This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001162 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: CERTIFIED VOTE RESULTS EXPECTED SOON 
 
REF: A. ROME 1115 
     ¶B. ROME 1107 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) A consensus is developing that the Italian Court of 
Cassation will issue certified election results next Tuesday, 
April 18, though reports that the recount could take a few 
days longer persist.  UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa told 
the press that election results would not change, and FI 
officials have told us privately they do not expect the 
recount to materially affect seat assignments in parliament. 
Press and political commentators have begun to speculate that 
PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and random accusations of 
voting irregularities were never intended to affect the 
election outcome in any material way. Rather, many believe 
Berlusconi is simply leveraging his own advantages, and 
weaknesses in Prodi's coalition, to best position himself and 
Forza Italia for the future.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
RECOUNT FINISHED AFTER EASTER HOLIDAY: LITTLE TO CHANGE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2. (C) Consensus is building that Italy's Cassation Court 
will officially certify results for Italy's April 9-10 
parliamentary election after the Easter holiday.  Monday, 
April 17 is a national holiday so speculation is that results 
might be released on April 18.  Center-left (CL) leader 
Romano Prodi announced April 13, "our victory will be 
certified in the next few days."  Sources inside PM Silvio 
Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) party speculated to Poloff 
that results will be ready "before the end of next week." 
 
¶3. (C) UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa, whose party 
currently is part of Berlusconi's center-right (CR) 
coalition, said April 13 that the recount would likely not 
change the results of the elections.  The press cites FI 
sources as saying that approximately 4,000 votes have been 
reassigned to the CR and notes that this is far short of the 
25,224 votes needed by the CR.  Political commentators have 
overwhelmingly concluded the Cassation Court will declare 
that the CL obtained the majority of seats in both the 
Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  Even FI sources have 
confided to us that they do not expect any material change in 
seat assignments in the two houses, though they remain 
hopeful. 
 
------------------------- 
ANGLING FOR THE ADVANTAGE 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Press and political commentators have begun to 
speculate that PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and his 
various accusations of voting irregularities were never 
intended to affect the election outcome in any material way. 
While one FI official told Poloff that with such close 
results and high stakes, Berlusconi felt obligated to call 
for a recount, he admitted that it is mostly about Berlusconi 
positioning himself for the future.  Another FI official was 
more direct: Berlusconi is trying to maximize his political 
leverage and ensure he has a role in picking up the pieces 
after a Prodi government inevitably falls. 
 
------------------------------ 
IS THE SENATE MAJORITY VIABLE? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) Many commentators maintain that Prodi's senate 
majority is not viable.  With his current coalition, Prodi 
holds a slim 158 to 156 advantage in the Senate.  One senator 
elected abroad remains unaligned and 5 of 7 senators for life 
sympathize with the CL.  For purposes of obtaining a vote of 
confidence in the Senate, it is unclear whether the senators 
for life would participate.  In any case, Senator for Life 
Francesco Cossiga has said he would switch sympathies from 
the CL to the CR if his peers participate in the confidence 
result.  A President of the Senate must be elected prior to 
the confidence vote, and filling an institutional position, 
that person would not be allowed to participate in the 
confidence vote.  Therefore, Prodi's initial Senate majority 
appears to be: 161-159-1 under the best of circumstances, or 
157-156-1 if the senators for life abstain. 
 
---------------------------------- 
EARLY DIVISIONS IN THE CENTER-LEFT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Speculation already exists regarding discontent within 
the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy Party with how 
Prodi is managing the coalition.  Forming the center of the 
center-left, these two parties apparently took umbrage when 
Prodi postponed a larger Union coalition meeting in order to 
hold a one-on-one with far-left Communist Renewal (RC) Party 
Secretary Fausto Bertinotti on April 12.  DS President 
 
SIPDIS 
Massimo D'Alema has previously expressed concern that Prodi 
remains overly affected by Bertinotti's 1998 decision to 
withdraw confidence from his first administration. D'Alema is 
featured in a full-page interview in the April 14 issue of 
the Corriere della Sera in which he speaks of the need for 
dialogue between the two poles and does not preclude the 
possibility of a CR leader becoming President of the Senate. 
Prodi and Bertinotti have dismissed this idea publicly, and 
the difference in tactic is being viewed by commentators as a 
message from D'Alema to Prodi and Bertinotti not to sideline 
the coalition's largest party. 
 
¶7. (C) A Berlusconi aide told Poloff that there are two axes 
within the CL: Prodi-Bertinotti and DS-Daisy.  Berlusconi's 
tactic is to use the election recount and other strains 
within the CL in order to weaken the Prodi government before 
it is born. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Italy's political class is abuzz with chatter ranging 
from Prodi assuming PM of a weak government to Berlusconi 
blocking Prodi from ever sitting in Palazzo Chigi.  It is way 
too early to place credence in much of this speculation. 
However, the mere fact that the political cognoscenti are 
describing his potential political demise means Prodi is 
playing a weak hand.  END COMMENT 
BORG