This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR DONNELLY AND DWORSKIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016 
TAGS: PGOV ECON ETRD IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: TRADE VICE MINISTER PLANS "COURAGEOUS" TRADE OFFER 
IF CENTER-RIGHT WINS 
 
REF: ROME 996 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Spogli for Reasons 1.4 b and d 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  During an April 3 courtesy call by 
Ambassador Spogli, Trade Vice Minister Adolfo Urso was 
cautiously optimistic of a narrow center-right victory in 
this week's elections.  He admitted that GOI positions on 
trade and the WTO have been driven by politics until now, but 
said a center-right victory would put the GOI in a position 
from which it could make "courageous" proposals at the WTO. 
End summary. 
 
Urso Cautiously Optimistic on Elections 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Urso, a political ally and confidant of Vice Prime 
Minister Fini, told Ambassador Spogli the outcome of the 
April 9-10 elections will depend on what happens during the 
final days of the campaign.  He predicts a narrow victory for 
the center-right coalition.  He noted cell phone text 
messages received by his National Alliance Party showed the 
electorate "is confused" about the issues.  According to 
Urso, Prodi's proposed tax on capital and property would "put 
the middle class in shackles," and would devastate the dream 
of home ownership.  According to Urso, high voter turnout, 
facilitated by the addition of a second day of voting, aids 
the center-right because the second day will make it easier 
for the center-right's core constituents to vote.  He said 
some center-right voters had difficulty voting on Sunday due 
to family or religious commitments.  He expects that seventy 
percent of the voters will go to the polls on Sunday, with 
the remainder, including the critical mass of center-right 
voters, casting their ballots on Monday. 
 
Launching the Italian Economy - Trade is Key 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Responding to a question from the Ambassador, Urso 
said he had enjoyed his five years as Vice Minister of Trade 
tremendously.  He likes the job's mix of politics and policy 
and has made over 100 visits to promote Italian businesses, 
including three trips to Brazil, and eight trips each to 
China and Russia.  Urso said that there is no one policy that 
will "re-launch" the Italian economy.  The solution to 
Italy's economic problems requires "a recipe" of policies of 
which improving infrastructure, encouraging innovation, and 
free trade are essential parts.  Pointing to the Renaissance 
and the 1970's, both periods of Italian economic prosperity, 
Urso noted that "Italy grows when it is open."  In Urso's 
opinion, Italy has an advantage over other European countries 
in dealing with economic problems because it is socially 
stable.  Unlike France, "Italian youth are not in the streets 
because they have strong ties to their families and small- 
and medium-sized businesses," he said. 
 
A Center-Right Victory Will Bring Courageous GOI Trade 
Proposals 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Turning to the issue of free trade and the WTO, Urso 
noted political and economic considerations have limited  GOI 
flexibility in the Doha Round.  Initially, the economic 
downturn which followed the September 11 attacks caused the 
GOI to be conservative in its approach to the Doha Round. 
More recently, GOI positions on agricultural market access 
and geographic indicators have been dictated by the political 
need to appeal to agricultural interests in this week's 
general elections.  Urso said that a center-right victory in 
the April 9-10 elections would put the government in a 
position to make a "courageous" proposal on trade, especially 
in agriculture and geographic indicators.  He noted that 
agriculture is a small part of the Italian economy, and that 
if the Italian economy is to grow, the interests of industry 
need to be given more weight.  He also noted that much 
processed food produced by Italian companies uses imported 
raw materials, e.g., pork from Eastern Europe, and that 
reduced trade barriers will make Italian food companies more 
competitive worldwide. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment.  Urso's recognition that Italy needs to 
engage in the WTO process for reasons other than protecting 
its agricultural interests is a breath of fresh air coming 
from a government beholden to agricultural interests until 
now.  If the center-right wins the elections, the political 
calculus that has driven GOI trade policy and given excessive 
weight to agricultural interests will change, and allow Urso 
to make the "courageous" offer he discussed with the 
Ambassador.  Although the Agriculture Ministry will still 
play an important role in formulating GOI trade policy, Urso 
clearly believes a center-right victory will shift the 
bureaucratic momentum to the Trade Vice Ministry. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment continued.  Urso, 48, is a young Vice 
Minister of Trade and has handled his portfolio well for five 
years.  It is likely that if the center-right wins the April 
9-10 elections, Urso will stay in his current job.  There is 
also speculation that, if Urso's National Alliance party does 
well at the polls, the Trade Vice Ministry could be spun off 
to form a Ministry of Foreign Trade, giving Urso full 
ministerial rank.  If the center-left wins the elections, 
Urso would logically become the opposition's ranking expert 
on foreign trade.  Given the degree to which his views on the 
benefits to Italy of free trade mirror our own, we will 
continue to seek opportunities to engage Urso on these issues. 
¶7.  (C) Comment continued.  Embassy also notes that the 
turn-around in Urso's thinking may be partially due to our 
pressing the GOI to rethink its real national interest in the 
trade round (i.e., moving from protecting Italy's small 
agricultural market to the real national interest -- opening 
industrial markets abroad for Italy's manufactured goods) and 
to the Ambassador's powerful op-ed just before the Hong Kong 
Ministerial urging Italy to act on its national interest. 
End comment. 
SPOGLI