazard and stimulate further tax evasion.) 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment: A capital gains tax increase may 
prove politically risky for the center-left.  Though 
falling, Italy's savings rate remains at 12.7 percent, 
meaning many average citizens hold bonds and other 
investments that would be subject to these higher 
taxes.  Also, some economists warn that a higher 
capital gains tax will force the GOI to raise returns 
on government bonds, potentially gobbling up any 
revenue gain in higher debt service.  End comment. 
 
...And More Welfare. 
-------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) As part of its platform for boosting family 
income, the center left promises additional assistance 
for child care and government payments of euro 2,500 
per year for each child under three.  This is many 
times more generous than childbearing subsidies enacted 
under the center-right government, which included an 
income-dependant, one-time-only lump sum payment of 
euro 1,000 for each newborn. 
¶13. (U) Berlusconi's social platform, meanwhile, 
focuses on retirees.  The center-right promises that it 
will raise the minimum state pension from euro 600 per 
month to 800 for Italy's least-well-off senior 
citizens.  This measure is expected to produce a 
further (unfunded) burden of up to euro 7.2 billion per 
year on the national budget.  Promising pension 
increases worked for Berlusconi in 2001, and the Prime 
Minister delivered by increasing minimum rates to euro 
600/month, though the increase was limited to 
pensioners over 70 with no other source of income--a 
group that included 1.4 million of the 7.2 million 
people then receiving minimum state pensions.  Future 
pension increases will likely carry similar 
limitations. 
How and How Much to Help the South 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (U) Many of the key swing regions in this 
elections, including Puglia, are located in the South 
(the "Mezzogiorno"); and the center-left hopes to 
convince voters there that it will be more generous 
than Berlusconi.  The center-left promises a slew of 
aid for government services, anti-mafia campaigns, 
infrastructure, education, research and development, 
transportation, and support to low-income families. 
The center-left also pledges additional tax incentives 
for companies willing to invest in the Mezzogiorno. 
Berlusconi's southern strategy is hobbled by the 
presence in his coalition of the Northern League, which 
has vociferously opposed government hand-outs for the 
South.  The center-right platform focuses primarily on 
improving southern infrastructure, specifically by 
constructing the Straits of Messina Bridge to connect 
Sicily with mainland Italy. (See Refs B, C.) 
 
Dancing Around Reform 
--------------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) While economic issues have taken center stage 
in this campaign, the question of structural reform has 
not.  In a recent conversation with Econoff, Marcello 
Messori, an economic advisor to the center-left, was 
highly critical of the lack of straight talk in the 
current campaign.  Both sides, he observed, are 
focusing on relatively minor economic issues, such as 
social security contributions and child care, rather 
than addressing the need for fundamental economic 
reform.  Neither candidate, he said, is honestly 
telling voters that Italy, faced with growing 
competition from China and other low-cost producers, 
must make a painful shift from manufacturing to a 
service-based economy.  The center-left's unstated 
goal, Messori said, is to improve Italy's welfare 
system as a way of easing this transition.  Messori 
acknowledged, however, that Prodi's coalition is far 
from united, with the hard-left coalition members, such 
as the Rifondazione Comunista, stubbornly hostile to 
economic liberalization. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) As Italy's richest businessman, Berlusconi 
was swept into office in 2001 under the promise to 
return Italy to its former status as a first-tier 
economy.  Five years later, Italians are openly 
speaking about becoming the "next Argentina"--i.e., a 
once-great economic power that slid into third-world 
status through persistent debt, corruption, and 
mismanagement. 
 
¶17. (SBU) The reluctance of both sides to directly 
address Italy's fundamental economic problems is, in 
our view, a defining characteristic of this campaign. 
Though Italy is falling further behind the rest of 
Europe (not to mention East Asia and the United 
States), both the center-left and center-right have 
concluded that tough talk about Italy's economic ills 
is no way to win an election. 
 
¶18. (SBU) At every opportunity, the Embassy stresses to 
Italian audiences the need for the next GOI, whether 
led by Berlusconi or Prodi, to improve Italy's economic 
performance and competitiveness.  Without a more 
dynamic economy, Italy will have increasing difficulty 
playing a strategic, active role in the G/8, meeting 
its international commitments, and remaining an active 
partner with the United States in Iraq, NATO, 
Afghanistan, and future world challenges.  End comment. 
 
Spogli